Country Reports
2015
May 14, 2015
Kyrgyz Republic: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
Description: This paper discusses the Kyrgyz Republic’s Request for a Three-year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Performance under the previous ECF arrangement, which expired last July, was good. Macroeconomic stability was restored, fiscal consolidation was stronger than planned, monetary policy was enhanced through a new interest rate-based framework, and supervision was strengthened in the financial sector. Although performance under the last ECF arrangement was good, new challenges have emerged, and some key reforms have yet to be implemented. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a three-year arrangement under the ECF.
Notes: Also available in Russian
May 13, 2015
Ireland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Insurance Core Principles
Description: This paper discusses findings of the Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Insurance Core Principles on Ireland. It highlights that the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) has made significant progress in updating the regulatory regime, and the impending implementation of Solvency II (SII) is expected to address most of the regulatory gaps noted in the assessment. The Central Bank Supervision and Enforcement Act of 2013 has significantly enhanced CBI’s supervision and enforcement powers. CBI’s preparation for SII is well advanced, and a dedicated SII project has been in place since 2010.
May 13, 2015
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines inflation dynamics in Bulgaria from January 2012 to February 2015 and highlights some stylized facts about inflation in the country. January 2012 to February 2015 is the most relevant period for identifying factors contributing to recent deflation in Bulgaria, as well as their relative importance. Regression analysis suggests that during this period the inward spillover of low inflationary pressure from the European Union to Bulgaria has been the most significant factor, which was further exacerbated by consecutive electricity price cuts in 2013 and fast-falling global commodity prices, especially since late 2014.
May 13, 2015
Bulgaria: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bulgaria achieved modest economic growth in 2014, which is expected to continue in 2015, albeit at a lower rate. Consumer prices declined by an average 1.6 percent in 2014, among the sharpest contractions in the European Union, but are projected to turn positive late in the year. The banking system has shown substantial resilience to the damage to confidence resulting from the bank failure. The budget targets a 3 percent of GDP deficit in 2015, and a further 0.5 percentage point reduction per year in coming years. Measures to improve the composition and quality of expenditure and mitigate contingent liabilities arising from state-owned enterprises remain the key.
May 13, 2015
Ireland: Report on Observance of Standards and codes (ROSC)
Description: This paper discusses findings and recommendations of the Report on Observance of Standards and codes for Ireland. The Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) is the integrated financial supervisor in Ireland. As the primary regulator of the Irish financial system, CBI has overall responsibility for the supervision of insurers and insurance intermediaries authorized in Ireland. The authorities need to address the significant challenges faced by CBI in attracting and retaining supervisors and to enhance the CBI’s independence. CBI is also advised to review the supervisory risk appetite underpinning Probability Risk Impact Supervisory System, including potential reputational risks.
May 13, 2015
Chad: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access
Description: This paper discusses Chad’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), and Request for Modification of PC, and Augmentation of Access. Performance under the ECF supported program was broadly satisfactory in 2014, with four of six quantitative PCs observed as of end-December, and sustained implementation of the structural reform agenda. The authorities have adopted decisive measures to address large oil revenue shortfalls and close the external financing gap, particularly through a significant fiscal adjustment in 2015 and beyond. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement.
Notes: Also available in French
May 13, 2015
Chad: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative—Completion Point Document and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
Description: This paper discusses the status of Chad under Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). Chad does not qualify for topping-up under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative based on end-2013 debt data. Creditors accounting for more than 87 percent of total HIPC-eligible debt have given satisfactory assurances of their participation in the enhanced HIPC Initiative. Nearly all multilateral creditors and Paris Club creditors have agreed to participate. The authorities are working toward obtaining participation of all the remaining creditors. Upon reaching the completion point under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative, Chad will also qualify for additional debt relief under the MDRI.
Notes: Also available in French
May 12, 2015
Brazil: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines infrastructure investment in Brazil. Brazil has inferior overall infrastructure quality relative to almost all its export competitors. Brazil’s infrastructure endowment ranks low by international standards, and its low quality affects productivity, market efficiency, and competitiveness. Areas in which Brazil’s competitiveness has lagged include, but are not limited to, education, innovation, governance, and justice. Brazil’s infrastructure gap has become a major obstacle to growth and filling this gap will entail increasing investment and also stepping up other reforms.
May 12, 2015
Brazil: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brazil’s growth has decelerated in recent years. The boost from decade-old reforms, expanding labor income, and favorable external conditions, which enabled consumption and credit-led growth and underpinned sustained poverty reduction, has lost steam. Investment has been sluggish, reflecting eroding competitiveness, a worsening business environment, and lower commodity prices. The IMF staff projects negative output growth of 1 percent in 2015, with some drag from tighter fiscal and monetary policies and from the cuts in investment by Petrobras, adding to the downward momentum in activity carried over from 2014.
May 8, 2015
Morocco: The Sub-Saharan Expansion of Moroccan Banks: Challenges and Opportunities
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents an overview of the cross-border expansion of Moroccan banks in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It discusses policies to minimize possible negative spillovers and address the main supervisory challenges. It builds on the analysis and main results of a Pan-African Cross-Border Exercise—a joint initiative by the IMF’s African and Monetary and Capital Markets departments, with the collaboration of the Middle East and Central Asia department. It highlights that that Morocco could play an instrumental role by providing technical assistance to other supervisors in the region, and the SSA region may benefit from the Moroccan experience of good practices in many areas and relatively advanced supervisory capacity.