Country Reports
2016
January 12, 2016
Pakistan: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation, Ninth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that starting from a difficult position in 2013, Pakistan has made substantial progress in reducing near-term economic vulnerabilities. Economic growth gradually increased from 3.7 percent in FY2012/13 to 4.2 percent in FY2014/15. During the same period, efforts to reduce power subsidies and raise tax revenue have lowered the budget deficit from 8.4 to 5.4 percent of GDP, although part of this adjustment reflected clearance of quasi-fiscal liabilities in the energy sector in 2013. In the medium term, growth is expected to reach about 5.5 percent, and inflation is expected to gradually rebound to the State Bank of Pakistan’s target of mid-single digits.
January 8, 2016
Republic of Mozambique: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of natural gas project for Mozambique. Results, which are based on the IMF Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries model, suggest that, by the mid-2020s, half of the country’s output will be generated by natural gas. However, the fiscal revenues from the projects will remain moderate until the mid-2020s because of large depreciation costs for gas liquefaction facilities. Although the economic potential emerging from the projects is tremendous, macroeconomic and fiscal implications are quite sensitive to international commodity price developments and other risk factors, highlighting that the government’s authorities would be well-advised in taking a cautious approach.
Notes: Also Available in Portuguese
January 8, 2016
Republic of Mozambique: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria, and Request for an 18-Month Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Mozambique
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite lower commodity prices and a weaker global environment, Mozambique’s economic prospects remain positive given planned massive investment in natural resources. Although GDP growth averaged 7 percent over the last five years, Mozambique’s per-capita income and human development index remain low. There is a need to continue implementing policies that support fiscal sustainability, infrastructure investment, and inclusive growth. Mozambique’s economic outlook remains robust. Growth of 6.3 percent is expected in 2015, and remains below potential at 6.5 percent in 2016, mainly owing to a stagnant mining sector and substantially tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
Notes: Also Available in Portuguese
January 8, 2016
Liberia: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing and Extension of the Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
Description: This paper discusses Liberia’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), Modification of PC, and Rephasing and Extension of the Arrangement. The end-June 2014 quantitative PC on government revenues and central bank net foreign exchange position, and one indicative target on net domestic assets were not met. Only three out of seven structural benchmarks for the fourth review were met. Based on the authorities’ corrective actions, the IMF staff supports completion of the delayed fourth ECF review, and the authorities’ request for an extension and re-phasing of the program to end-December 2016.
January 7, 2016
Benin: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews the vulnerability and risks associated with Benin’s banking sector. Banks in Benin show significant vulnerabilities. Although financial soundness indicators do not present immediate stability concern, the quality of banks’ loan portfolio is low and has constrained credit to the private sector. Stress tests confirm that credit risk is of particular concern. Structural impediments are at the root of these risks, including problems with property titles, information asymmetries, and the weak judiciary, which complicates contract enforcement. Structural reforms and a re-calibration of fiscal policies to reduce the government’s lending needs are necessary to mitigate these risks over time.
Notes: Also Available in French
January 7, 2016
Honduras: Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Honduras’ Second Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility (SCF). All 2015 end-June performance criteria and indicative targets were met, most with significant margins. On the structural side, June and September 2015 benchmarks were broadly observed. The revised program proposed for 2016 envisages a further strengthening of fiscal and net international reserve targets. The authorities are pressing ahead with structural reforms, including the introduction of a Fiscal Responsibility Law, an overhaul of tax administration, and reforms to the Honduran Social Security Institute. Based on performance to date and the authorities’ updated intentions and commitments, the IMF staff recommends completion of the second review under the SBA/SCF arrangement.
January 7, 2016
Benin: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that for the third consecutive year, Benin is expected to reach solid economic growth in 2015 at about 5 percent, despite recent headwinds from the economic slowdown in Nigeria—Benin’s major trading partner. In 2016, increased public investment is expected to keep real GDP growth at about 5.2 percent, with inflation to remain subdued. The medium-term outlook is also positive overall, but subject to significant risks, including a further slowdown in Nigeria and delays of structural reforms that could weaken growth dynamics. Low debt levels help accommodate the government’s ambitious plans to further scale-up investment over the medium term.
Notes: Also Available in French
January 6, 2016
Senegal: First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Senegal’s First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. Program performance through September was broadly satisfactory. All end-June assessment criteria were met but the end-June indicative target on tax revenue was missed because of a shortfall in customs revenue. Continued rationalization and better control of public expenditure helped meet the fiscal deficit target despite the shortfall in revenue. All structural benchmarks were met. In line with the IMF’s new debt limits policy, the authorities request the removal of the nonconcessional external debt assessment criteria. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the first PSI review.
Notes: Also available in French
2015
December 23, 2015
Solomon Islands: Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility; Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Solomon Islands’ Request for an Extension of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). All end-December 2014 performance criteria (PCs), indicative targets (ITs) for March 2015, and end-June 2015 PCs have been met by a considerable margin, with the exception of the ITs on government-funded recurrent spending on health and education, which have been consistently missed since 2014 albeit by a small margin. September 2015 available data indicate that ITs on international reserves, net domestic assets at the Central Bank, and net credit to the government have been comfortably met. The authorities remain committed to macroeconomic stability and completion of the reviews.
December 23, 2015
Kingdom of Swaziland: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Swaziland
Description: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Swaziland’s growth has been recovering since the 2010–11 fiscal crisis, albeit at a slower pace recently. Growth recovery following the fiscal crisis was broadly supported by the manufacturing and service sectors. In 2015, however, growth is expected to slow, owing to adverse weather conditions and a slowdown in tourism and transport sectors. Swaziland’s growth outlook is projected to remain subdued over the medium term, while it is clouded with downside risks. Growth is expected to slow in 2016/17, followed by a modest recovery in the following years.