Country Reports

May 27, 2015

Peru: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic policies and fundamentals and visible gains in poverty reduction. However, like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. Lower metal prices and weaker demand from trading partners were a major drag on private investment and exports. On the domestic front, an unexpected drop in subnational public investment level and temporary supply disruptions in mining, fishing, and agriculture compounded external shocks. Real GDP is projected to expand at about 3.75 percent in 2015, contingent on the reversal of the supply shocks and policy stimulus of 2014. Growth is expected to rise in 2016–17.

May 27, 2015

Peru: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper describes recent investment dynamics in Peru, and assesses the relationship between private investment and its fundamentals. Over the last decade, average growth in Peru exceeded 6 percent, anchored by a substantial contribution from investment. A series of structural reforms in the 1990s, growing political stability, and the implementation of a solid macroeconomic framework in the early 2000s set the stage for this investment boom. Actions were also taken to strengthen public investment implementation and to enhance the overall investment climate. Now that commodity prices have softened and interest rates are expected to rise, addressing the next generation of structural reforms will be crucial to sustain investment and growth.

May 27, 2015

Switzerland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Switzerland’s economy has performed relatively well in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with growth reaching 2 percent in 2014. However, the economic environment became more complicated in late 2014, as increased capital inflows forced the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to start intervening heavily to defend its exchange rate floor of 1.20 francs per euro. Over the medium term, the economy is expected to recover gradually. As the economy adjusts to the exchange rate appreciation, growth is projected to rise gradually back to about 2 percent over the medium term while inflation increases to about 1 percent.

May 22, 2015

Republic of Korea: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Korea’s growth momentum that had been building since early 2013 has stalled. Average quarterly growth rate declined to about 0.5 percent in the last three quarters of 2014 from about 1 percent in the previous four quarters. A turning point was the April 2014 Sewol ferry accident, which had a surprisingly large and persistent impact on consumer and investor sentiment. Growth is projected to be in a range centered about 3 percent in 2015. The main external risks include slower-than-expected growth in Korea’s main trading partners, the impact of a persistently weak yen on Korean export industries, and side-effects from the global financial conditions.

May 21, 2015

Republic of Kosovo: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Kosovo has proven relatively resilient and stronger than in its western Balkan neighbors, averaging slightly more than 3 percent over the last five years. Steady remittances from the diaspora living in advanced European economies continue to be a key driver of growth, supporting as they have private consumption and investment. Medium-term growth prospects of some 3.5 percent per year, while reasonable, are not strong enough to steadily lift incomes towards regional standards, or to create enough jobs in a country with very high unemployment. Kosovo’s banks remain liquid, well capitalized, and profitable. Nonperforming loans ratios are slightly elevated at 8.4 percent, but are stable and fully provisioned.

May 19, 2015

Albania: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria

Description: This paper discusses Albania’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria (PC). Economic recovery is under way, but growth remains below potential. The low oil price is expected to have a muted effect on growth and on the balance of payments, as pass-through is weak and Albania is only a small net oil exporter. The program is on track. All end-December 2014 and continuous PCs and most indicative targets were met, with comfortable margins. The IMF staff supports the completion of the Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement, as well as the modification and waiver of applicability of PC.

May 18, 2015

Portugal: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper takes stock of structural reforms in Portugal from a firm-level perspective. Structural reforms were the main available policy tool to mend Portugal’s accumulated imbalances. Portugal’s macroeconomic toolbox was severely constrained by monetary union membership and spillover considerations. This paper discusses what structural reforms were supposed to achieve at the firm level. It documents a few stylized facts about Portuguese firms and describes the structural reform agenda. The paper also reports the results of a firm survey on the perceived effectiveness of the structural reforms.

May 18, 2015

Portugal: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Portugal’s significant flow imbalances have largely been corrected in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis, with employment increasing, output expanding, and the current account balance posting surpluses for the first time in decades. The economy has expanded at close to 1 percent per year on average since early 2013, with growth driven largely by consumption. The near-term outlook is benefiting from the trifecta of record-low interest rates, a weakening euro, and low oil prices. Output is expected to increase by 1.6 percent in 2015 and by 1.5 percent in 2016, with outlook for inflation improving as well.

May 15, 2015

Federated States of Micronesia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Micronesia’s economy is stagnating, as externally funded infrastructure projects are moving slowly. Difficulties in the business climate, in particular those related to land tenure issues, continue to hold back private sector development. Real GDP growth of about 0.1 percent is estimated for the fiscal year 2014. The Micronesian economy is projected to grow at 0.6 percent in the medium term, while risks on the outlook are tilted to the downside. Growth in 2015 is projected to remain subdued at 0.3 percent, while consumer prices are projected to further decline to negative 1.0 percent thanks to the continued pass through of low oil prices.

May 14, 2015

Chad: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Joint Staff Advisory Note on the 2013 Monitoring Report of the National Development Plan 2013-15

Description: This Joint Staff Advisory Note discusses progress in implementing Chad’s National Development Plan (NDP) in 2013. The NDP was overall satisfactorily implemented in 2013. By end 2013, about two-thirds of strategic indicators and one-half of intermediary indicators retained in the results framework did record progress in line with retained targets. In addition, the contribution of the 2013 national budget to the NDP implementation was close to initial plans, reflecting structural progress in terms of budget execution. The adoption of a robust Results Framework also allowed the authorities to effectively monitor NDP implementation, in terms of inputs, outputs, and outcomes.

Notes: Also available in French