Country Reports
2015
October 14, 2015
Honduras: First Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
Description: This paper discusses Honduras’ First Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and Standby Credit Facility (SCF). Program implementation for the first reviews has been strong. All 2014 performance criteria and indicative targets were met, most with significant margins. The authorities have also created fiscal space within the program to increase social spending and support efforts to reduce poverty. On the structural side, December 2014 and March 2015 benchmarks were also generally observed. The revised program proposed for 2015 envisages further strengthening fiscal and net international reserves targets. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first reviews under the SBA and the SCF Arrangements.
October 14, 2015
Turks and Caicos Islands: Financial Sector Assessment Program - Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses key findings and recommendations made in Financial System Stability Assessment for Turks and Caicos Islands. Although the financial oversight framework has significantly improved, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) should strive for further progress. Major advances have been made regarding the operational independence of the FSC and staffing. Nonetheless, the outdated Banking Ordinance and Insurance Ordinance need urgent overhaul. The functioning of the FSC should be strengthened by enhancing Board oversight, filling key positions at Board and senior management levels, strengthening communication and consultation with the industry, and improving the supervision and risk assessment capacities of FSC staff.
October 13, 2015
Democratic Republic of the Congo: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Democratic Republic of the Congo
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s macroeconomic performance remained strong through the first half of 2015 despite a difficult external and domestic environment. Real GDP growth in 2014 is estimated at 9.2 percent, driven by copper production and the service sector. The medium-term outlook is favorable but subject to downside risks. Real GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 9.2 percent in 2015—among the highest rates in the world—and average 8.4 percent in 2016–17 before stabilizing at about 6 percent in 2018–20.
October 13, 2015
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper takes stock of poverty in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Poverty has receded in the DRC over the last decade on the back of gradual stabilization in the security and political situation, strong economic growth, and sharp decline in inflationary pressures. Most social indicators also improved during the period. However, poverty remains pervasive with a level still among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa, and DRC will likely not achieve any of the Millennium Developments Goals by 2015. Policy actions should focus on fostering the development of labor-intensive sector, increasing social spending, and redirecting public resources to the poorest regions of the country.
October 8, 2015
Zimbabwe: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitor Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Zimbabwe’s Second Review of the Staff-Monitored Program. The program is on track. Four of the five quantitative targets for end-June 2015, and all the structural benchmarks for the second review were met. Although a recently contracted $200 million nonconcessional loan breached the quantitative target on nonconcessional borrowing, it avoided the accumulation of additional external arrears. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ intentions to continue seeking financing through grants and loans that are as concessional as possible, and to limit contracting non-concessional loans to within the ceiling set under the program, and to prioritize investment that would eventually raise Zimbabwe’s capacity to repay.
October 6, 2015
Pakistan: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
Description: This paper discusses Pakistan’s Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC). Two end-June 2015 quantitative PCs and three indicative targets were missed, but deviations were either minor or temporary and corrective actions have been taken as needed. The authorities remain on track to meet the end-September 2015 program targets. Although the program’s monetary PCs were met, the PCs on the fiscal deficit and government borrowing from the central bank were missed. The end-September structural benchmark (SB) to improve the central bank’s interest corridor and the end-November SB to enact the Credit Bureau Bill were met ahead of time.
October 1, 2015
Namibia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines macro-financial risks associated with housing boom in Namibia. Namibia has enjoyed stable and steady progress in financial sector developments, but vulnerabilities might have built up. The recent evolution of Namibia’s housing prices raises a question as to whether the prices reflect economic fundamentals. Overall, estimates based on cross-country evidence of countries that experienced a boom-bust episode in the housing sector suggest that Namibia’s real economic growth could be 3 to 27 percentage points lower than under the baseline scenario over a three-year period. Under the most adverse scenario, in particular, GDP is expected to contract 9.9 percent in real terms over the three-year projection period.
October 1, 2015
Namibia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Namibia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Namibia’s GDP growth slightly moderated to 4.2 percent in 2014, largely owing to lower global demand for Namibia’s main export commodities. Inflation remained contained, owing to low international commodity prices. The government’s large-scale fiscal program contributed to job creation, and unemployment declined somewhat. Namibia’s growth outlook is clouded with downside risks, while facing significant policy challenges. Its main policy challenges are therefore to strengthen its resilience to exogenous shocks and manage systemic risks in the financial sector, while promoting inclusive growth and job creation.
September 30, 2015
Australia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the housing prices in Australia. Housing prices in Australia have increased strongly over the past two decades, including by comparison internationally. Thus housing prices are often argued to be overvalued. Many counter-arguments have been put forward for why such measures are flawed. This paper argues that housing prices are moderately stronger than consistent with current economic fundamentals, but less than a comparison to historical or international averages would suggest. International comparisons of price-to-income ratios suggest that Australia is broadly in line with comparator countries, although significant data comparability issues make inference difficult.
September 30, 2015
Australia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Australia’s economy is now facing a large transition as the mining investment boom winds down and the terms of trade has fallen back. Growth has been below trend for two years. Annualized GDP growth was about 2.2 percent in the first half of 2015, with particularly weak final domestic demand, and declining public and private investment. Capacity utilization and a soft labor market point to a sizeable output gap. Nominal wage growth is weak, contributing to low inflation. The FY2015/16 Budget projects a return to surplus in 2019–20.