Country Reports
2016
March 15, 2016
Indonesia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
Description: This paper discusses key issues related to the Indonesian economy. Indonesia has weathered challenging economic conditions well. The economy has safely navigated the commodity price shocks, tightening financial conditions, and repeated bouts of turbulence in global financial markets, assisted by broadly appropriate macroeconomic policies. The Indonesian economy, however, is still facing headwinds. Against this backdrop, the 2015 Article IV consultation is focused on the need to manage short-term vulnerabilities and to boost potential growth in the medium-term. The challenge for Indonesia will be to follow through on the reforms that the government has already launched and undertake further macrocritical reforms to boost productivity and diversify growth, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability.
March 8, 2016
Montenegro: Selected Issues
Description: This paper focuses on Montenegro’s export sector performance and challenges. Montenegro has run a persistent trade deficit since its independence. Montenegro’s goods exports have decreased, while goods imports have been more or less stable. A comparison reveals a relatively weak recovery of goods exports for Montenegro. Montenegro’s goods exports to the euro area have declined over time despite euroization. Foreign demand explains services exports well, but less so goods exports. Business climate surveys indicate high nonprice barriers in Montenegro’s export sector. The share of high-value-added export goods has been diminishing over time. Services exports also signal narrow productivity gains. Weak productivity growth may hinder the export sector.
March 8, 2016
Montenegro: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
Description: This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
March 7, 2016
Belgium: 2016 Article IV Consultation--Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses economic development and policies of Belgium. The new government has taken important steps to support job creation and address the cost of aging—notably through wage moderation, pension reform, and a tax shift. But growth prospects remain mediocre, public debt very high, and the labor market severely fragmented. The central task is to achieve a lasting reduction in public debt while nurturing the recovery and social cohesion. The government’s goal of achieving structural fiscal balance by 2018 is laudable but ambitious—with almost two percent of GDP of measures yet to be identified. Tapping Belgium’s full labor market potential requires a comprehensive and inclusive jobs strategy.
March 7, 2016
Belgium: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses two key issues of the Belgian economy: (1) making public expenditure more efficient and (2) addressing the Belgian labor market-segmentations and distortions. Belgium faces fiscal challenges that call for a substantial consolidation over the medium term. The sizable expenditure reduction contemplated by the authorities will be difficult without deeper structural reforms. Reforms that improve the efficiency of public spending can help underpin fiscal adjustment while minimizing the drag on growth and protect social cohesion. The Belgian labor market suffers from rigidities and fragmentation. The design of policies to increase employment rates among these vulnerable labor market segments requires a thorough reflection of symptoms and underlying causes.
March 2, 2016
India: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
Description: This paper discusses outlook and risk related to the economic development of India. The Indian economy is on a recovery path, supported by a large terms of trade gain (about 2½ percent of GDP) and reduced external vulnerabilities, though downside risks remain. Important economic and structural reforms have been initiated, but further reforms are needed to boost India’s growth potential. Notwithstanding the cyclical pickup, medium-term growth continues to be constrained by supply-side bottlenecks and weaknesses in the corporate and banking sectors. Past fund advice and the authorities’ macroeconomic policies have been broadly aligned, but progress on structural reforms has been partial.
March 2, 2016
India: Selected Issues
Description: This paper explores key issues affecting the Indian economy and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector, and other structural policies. This paper evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in the infrastructure sector; the nature, scope, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in India; the potential costs and benefits of gold monetization schemes in India; two recent episodes of financial market volatility—the taper tantrum of the summer of 2013 and the China spillover episode of the summer of 2015; effectiveness of India’s capital controls using an arbitrage based approach; the relationship between Indian; and international market prices of cereals.
February 29, 2016
Argentina: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial Sector Stability-Technical Note
Description: This paper provides technical analysis and detailed information underpinning the Financial Sector Assessment Program in Argentina. The implementation of stress tests is conceptually challenging in the Argentinean context, and the results must be interpreted with a high degree of caution. The stress tests examined the resilience of the Argentine banking system to solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. These tests suggest that most banks are in a position to withstand substantial levels of stress while still phasing in capital requirements under Basel II, and credit risk is the most important vulnerability. Banks appeared resilient to market risk but less so to sovereign risks.
February 29, 2016
Republic of Moldova: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Bank Crisis Resolution-Stress Testing
Description: This note discusses the stress tests that were carried out on Moldova’s banking system as part of the 2014 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update. The objective of this exercise was to assess the resilience of the banking system to major sources of risk. The stress tests were conducted in collaboration with the National Bank of Moldova (NBM), and complement other approaches, such as the analysis of financial indicators and the assessment of the quality of supervision. The stress tests focused on the banking system and covered all 14 banks operating in the country. Top-down solvency stress tests were conducted jointly by the FSAP team and staff from NBM, using supervisory data. These stress tests were complemented by bottom-up stress tests, conducted by individual banks using their own internal models, but applied to the macroeconomic scenarios provided by the FSAP team. In addition, liquidity stress tests, together with complementary sensitivity analysis were also carried out on all banks in the system.
February 29, 2016
Republic of Moldova: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Bank Crisis Resolution-Technical Note
Description: An important aspect of the FSAP mission was the review of the bank crisis resolution framework in Moldova. There are several characteristics of vulnerabilities in the banking system which suggests the need for the authorities to give a high priority to crisis resolution preparedness. Notable in this context is the concentrated nature of the banking system, being dominated by six domestic banks (four of which are relatively large): the six banks, which de facto appear to form two groups of banks (involving five of the six largest domestic banks) having combined market share of 60–70 percent of banking system assets. In the case of two of these banks there is a significant large exposure risk, with aggregate large exposures being well in excess of the banks’ capital. These banks also have relatively large exposure risk to foreign banks. Moreover, stress testing undertaken for the FSAP suggests a potential vulnerability to credit risks, particularly as regards foreign currency denominated loans.