Country Reports
2015
July 20, 2015
Samoa: Financial Sector Assessment Program
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS The Samoan financial sector is dominated by commercial banks and Public Financial Institutions (PFIs). The four commercial banks provide almost 60 percent of credit to the economy, and the most important PFIs, the Samoa National Provident Fund, and the Development Bank of Samoa, account for around 30 percent. There is also a small and shrinking offshore banking sector without linkages to the domestic financial sector. Banks are liquid and report high capitalization, but close supervisory attention is required in light of high and rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and the results of the FSAP stress tests.1 Banks are still dealing with the effects from past natural disasters, and assessments of their health are impeded by the significant uncertainty surrounding the quality of balance sheet data, in particular on asset quality and provisioning. High loan concentration and exposure to natural disasters represent significant risks to the financial system. The stress tests illustrate that the local banks are relatively less resilient and could not withstand a severely adverse scenario. Thus, close monitoring, through on-site supervision and asset quality reviews, paired with prompt corrective action and a plan to address NPLs (including in PFIs) as needed, are top priorities. PFIs are particularly vulnerable to shocks due to low asset quality and strong linkages with state owned enterprises. This is largely the result of increased policy lending in response to the extraordinary economic stress from recent natural disasters. Significant stress in PFIs could have significant impact on other financial institutions (FIs) through the effect on the economy, and explicit and implicit government guarantees raise potential fiscal risks. The authorities, therefore, are encouraged to step up oversight of the PFIs, including through enhanced data collection and on-site reviews. Where substantial adjustments are needed, new lending should be restricted. The Central Bank of Samoa (CBS), as the main supervisor and regulator of domestic financial institutions, has made important efforts to strengthen its oversight in recent years. These efforts include conducting on-site inspections, introducing elements of risk-based supervision, expanding staff resources, initiating PFI supervision, submission of a new CBS Act (CBA) to reform governance and safeguards, promoting financial inclusion, and progress on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT). Still, much remains to be done, including improving the quality and coverage of the financial sector data, upgrading legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks, and building capacity and staff.
July 20, 2015
Grenada: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request For a Waiver of a Performance Criterion, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review
Description: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. The program was approved on June 26, 2014 and the first review completed on December 12, 2014. Grenada has received SDR 4.04 million (about US$5.9 million) so far under the arrangement and the equivalent of SDR 2 million (about US$3 million) will be made available upon Executive Board completion of the second review. Debt restructuring. Grenada has achieved a critical milestone in its debt restructuring, reaching agreement on key restructuring terms with its largest private creditor group. The agreement implies a net present value reduction in the related debt of 54 percent and will reduce public debt by 13 percent of 2017 GDP once fully executed. The restructuring of Grenada’s debt with the Export-Import Bank of Taiwan Province of China at end-2014 reduced the stock of public debt by another 2 percent of GDP. The authorities expect to finalize negotiations with remaining creditors by end-2015. Program Performance. Overall program implementation remains solid. All but one quantitative performance criteria for the second review were met with wide margins. Major reforms of the fiscal policy framework to anchor debt sustainability have been completed, albeit with some delay, including new fiscal responsibility legislation and the reform of the bulk of the tax incentive regime to eliminate discretion. The strategy to reform parastatal entities has also been completed and its implementation started. Second Review. Discussions focused on meeting the 2015-16 fiscal targets and the structural reform agenda. Modifications are proposed to the 2015 performance criteria to accommodate one-time costs of structural reforms and to the ceiling on non- concessional borrowing to clarify when a loan is considered contracted. Proposed structural conditionality seeks the transparent and sustainable management of citizenship-by-investment receipts and to bring the chart of accounts in line with international best practice.
July 20, 2015
Samoa: 2015 Article IV Consultation—Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
Description: KEY ISSUES Outlook and risks. Growth is recovering gradually from natural disasters and inflation remains subdued. The current account deficit is expected to narrow on lower international oil prices and a planned fiscal consolidation. The main external risk is the occurrence of another natural disaster in the presence of already high public debt and vulnerabilities in financial institutions. The main domestic risks center around a delay in rebuilding macroeconomic buffers, in particular through fiscal consolidation, reforms of public financial institutions and financial oversight. Improving financial resilience. A recent financial sector assessment program (FSAP) mission identified risks in some commercial banks and public financial institutions (PFIs). The role of PFIs needs to be refocused to reduce contingent liabilities for public finances and to support the development of private financial markets. Regulation and supervision of financial institutions needs to be improved to reduce the risk of an adverse feedback loop from banks and PFIs to the public finances in case of another external shock. Rebuilding macroeconomic buffers. A gradual fiscal consolidation is planned to reduce public debt to the target of 50 percent of GDP by 2020, mainly through improvements in revenue and a reduction in current expenditure. While there is no significant evidence of misalignment, and reserves are adequate by standard metrics, a stronger external position with higher reserves would provide greater resilience. Boosting growth. The authorities’ structural reform initiatives emphasize a revitalization of agriculture and food processing, tourism, and an enabling environment for business. Reforms to SOE governance are beginning to bear fruit, but the government should stay the course in planned privatizations and amendments to legislation to reduce the burden of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the public finances. Improvements in financial infrastructure will improve the flow and allocation of credit.
