Country Reports
2015
November 9, 2015
Liberia: Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report and Press Release
Description: This paper discusses Liberia’s Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). From mid-2014 to mid-2015, Liberia faced a serious Ebola virus disease crisis, which triggered the declaration of a state of emergency. End-June 2014 performance criteria (PCs) and indicative targets were met, except the revenue floor and the floor net foreign exchange position of the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL), and the ceiling on net domestic assets. The authorities are expected to request waivers for the missed PCs in light of corrective actions undertaken to improve revenue collection and strengthen the net foreign exchange position of the CBL. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request to extend the ECF arrangement.
November 3, 2015
Angola: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic fiscal risks and the benefits of improved fiscal risk management in Angola. Angola faces fiscal risks coming from multiple sources, such as volatility in oil prices and production, macroeconomic shocks, weak macroeconomic forecasting; weaknesses in public fiscal management, energy subsidies, potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company Sonangol to the Treasury, and contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. Addressing these risks requires action in various fronts, including more transparent fiscal reporting, improved forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, developing a fiscal stabilization fund with more flexible deposit and withdrawal rules, strengthened public expenditure controls, and more timely oil revenue transfers from Sonangol to the Treasury.
Notes: Also available in Portuguese
November 3, 2015
Angola: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the oil price shock is adversely impacting the economy of Angola. While oil production has recovered following the completion of maintenance work, non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent in 2015. The economic situation in 2016 is likely to remain challenging as international oil prices are not expected to recover and risks are on the downside. Growth is projected to remain stable at 3.5 percent in 2016, with the oil sector growing by about 4 percent. The non-oil sector is expected to show a small improvement.
Notes: Also available in Portuguese
October 30, 2015
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia’s recent macroeconomic performance has continued to be strong overall, although with some rising domestic and external vulnerabilities. Economic growth in 2014/15 was buoyant, supported by booming manufacturing and construction sectors. However, inflation has been on the rise, with domestic food prices pushing it above 10 percent. External vulnerabilities have also increased as exports of goods and services slowed significantly, while imports continued growing fast. In the medium term, the IMF staff forecast strong growth at 7.5–8 percent. Public investment is expected to moderate, while private investment is projected to increase only gradually.
October 29, 2015
Bulgaria: Financial Sector Assessment Program - Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision
Description: This paper discusses key findings and recommendations of the Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision on Bulgaria. Within the Banking Supervision Department, the Special Supervision Directorate (SSD) has been assigned multiple activities that go beyond its primary objective of ensuring integrity in the banking sector. The Bulgarian National Bank is not empowered to require a bank to change its internal organization or structure. It is recommended to refocus the activity of the SSD on its core mandate of financial integrity. This recommendation can be achieved by assigning nonsupervisory activities to other Directorates, preferably outside the Banking Supervision Department.
October 29, 2015
St. Kitts and Nevis: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
Description: This paper discusses St. Kitts and Nevis’ Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-by Arrangement. The program focused on (1) an ambitious fiscal consolidation, (2) a comprehensive debt restructuring, and (3) a further strengthening of the financial sector. These goals aimed to address the key issues behind the debt crisis, and the potential financial sector outcomes of the restructuring. The program had many successes. The debt reduction was one of the largest in recent times, the headline fiscal and current account balances improved substantially, important tax and public financial management reforms were enacted, and sovereign risk was removed from the banks. Robust growth also resumed.
October 28, 2015
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to rebound to more than 2 percent in 2015, as economic activity is picking up in Europe. Industrial activity and exports have been gathering momentum. Domestic political risks weigh heavily on the outlook. The risk of policy slippages and delays in implementation of the Reform Agenda is significant given the complex political set up and the strong opposition to reforms from vested interests. On the external side, risks are more balanced, as stagnation in Europe, possible financial market strains, or geopolitical tensions could dampen growth, while a faster recovery in Europe or the resolution of trade issues with the European Union could spur exports.
October 28, 2015
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes government spending in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The size of the public sector in BiH is one of the largest in the region, owing mainly to a complex and highly decentralized governance structure. BiH spends a greater share of public resources on current spending items, notably on wages and social transfers. Moreover, poorly targeted social benefits generate adverse incentives with respect to informality and labor force participation. To enhance economic growth, BiH will need to refocus its spending and increase its efficiency, chiefly on spending on human and physical capital.
October 27, 2015
Republic of Serbia: Second Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement and request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
Description: This paper discusses Serbia’s Second Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria (PCs). The economy of Serbia is gradually recovering from the 2014 recession, supported by strong export performance coupled with a smaller-than-expected fall in consumption. Inflation has remained below the National Bank of Serbia tolerance band due mainly to low imported inflation. All end-June PCs and indicative targets were met with significant margins. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the Second Review under the SBA, given the program performance so far and the policy commitments going forward.
October 27, 2015
Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Bank Intervention and Resolution and the Deposit Guarantee System
Description: This Technical Assistance Report assesses the bank resolution framework and deposit guarantee system in Slovenia. There are three necessary requirements for effective bank resolution: (1) a special bank resolution regime, (2) advance preparation for bank intervention and resolution, and (3) an adequately funded Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS). Slovenia’s banking law provides for the first, while the recommendation to create a Resolution Unit within Bank of Slovenia has been adopted. The extant DGS, however, is an ex post funded scheme that does not fulfill the third criteria. Slovenia must implement the European Union Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive into national law, which calls for an ex ante funded DGS.