Country Reports

September 29, 2015

Senegal: Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal

Description: This paper discusses Senegal’s Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Performance under the two previous PSIs was mixed. The new PSI aims to support a three-year program of macroeconomic reforms designed to advance the authorities’ growth strategy—Plan Senegal Emergent (PSE). The growth goals enshrined in the PSE are achievable provided reforms are successfully implemented. Early signs indicate positive momentum owing to observed progress in reform implementation and favorable external factors. However, more remains to be done to solidify this momentum. Also, there are significant but manageable risks, which include sluggish implementation of reforms and election-driven pressures in 2016 and 2017. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a PSI.

Notes: Also available in French

September 28, 2015

The Gambia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Gambia

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Gambia has experienced large balance of payments and fiscal imbalances, caused by persistent policy slippages in recent years and financial difficulties in public enterprises. The IMF supported the authorities’ efforts through a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement in early April 2015 and a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). However, major policy slippages have occurred since the RCF disbursement, pushing the SMP off track and worsening the outlook considerably. In light of the elevated level of public debt, the government should prioritize infrastructure investments that help address poverty and improve the business environment. The authorities are encouraged to continue their efforts to improve supervision capacity to enhance financial stability.

September 25, 2015

Cyprus: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus

Description: This paper discusses Cyprus’ Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Cyprus continues to recover from the crisis, and program performance remains generally strong. Risks to the program remain, although their impact would likely be manageable. The domestic political situation remains a challenge to policy implementation. Despite the reduced real and financial linkages between Greece and Cyprus, developments in Greece have the potential to affect Cyprus through the confidence channel. Based on the continued progress under the program and policy commitments going forward, the IMF staff supports the completion of the eighth review and the proposed modifications of PCs.

September 24, 2015

Jamaica: Ninth Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica

Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s Ninth Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Macroeconomic indicators are improving, but growth remains sluggish. Growth has been revised down to 1.4 percent for FY2015/16 as drought continues to impede agricultural growth for a second year in a row. The program is on track. All the quantitative PCs were met, and structural reforms are broadly on schedule. The transition of the retail repo contracts to a trust-based framework has been completed. Based on continued strong program implementation and the authorities’ policy commitments, the IMF staff recommends completion of the ninth review.

September 23, 2015

Kenya: First Review Under the Twelve-Month Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Non-Observance of Performance Criterion, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya

Description: This paper discusses Kenya’s First Review Under the Twelve-Month Stand-by Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC), and Request for Modification of PC. All quantitative PCs for end-March 2015 were met, but the continuous performance criterion on external arrears was not observed owing to the emergence of temporary technical arrears on external debt. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review and supports the authorities’ request for a modification of PCs for end-September 2015, and for waivers for nonobservance of the PCs on external arrears.

September 18, 2015

Myanmar: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes how Myanmar can manage its natural resources for people’s development. Myanmar’s natural resource endowments provide much needed national wealth to finance the country’s development. Given Myanmar’s low tax revenue, mobilizing resource revenues is particularly important in the current macroeconomic environment of widening fiscal and current account deficits, inflationary pressures and exchange rate depreciation. The government should consider revising the fiscal regime for natural resources and introducing a resource rent tax to maximize the revenue stream in an efficient way. To better manage the impact of volatile resource revenues on the budget, consideration could be given to anchoring fiscal policy on an expenditure rule over the medium term.

September 18, 2015

Myanmar: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar

Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economic growth remains strong, but macroeconomic imbalances have increased significantly over the past year. Real GDP growth for FY2014/15 (April–March) is estimated to have reached 8.5 percent. The fiscal deficit increased to 3 percent of GDP in FY2014/15, while credit to the private sector continued to grow strongly at 35 percent (year over year) in March, albeit lower than in FY2013/14. The current account deficit widened to more than 6 percent of GDP, largely reflecting a rapidly rising trade deficit. The Myanmar economy is set for strong growth in 2015 amid signs of overheating. The economy is expected to grow by 8.5 percent, reflecting strong growth momentum and expansionary macroeconomic policies.

September 17, 2015

Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Crisis Management, Bank Resolution, and Financial Sector Safety Nets

Description: This Technical Note reviews crisis management, bank resolution, and financial sector safety nets in Norway. Arrangements for crisis management, bank and group resolution, and the financial sector safety nets are well developed and tested in Norway. Roles, responsibilities, accountabilities, and information-sharing arrangements among the relevant bodies are generally well defined and functioning. The current legal framework provides substantial powers and flexibility to deal with failing or failed banks but needs to be strengthened in several respects. The Financial Supervisory Authority has begun to implement a recovery plan requirement for the largest banks. The authorities also make good use of simulation exercises to enhance crisis preparedness.

September 17, 2015

Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Stress Tests

Description: This Technical Note presents key findings of insurance sector stress tests on Norway. Although the financial condition of insurance companies under Solvency I has generally been sound, insurers face major challenges going forward, thus placing an important premium on sound risk management and effective oversight by supervisors. The stress tests (under Solvency II) confirm that life insurers are vulnerable to severe shocks. The stress tests pointed to the high sensitivity of life insurers to market risks such as equity prices, real estate prices, and credit spreads. The risks to insurers are particularly pronounced if interest rates fall further from the current levels.

September 17, 2015

Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note- Macroprudential Policy

Description: This Technical Note reviews macroprudential policy in Norway. The authorities have taken or announced a wide range of macroprudential measures to address systemic risk. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the authorities have deployed a range of measures to safeguard the financial system in the country. These measures include higher capital requirements, including early adoption and implementation of the European Union capital regulations, additional capital buffers, etc. These macroprudential measures have focused primarily on building the resilience of banks through higher capital requirements. Good progress has been made on reciprocity agreements to ensure that domestic macroprudential policy measures apply to all banking activities with Norwegian customers.