July 17, 2015
Lebanon: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: The Syrian crisis and the associated inflow of refugees continue to dominate Lebanon’s short-term outlook, compounding long-standing policy weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Political paralysis has set in, with virtually no progress on the structural front. Growth has remained modest and insufficient to make a dent in rising poverty and unemployment. A welcome improvement in the primary fiscal position in 2014 was largely due to temporary factors, and will not be sustained absent adjustment efforts—implying that, without additional effort, Lebanon’s already-sizable public debt burden will only worsen. Financial conditions have nonetheless remained stable, as deposit inflows continue to fund the economy and sizeable buffers support the credibility of the exchange rate peg.
July 17, 2015
Antigua and Barbuda: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and Second Post-Program Monitoring
Description: KEY ISSUES Context. The new government that came to power in June 2014 inherited serious fiscal and external payments problems, including arrears to the Fund and other creditors, and unresolved banking sector problems. Moreover, public debt remains at an unsustainable level of close to 100 percent of GDP, while economic activity has been weak with output still well below the level reached at the time of the 2008/09 global financial crisis. Main policy recommendations • Implement fiscal measures equivalent to 2.8 percent of GDP in 2015 to tackle cash flow problems and achieve an underlying primary surplus of 3.0 percent of GDP by 2016 to address debt sustainability challenges. Underpin measures with structural fiscal reforms. • Use Citizenship by Investment Program revenues to pay down arrears and debt and fund bank resolution. The program should be managed in line with the high standards of governance and transparency set out in the law. • Move expeditiously as planned with the resolution of ABI Bank and support initiatives underway to strengthen the regional bank resolution framework, in particular, the passage of needed legislative reforms. • Improve competitiveness by moderating labor costs; increasing energy efficiency, including by better performance of the state-owned utility company; and improving the investment climate. Authorities’ views. The authorities broadly agreed with staff’s assessment of the economic situation and risks, and its recommendations to reduce fiscal vulnerabilities and strengthen the banking system. They were more optimistic about growth prospects for 2015 based on expectations for substantial FDI. They are opposed to increases in taxes and plan to focus fiscal efforts on cutting recurrent spending. On bank resolution, they wish to work closely with the Fund and World Bank to speedily address outstanding problems. They paid the arrears to the Fund and committed to timely servicing of Fund obligations. Data provision. Data provision is adequate for surveillance and post-program monitoring although significant areas for improvement remain, in particular on labor market statistics, measurement of arrears, financial information on state-owned enterprises, and national accounts by expenditure components.
July 15, 2015
Germany: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the ongoing upturn in Germany is benefiting from the euro depreciation and lower energy prices, and is underpinned by a healthy fiscal position and sound corporate and household balance sheets. Employment growth has been robust, supported by strong immigration. The unemployment rate hit an additional post-reunification low at 4.7 percent. The oil price drop brought inflation temporarily close to zero, which has contributed to lift real wage growth to a 20-year high. The current moderate growth momentum is expected to continue as robust real wages buoy private consumption and euro depreciation buttresses exports, opening the way for a recovery in machinery and equipment investment.
July 15, 2015
Mali: Technical Assistance Report-Anti-Corruption and Anti-Money Laundering
Description: This paper discusses key finding of the Technical Assistance Report on Anticorruption and Anti-money Laundering in Mali. The report suggests that the adoption and effective implementation of an Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework compliant with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations would support the fight against corruption in Mali. Mali can improve the compliance of its AML/CFT framework with the FATF Recommendations by taking internal measures consistent with the West African Economic and Monetary Union directive. Mali can also work for the adoption of a regional AML/CFT framework consistent with the requirements of the FATF.
Notes: Also available in French
July 15, 2015
Germany: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper identifies episodes of large and sustained current account surpluses in advanced economies (AEs) and compares Germany’s ongoing surplus with those episodes. In doing so, the paper aims to put Germany’s external position in a historical and cross-country context drawing from 55 years of data across 20 AEs. The comparison shows that the real growth of all domestic demand components, particularly of private investment, was remarkably weak during the latest sustained surplus episode in Germany in comparison with both “normal times” and other AE surplus episodes. Neither Germany’s nor a typical AE surplus episode has been accompanied by visible, broad-based competitiveness or terms of trade gains.
July 14, 2015
Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Poland has recovered from the 2012–13 slowdown. Growth accelerated to 3.4 percent in 2014, and further to 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2015, on the back of buoyant domestic demand, supported by improving labor market and financial conditions. However, inflation has remained negative since July 2014 owing to low commodity prices and weak imported inflation. The outlook is for continued robust growth and subdued inflation amid downside risks. Economic expansion is expected to continue, with growth projected at 3.5 percent in 2015 and over the medium term.
July 14, 2015
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper employs a suite of models to determine the main drivers of inflation in Poland. Inflation in Poland has stayed below the lower bound of the target band for about two years with external shocks adding to downward pressure during 2014. The paper provides a range of inflation forecasts to assess the likelihood of protracted low inflation. The paper considers the main factors underlying recent inflation developments and assesses the importance of first-round indirect and second-round effects of external shocks for headline inflation. Using a variety of models, the paper also provides possible forecast paths for inflation in Poland.