Country Reports
2015
November 17, 2015
Finland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes structural shocks, productivity, and growth in Finland. Finland has gone from being a top-performing advanced economy to a growth laggard since 2007. The rapid decline of the (previously) high productivity information and communications technology sector in recent years has weighed on overall growth and productivity. An analysis of industry-level data indicates that shifts in the sectoral distribution of labor and capital toward lower productivity sectors are also contributing to slower aggregate productivity growth. Firm-level analysis suggests that the aggregate total factor productivity impact of reallocating resources within sectors is limited, although there is more scope to reallocate resources between sectors.
November 17, 2015
Mexico: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Mexico has continued to grow at a moderate pace, and capital outflow pressures have been limited. The flexible exchange rate has helped the economy adjust to external shocks, while inflation has remained low and stable. Mexico is implementing a broad range of structural reforms, which should help lift potential growth over the medium term. The economy is projected to grow by 2.25 percent in 2015. Construction activity has moderated after a strong rebound in the second half of 2014. Manufacturing and services remain the main driver of growth, although weaker-than-expected U.S. demand affected manufacturing exports in early 2015.
November 17, 2015
Mexico: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes fiscal multipliers in Mexico. Estimates of fiscal multipliers––obtained from state-level spending––fall within 0.6–0.7 after accounting for dynamic effects. However, the size of multipliers varies with the output gap. The planned fiscal consolidation—under the estimated multipliers—is projected to subtract on average 0.5 percentage points from growth over 2015–20. However, there are offsetting effects. The positive growth impulse of lower costs on manufactured goods production is estimated to reach 0.5 percentage point in 2015 and 2016, largely offsetting the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth in the near term.
November 16, 2015
Cambodia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Cambodia remained strong with a growth rate at 7 percent in 2014, notwithstanding appreciation of the real effective exchange rate following U.S. dollar strengthening and growing competition from other low-cost garment producers. Inflation fell in 2014 and through 2015, owing to strong external disinflationary pressures from lower food and oil prices. The short-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at 7 percent in 2015, while inflation is projected to rise gradually to about 2 percent by end-2015. The fiscal deficit is projected to rise modestly to 2 percent in 2015 as a result of strong measures to improve revenue administration.
November 13, 2015
Togo: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Togo’s economic growth has remained strong in recent years, averaging 5.4 percent in 2013–14, on the back of productivity gains in the agricultural sector and public investment in transport infrastructure. The fast pace of public investment has laid the basis for higher growth but has also contributed to a pronounced increase in public debt and current account deficit. Output growth is expected to be sustained over the medium term, although current account and debt pressures are unlikely to abate. Growth is expected to average 5.5 percent in 2015–18, supported by agricultural production, transportation services linked to international trade, and the impact of investments in transport infrastructure.
Notes: Also Available in French
November 13, 2015
Guatemala: Technical Assistance Report-Statistics Technical Assistance and Training Evaluation Mission
Description: This paper discusses the key findings of the report on statistics technical assistance (TA) and training evaluation mission on Guatemala. It is observed that overall users trust macroeconomic statistics in Guatemala. Data-producing agencies viewed TA and training provided by Statistics Department, IMF during 1998–2015 as most effective to improving the quality of statistics. There is broad recognition of the Bank of Guatemala’s key role in producing and disseminating statistics. There was consensus that TA and training were effective and helped enhance data quality of all datasets, but to a modest extent Government Finance Statistics and Producer Price Index. The effectiveness of TA largely depends on capacity built in the main data-producing agencies.
November 13, 2015
Togo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the assessment of economic activity in Togo in absence of quarterly GDP series. Togo collects about 40 macroeconomic indicators monthly that span a wide range of sectors of the economy. The selection of the variables for the economic activity index is conducted by finding the combination of variables. The indicators are aggregated into an index using a methodology used by the Conference Board. Then an economic activity index is constructed that effectively replicates the historical growth rates of real GDP in Togo. The selected index minimizes the deviations between the growth rates of the indicator and actual real GDP growth over 2002–13.
Notes: Also Available in French
November 12, 2015
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper compares the growth performance of Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries with that of comparative countries. During the last two decades, the average growth of CEMAC countries has been slower than the sub-Saharan African average. The results of the analysis show that convergence of CEMAC countries toward emerging market levels has stalled, while some lower-income, faster-growing economies have been catching up. Decomposing growth by contributing factors reveals that the total factor productivity has had a negative impact on CEMAC’s growth.
Notes: Also Available in French
November 10, 2015
Bangladesh: Progress Report-Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
Description: This paper discusses progress on Sixth Five Year Plan (2011–15) of Bangladesh. For the broad picture of performance of the Sixth Plan during the first three years in terms of achieving major development targets relating to economic growth, employment and poverty reduction is generally positive. The economy has made further solid progress in these areas, which is reassuring. Progress has also been made in transforming the economy from a rural-based agrarian economy to one that is more modern urban-based manufacturing and services-based. Export performance is on track, which has provided the impetus for the expansion of the manufacturing sector.
November 10, 2015
Bangladesh: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Bangladesh’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The current ECF arrangement, approved in April 2012, is drawing to a close. Over its three years, macroeconomic stability has been buttressed: growth is strong, inflation has eased, the public debt-to-GDP ratio has remained stable, and foreign reserves remain adequate. Progress on revenue mobilization, however, has been weak. Political uncertainty remains a key risk to the outlook. All performance criteria for the combined reviews have been met, all prior actions have been completed, and macroeconomic stability has been maintained. The IMF staff recommends completion of the combined reviews.