Country Reports
2015
December 23, 2015
Kingdom of Swaziland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses Swaziland’s export diversification and quality. Swaziland’s export structure has experienced sizable changes over the past 15 years. The share of textile exports has halved, and the expiration of trade benefits under Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) implies that the share of textile exports would decline further. Swaziland’s exports are relatively diversified with good quality index compared with its peers. However, diversification and product quality have declined in recent years, while the expiration of the access to AGOA calls for enhanced efforts in this area. Improving education and training, strengthening institutional framework, and further developing the financial market will help improve export diversification and quality upgrading.
December 21, 2015
Islamic Republic of Iran: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Iran
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Iran has slowed down significantly since the fourth quarter of 2014/15 owing to sharp decline in global oil prices, tight corporate and bank balance sheets, and postponed consumption and investment decisions ahead of the expected lifting of economic sanctions. Twelve-month (point-to-point) inflation has declined to about 10 percent in recent months, largely reflecting lower food and beverage inflation, and the inflation rate is expected to remain close to 14 percent by year-end. Prospects for 2016/17 are brighter, owing to the prospective lifting of economic sanctions.
December 21, 2015
Chad: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
Description: This paper discusses Chad’s Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs) and for Modification of PCs. Despite the weaker economy, performance under the ECF-supported program was broadly satisfactory in the first half of 2015, with four of the six PC met, and progress on the structural reform agenda in line with the program objectives. The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review under the ECF arrangement, the waivers of nonobservance for the PCs on contracting of nonconcessional external debt, and nonaccumulation of domestic payment arrears and the modification of PCs.
Notes: Also Available in French
December 21, 2015
Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses some options to strengthen Iran’s fiscal framework, and highlights the need for a medium-term framework. Fiscal policy design in Iran faces numerous challenges. Some are current, such as managing volatile oil revenue while addressing development needs. Other challenges are related to demographic pressures from new entrants to the labor market, as the country needs to prepare from aging pressures in the decades to come. With medium-term planning, macroeconomic stability, and adequate spending, fiscal policy could play a critical role in fostering growth. Ultimately, addressing these issues would help Iran achieve its objective of becoming one of the fastest-growing emerging economies.
December 18, 2015
Republic of Serbia: Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
Description: This paper discusses Serbia’s Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). The program is delivering good results. Significant fiscal tightening and efforts to address structural weaknesses and improve the business climate have helped restore growth and boost confidence and foreign direct investment. All end-September PCs were met with significant margins. However, there was a minor deviation in the indicative criterion on domestic arrears, and implementation of structural benchmarks has faced delays. Modifications of the end-December fiscal performance criteria are proposed to allow recognition of past liabilities.
December 18, 2015
Bolivia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bolivia has achieved strong economic performance and poverty reduction over the past decade. Real GDP growth has averaged about 5 percent since 2006, and the poverty ratio has declined by 16 percentage points. Real GDP growth is projected to stay relatively strong at 4.1 percent in 2015, despite the sharp decline in oil prices that is starting to have an impact. A sizable public investment budget, strong credit growth to the private sector, and robust private consumption are expected to support activity. Growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5 percent over the medium term, as the full impact of the new commodity price normal is felt.
December 18, 2015
Mali: Technical Assistance Report-Mining and Petroleum Taxation (Diagnostic Assessment)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses key findings of the assessment of Mali’s mining and petroleum taxation. It is highlighted that the transparency of the mining or petroleum sector in Mali could be improved through the online publication of agreements signed with operating companies and their feasibility studies. The establishment of a standardized framework for the economic analysis of mining and petroleum project feasibility studies would improve governance in the natural resources sector. It is also recommended to establish the ring-fencing principle in a revised Mining Code and in the draft Petroleum Code.
Notes: Also Available in French
December 18, 2015
Malawi: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper develops a framework to study the macroeconomic and distributional implications of alternative Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) reforms in Malawi. The FISP is one of the largest social expenditure items in Malawi, aimed at improving food security and reducing poverty. The FISP program targets poor rural households and provides them with a coupon for a predetermined amount of fertilizer at a heavily subsidized rate. The results of the study discussed in this paper show how policies that seek to improve the efficiency of expenditure can be consistent with higher and more equitable growth. It also focuses on the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of reducing the subsidy rate for the FISP.
December 18, 2015
Malawi: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that bold economic reforms undertaken in mid-2012 in Malawi transformed the policy environment and greatly improved the outlook of the economy. Over 2012–14, real GDP growth and inflation averaged 4.3 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively. The economic outlook remains difficult reflecting the negative impact of weather-related shocks, the ongoing suspension of budget support, persistently high inflation and weaker global demand which could hurt Malawi’s exports. Real GDP growth is projected to fall by 2.7 percentage points to 3 percent in 2015.
December 17, 2015
Niger: Sixth and seventh Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Request for Augmentation of Access, and Extension of the Current Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Niger
Description: This paper discusses Niger’s Sixth and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), Request for Augmentation of Access, and Extension of the Current Arrangement. Niger’s growth slowed in 2015 owing to lower agricultural and natural resource sectors activity. Over the medium term, real economic growth is expected to pick up as major projects in oil and mineral extraction come to fruition. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for waivers for the unmet PC on domestic financing and domestic arrears repayments at end-December 2014, and that of domestic financing at end-June 2015.
Notes: Also Available in French