Country Reports

July 2, 2015

Greece: Preliminary Draft Debt Sustainability Analysis

Description: This paper analyzes the debt sustainability in Greece. At the last review in May 2014, Greece’s public debt was assessed to be getting back on a path toward sustainability, though it remained highly vulnerable to shocks. By late summer 2014, with interest rates having declined further, it appeared that no further debt relief would have been needed under the November 2012 framework, if the program were to have been implemented as agreed. But significant changes in policies since then are leading to substantial new financing needs. To ensure that debt is sustainable with high probability, Greek policies will need to come back on track.

Notes: Nine Key Questions on Greece
Read the the Update Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) -- July 14, 2015.

July 2, 2015

Pakistan: Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria

Description: This paper discusses Pakistan’s Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). All end-March 2015 quantitative PCs were achieved, as well as the indicative target (IT) on cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support program. The IT on federal tax revenue was missed by a small margin, reflecting legal challenges to some of the tax measures and the negative impact of lower global commodity prices. The authorities have taken action to improve revenue and remain on track to meet the end-June 2015 fiscal deficit target. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for modifications of the end-June net international reserves PC, and completion of the seventh review under the arrangement.

June 30, 2015

Philippines: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Description: This paper discusses the findings of Fiscal Transparency Evaluation on Philippines. Improving fiscal transparency has been a priority in the Philippines over recent years. The government’s public financial management reform strategy has helped initiate a wide variety of reforms, which are beginning to bear fruit. Fiscal reporting is relatively comprehensive, frequent, and timely, with many areas of good and advanced practices. Fiscal risk analysis and management is relatively strong in the Philippines compared with other countries. However, improvements are needed in a few areas, especially to capture of risks from guarantees and public–private partnership, assess the scope of tax expenditures, and introduce a longer-term perspective in the fiscal sustainability analysis.

June 29, 2015

Oman: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume I

Description: This paper discusses the findings and recommendations of the Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module for Oman. It is observed that Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics since the 2004 ROSC mission. The main progress has been achieved in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments, in particular the introduction of the producer price index, and improvements in data relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. The report also recognizes the need for Oman to move to higher data standards and identifies shortcomings in statistical practices and products that remain to be addressed.

June 26, 2015

Iceland: Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions

Description: This paper discusses the recommendations of the Sixth Post-program Monitoring Discussions with Iceland. Iceland recently updated its capital account liberalization strategy. The strategy takes a staged approach, starting with steps to address the balance-of-payments overhang of the old bank estates—prioritizing a cooperative approach with incentives—in a manner consistent with maintaining stability. Growth is accelerating in 2015 and is expected to reach 4.1 percent, backed by significant investment, wage- and debt relief-fueled consumption, and booming tourism. The general government is projected to record a surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2015, helped by large one-offs. Small deficits are also expected over 2016–20.

June 26, 2015

Republic of Serbia: First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement

Description: This paper discusses Serbia’s First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement. The program is broadly on track. All end-March 2015 performance criteria and indicative targets were met with comfortable margins. All end-March structural benchmarks were implemented, although with a delay, and all prior actions were met. The economy has stabilized, on the back of lower oil prices and stronger than expected trading partner growth. Inflationary pressures remain subdued. The external position has strengthened. Despite monetary easing, credit growth remains sluggish, and nonperforming loans continue to pose a challenge. Risks to the program come from possible spillovers from regional developments and increase in market volatility, as well as delayed implementation of structural reforms.

June 24, 2015

Haiti: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper examines opportunities and challenges for growth in Haiti. Achieving a sustained increase in living standards in Haiti will require deep-seated reforms across a range of areas. Diversifying the export base is needed to cushion the impact of severe shocks that have reduced per capita income and prevented a sustained increase in the capital stock. Integration into global-value chains would also allow Haiti to take advantage of its proximity to the U.S. market and favorable trade preferences to generate employment, spur the creation of human capital, and allow Haiti to begin climbing the value added chain.

June 24, 2015

Haiti: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that a drought that affected agricultural output slowed Haiti’s GDP growth to 2.7 percent in FY2014, but inflation remained in the mid-single digits. The overall fiscal deficit of the central government remained high, in part owing to one-off investment related to Hurricane Sandy. International reserves remained appropriate at about 5 months of imports. The implementation of structural reforms to support growth underpins the medium-term outlook, which is nonetheless subject to downside risks. GDP growth in FY2015 is expected to be between 2–3 percent, and to increase to 3–4 percent in the medium term.

June 23, 2015

Cyprus: Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility; Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion; and Rephasing of Access

Description: This paper discusses Cyprus’s Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion (PC), and Rephasing of Access. Economic developments have been encouraging. The recession in 2014 was milder than expected, and GDP growth was positive in the first quarter of 2015 for the first time in almost four years. Program performance has been generally strong. Compliance with quantitative conditionality has been good, and the authorities have advanced structural reforms. Further efforts to strengthen banking supervision and restructure banks are needed. The ongoing structural reform program is also crucial for public finances and growth.

June 22, 2015

Ireland: Staff Report for the Third post-Program Monitoring Discussions

Description: This paper discusses the recommendations of Third Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Ireland. Ireland’s strong economic recovery is continuing in 2015, following robust growth of 4.8 percent in 2014. A range of high frequency indicators point to an extension of the solid recovery momentum into 2015, with growth increasingly driven by domestic demand as well as exports. Financial conditions remain highly supportive despite some recent bond market volatility. Ireland’s economic rebound is in full swing, yet fiscal restraint must be maintained in 2015. Fiscal policy should make solid progress toward balance in the favorable economic environment, and the limited fiscal space in coming years should be used to support durable growth.