Country Reports
2015
September 14, 2015
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report
Description: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ economic recovery from the global economic crisis has been curbed by a series of significant natural disasters. These, combined with the economic downturn following the global financial crisis, have prevented the economy from returning to its long-term potential real GDP growth. The overall fiscal balance is estimated to have narrowed to 4.75 percent of GDP in 2014. After an estimated 1.1 percent growth rate in 2014, growth is projected to pick up modestly to 2.1 percent in 2015 on improvements in tourism and agriculture and enhanced implementation of much-needed rehabilitation and reconstruction projects.
September 9, 2015
Norway: 2015 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy performed well in 2014 despite the sharp fall in oil prices toward the end of the year. Mainland GDP grew at 2.2 percent, with weaker investment demand being offset by stronger government consumption. Unemployment stayed at a low level in 2014, but has recently edged up to 4.5 percent in June 2015 according to the labor force survey. The near-term outlook has weakened owing to lower oil prices. Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.3 percent in 2015 with weaker private investment and consumption. Looking further ahead, the medium and longer term present challenges of managing a transition away from the oil-dependent growth model.
September 9, 2015
Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program - Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses key findings and recommendations of the Financial System Stability Assessment for Norway. Norway’s financial system coped well with the global financial crisis and has further increased buffers to deal with potential shocks, but significant financial imbalances have also built up since then. Stress tests suggest that under severe macroeconomic shocks, banks and life insurers could face important but manageable capital shortfalls. The authorities have taken significant measures to improve the oversight framework, but further strengthening is needed. The regulatory and supervisory framework is generally good, but some weaknesses need to be addressed.
September 9, 2015
Norway: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes Norway’s economy that has a maturing oil and gas industry. Norway’s half century of good fortune from its oil and gas wealth may have peaked. Oil and gas production will continue for many decades on current projections, but output and investment have flattened out, and the spillovers from the offshore oil and gas production to the mainland economy may have turned from positive to negative. Thus far, economic policy has needed to focus on managing the windfall, and Norway’s institutions have been a model for other countries. Going forward, the challenges are expected to become more complex.
September 9, 2015
Saudi Arabia: 2015 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annexl
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the rising oil prices and production resulted in large external and fiscal surpluses for Saudi Arabia. Real GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.8 percent in 2015, and then further to 2.4 percent in 2016 as government spending begins to adjust to the lower oil price environment. Nevertheless, government debt is very low and was 1.6 percent of GDP at end-2014. The current account surplus declined to 10.9 percent of GDP in 2014. It is expected to move into a small deficit in 2015 but return to surplus during 2016–20. Over the medium term, growth is expected to be about 3 percent. Inflation is likely to remain subdued.
Notes: Also Available in Arabic
September 8, 2015
South Africa: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Regimes for Mining and Petroleum: Opportunities and Challenges
Description: This Technical Assistance report reviews South Africa’s tax system and also examines the fiscal regime with a view to generating a sustainable revenue contribution from mining and petroleum in future. Mining has historically been the mainstay of the South African economy. Mineral exports remain the principal contributor to foreign exchange earnings on the current account. South Africa is not yet a significant producer of crude oil or natural gas. Oil and gas exploration nevertheless shows promise. Taxation is far from top of the list in current challenges facing the development of extractive industries in South Africa. The national goal of economic and social transformation in favor of Historically Disadvantaged South Africans has major impact on the mining sector.
September 4, 2015
Philippines: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the interaction between real and financial cycles in the Philippines and their relationship to the global financial cycle. It finds that the surge in capital inflows between 2010 and mid-2013 can largely be explained by global financial factors such as global risk aversion, with exchange rate expectations and domestic fundamentals playing a secondary role. Moreover, local bond yields and retail bank rates seem to be driven by the same global factors and the U.S. term premiums. The paper suggests that the quantitative impact of VIX shocks on domestic demand via capital flows and asset repricing and of changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields on bank credit and investment, are significant.
September 4, 2015
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2015 Article IV Consultation-First Post-Program Monitoring Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic situation of St. Kitts and Nevis has continued to improve since the completion of the IMF-supported home-grown economic program in July 2014. Continued rapid inflows under the Citizenship-By Investment program have led to a surge in construction activity, and supported a large increase in government and Sugar Industry Diversification Fund investments and spending, including on the People Employment Program. These factors, together with the ongoing recovery in tourist arrivals fueled rapid GDP growth of about 6 percent in 2013 and 2014. The near-term outlook remains strong, but there are risks on the horizon.
September 4, 2015
Philippines: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Philippines
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Philippine economy continues to expand strongly in line with potential growth. Real GDP grew by 6.1 percent in 2014, driven by household consumption, private construction, and exports of goods and services. Economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2015, owing mainly to temporary factors, including the effects of dry weather on agricultural production, weak global demand for exports, and slow budget execution. The outlook for the Philippine economy remains favorable despite uneven and generally weaker global growth prospects. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2015, as lower commodity prices lift household consumption and improved budget execution raises public spending.
September 4, 2015
Ghana: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver and Modifications of Performance Criteria - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
Description: This paper discusses Ghana’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waiver and Modifications of Performance Criteria (PC). Program performance has been broadly satisfactory. All but one PC were met at end-April 2015 and structural benchmarks were largely completed, some with delays. However, there was nonobservance of the continuous PC on the ceiling on gross credit to government by Bank of Ghana in April by a small margin and the indicative targets on inflation and social protection spending were missed, the latter because of a very slight delay in some spending. The economic environment remains challenging and risks are tilted to the downside. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review.