Country Reports
2015
July 7, 2015
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
July 7, 2015
United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Review of the Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for the Banking and Insurance Sectors-Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note reviews the key attributes of effective resolution regimes for the banking and insurance sectors in the United States. The United States’ resolution regime for financial institutions has been significantly enhanced since the financial crisis. Over the past several years, the U.S. authorities have undertaken significant efforts to develop the capability to deploy the Orderly Liquidation Authority, if and when needed, to safeguard financial stability. Of particular importance is the development of the so-called single point of entry strategy, designed to take advantage of most systemically important financial institutions in the United States being organized under a holding company structure.
July 7, 2015
United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Anti-Money Laundering And Combating The Financing Of Terrorism (Aml/Cft)-Technical Notes
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the United States in the areas of anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). The United States’ AML/CFT legal and institutional framework has yet to address deficiencies identified in the most recent Financial Action Task Force mutual evaluation report regarding ownership information for U.S. corporations and trusts. In particular more rapid progress is needed to enhance transparency of legal persons to bolster financial system integrity. Trusts have a different legal and institutional framework, and draft regulations have been produced to strengthen financial institutions’ obligations. These measures are however progressing slowly.
July 7, 2015
United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Stress Testing-Technical Notes
Description: This Technical Note discusses key findings of stress testing on the United States under the Financial Sector Assessment Program. Several stress tests were used to quantify the potential impacts of risks and vulnerabilities in banking and non-banking sectors. The stress tests run by the authorities and by companies under the Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) suggest that most large bank holding companies (BHCs) are resilient to shocks similar to the last crisis. For BHCs, the IMF staff’s solvency stress tests over the initial stressed period are largely in line with the DFA stress testing results, and suggest that the system is generally robust, although some BHCs would fall below the hurdle rate in the stressed environment.
July 7, 2015
Italy: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper establishes a causal link between public sector efficiency at the provincial level and firm productivity using data for about 450,000 Italian firms. It emphasizes that significant productivity gains could be realized if public sector efficiency improves from currently low levels. If efficiency rises to the frontier in all provinces, output per employee would increase 9 percent for the average firm. Implementing the public administration reform agenda and recommendations of the 2014 spending review and competition authority could help deliver some of these productivity gains.
July 7, 2015
Italy: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Italy’s economy is emerging gradually from a prolonged recession. Financial market sentiment and confidence indicators have improved substantially since end-2014. Despite the recent bouts in volatility, sovereign bond yields have fallen to precrisis levels buoyed by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. Bank and corporate funding costs have declined. Rising business and consumer confidence has stemmed the decline in domestic demand. Against this backdrop, the economy is expected to recover moderately, with real GDP projected to expand by 0.7 percent in 2015, supported by domestic demand and net exports.
July 7, 2015
United States: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the current state of housing finance in the United States. Although a number of important steps have been taken to address the structural weaknesses exposed by the crisis in mortgage markets, comprehensive housing finance reform remains the largest piece of unfinished business. Mortgage markets, even eight years after the start of the crisis, continue to function with extensive government support. Reform of the government-sponsored enterprises, which remain in conservatorship, has stalled—generating uncertainty and complicating other policy initiatives. However, there has been progress in building other components for a well-functioning housing finance system.
July 7, 2015
United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses the results of the Financial System Stability Assessment on the United States made under the Financial Sector Assessment Program. It is found that welcome steps have been taken in strengthening the financial system. The Financial Stability Oversight Council now provides a useful forum for coordination, the regulatory perimeter has expanded, information sharing among agencies has improved, supervisory stress testing is leading changes in risk measurement and management, and new resolution powers have been established. However, new pockets of vulnerabilities have emerged, partly in response to the continuing search for yield. This requires a continuing focus on strengthening the micro and macroprudential framework.
July 7, 2015
United States: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Systemic Risk Oversight and Management-Technical Notes
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for the United States in the areas of systemic risk oversight and management. Significant steps have been taken by the U.S. authorities to reduce risks in a number of areas, but progress is most advanced in the area of banking sector resilience, and less so in other areas which play a major role in the financial system. Further actions are needed to address data gaps, resolve remaining impediments to data sharing, support coordination and consultation on prudential standards and regulations, enhance risk monitoring frameworks, and provide additional clarity on the nature and scale of identified emerging systemic threats.
July 2, 2015
Republic of Croatia: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that after six years of persistent recession, Croatia’s economy is showing first signs of recovery. Robust retail sales and value-added tax receipts suggest that private consumption has bottomed out. Employment has stabilized and corporate profits are recovering. Tailwinds from a favorable external environment have helped, notably lower energy prices, stronger euro area growth, and ample domestic and external liquidity that contain debt servicing costs. For 2015, the economy is projected to grow by 0.5 percent. Net exports are expected to make a modest positive contribution to growth.