Country Reports
2016
February 24, 2016
Uruguay: Selected Issues
Description: This paper examines the dimensions in which Uruguay’s financial development is lagging, and the benefits that might accrue if obstacles to development in these areas were removed. The analysis focuses on the frictions affecting firms’ access to credit, corporate credit deepening, and the efficiency of financial intermediation in Uruguay, and quantifies the potential economic benefits of relaxing these constraints, with implications for firms and households alike. The paper also lays out the basic premises of the model, together with some facts to illustrate different elements of it. The paper presents the results of the calibration and comparative statics exercise. The last section concludes with a discussion of measures that have been taken by the Uruguayan authorities recently, which may alleviate some of the constraints emphasized in the model. The challenge is to implement these measures in a way that maximizes their effectiveness. This may require communication campaigns targeting the youth, elderly and low-income segments of the population, to ensure the widest reach, particularly outside Montevideo.
February 24, 2016
Uruguay: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay
Description: Uruguay has achieved more than a decade of high and inclusive economic growth, supported by social stability and reduced regional linkages. The country has weathered the recent global and regional headwinds relatively well so far. Yet the economy is slowing down, while inflation remains above target, and deposit dollarization has risen. While the baseline projection foresees a temporary and moderate slowdown, the country is exposed to further shocks, especially from the immediate region.
February 24, 2016
United Kingdom: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for United Kingdom
Description: Considerable progress has been achieved in the post-crisis repair of the UK economy. Private-sector indebtedness has been reduced, the financial sector regulatory framework has been overhauled, the fiscal deficit has been cut in half, and the employment rate has reached a record high. With the output gap now nearly closed, growth is expected to average near its potential rate of around 2¼ percent over the medium term, with inflation rising slowly from its current low levels to the 2 percent target by end-2017. However, this benign baseline is subject to risks, including those related to potential shocks to global growth and asset prices, still-high levels of household debt, the elevated current account deficit, and the degree to which productivity growth will recover. Uncertainty associated with the outcome of the forthcoming referendum on EU membership could also weigh on the outlook. Continued efforts are needed to complete the post-crisis repair, promote growth, and further bolster resilience.
February 23, 2016
Finland: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-The Value-Added Tax Gap
Description: This report presents estimates of the tax gap for Finland for the period 2008–14. There are two main components to the RA-GAP methodology for estimating the VAT gap: 1) estimate the potential VAT collections for a given period; and 2) determine the accrued VAT collections for that period. The difference between the two values is the VAT gap. The methodology employs a top-down approach for estimating the potential VAT base, using statistical data on value-added generated in each sector and constructs the accrued VAT collections value from tax record data. One of the main purposes of this report is to estimate the compliance gap. The compliance gap is the difference between the potential VAT that could have been collected given the current policy framework and actual accrued VAT collections. Other tax gap measures can be determined using different methods for determining potential VAT, and these other measures are important in understanding all the factors which are affecting current collections. This report will provide estimates for these other gap measures as well, and compare and contrast them with the compliance gap.
February 23, 2016
Denmark: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-The Value-Added Tax Gap
Description: This report presents estimates of the tax gap for Denmark for the period 2008–12. There are two main components to the RA-GAP methodology for estimating the VAT gap: 1) estimate the potential VAT collections for a given period; and 2) determine the accrued VAT collections for that period. The difference between the two values is the VAT gap. The methodology employs a top-down approach for estimating the potential VAT base, using statistical data on value-added generated in each sector and constructs the accrued VAT collections value from tax record data. One of the main purposes of this report is to estimate the compliance gap. The compliance gap is the difference between the potential VAT that could have been collected given the current policy framework and actual accrued VAT collections. Other tax gap measures can be determined using different methods for determining potential VAT, and these other measures are important in understanding all the factors which are affecting current collections. This report will provide estimates for these other gap measures as well, and compare and contrast them with the compliance gap.
February 22, 2016
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
Description: Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
Notes: Also available in Russian
February 22, 2016
Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-The 2013 Property Tax Act: Evaluation of its Design and the Employed Mass Valuation System
Description: This report provides to the Ministry of Finance a review of the current mass valuation appraisal system, and further policy directions on improved tax design for a property tax that would not invite Constitutional challenge, especially in respect of tax base definition, tax rate policy, and tax relief. These measures combined would broaden the base with less rate discrimination. The mission identified the following key structural problems as to the design of the real property tax and suggested corrective steps with the view to improving collections from property taxes across Slovenia
February 22, 2016
Republic of Fiji: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Fiji
Description: Fiji is enjoying a strong growth momentum due to accommodative policies, robust tourism and strong remittances, and an improvement in the terms of trade. The smooth and peaceful elections in September 2014 marked the return to democracy—leading to a normalization in relations with development partners, further boosting investor and consumer confidence. While addressing infrastructure gaps and further improving the business climate will be critical to ensure strong, sustainable and more inclusive growth, this must be balanced against the need to consolidate fiscal policy. Risks are tilted to the downside, related to external developments and prolonged accommodative policy settings.
February 22, 2016
Kyrgyz Republic: 2015 Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kyrgyz Republic
Description: The economy has shown some resilience in the face of adverse regional shocks but potential growth is constrained by persistent structural challenges, particularly lagging productivity and dependence on gold, remittances, and foreign aid. Satisfactory performance under the program during the first half of the year was followed by fiscal slippages in the run-up to the October elections and a delay in adopting the Banking Code, a key measure to strengthen central bank independence and the bank resolution framework. The combined impact of a large public investment program and currency depreciation has raised the public debt ratio markedly. Significant further depreciation could pose risks for the otherwise well capitalized, but highly dollarized, financial sector. The business environment remains weak, overshadowed by lingering disagreements between the authorities and the largest foreign investor.
Notes: Also available in Russian
February 18, 2016
St. Lucia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: A moderate economic recovery is taking hold in St. Lucia. Favorable international conditions have contributed to improved demand for tourism, St. Lucia’s main economic sector, and the external current account deficit has narrowed significantly. The authorities have made some progress in addressing a weak fiscal position. However, the financial sector continues to be impaired by nonperforming loans, public debt keeps rising, and unemployment remains very high, while external sector competitiveness continues to be weakened by an overvalued exchange rate, economies of scale disadvantages, and structural bottlenecks.