Country Reports
2016
May 11, 2016
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
Description: This paper discusses the impact of the global economic slump on the Mauritanian economy, which faces a significant negative terms-of-trade shock that is more persistent than initially envisaged. The impact of the international shock is compounded by a narrow production base, structural weaknesses, and limited policy space related to elevated public debt and pressures on external buffers. The outlook sees a recovery in economic activity to 4.1 percent in 2016, but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The present economic uncertainty has prompted Mauritania to call for an ambitious policy adjustment to diversify the economy and promote inclusive growth for a determined reform agenda.
Notes: Also available in French
May 11, 2016
Paraguay: Selected Issues
Description: This paper focuses on the reform options for Paraguay’s fiscal responsibilities law as well as credit growth and banking system vulnerabilities. During the first year of Paraguay’s fiscal responsibility law, implementation has proven challenging, and a debate has emerged over whether its current design is excessively rigid. There are also important reputational costs to amending the framework. Paraguay has experienced rapid credit growth over the past decade. Reflecting these considerations, this chapter analyzes banks’ health and potential risks in Paraguay. Paraguay’s credit markets, as well as the rest of its financial system, are dominated by commercial banks.
Notes: Also Available in Spanish
May 11, 2016
Paraguay: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses the recent economic developments of Paraguay. Against the backdrop of a regional slowdown, Paraguay’s economy remains relatively resilient. The economy experienced some loss of momentum over the past year due to unfavorable external shocks. Inflation pressures remain contained despite significant depreciation of the guaraní against the U.S. dollar. Macroeconomic policies remain accommodative in light of subdued inflation and slower growth. Recently, credit growth has moderated, but credit quality has deteriorated. To further strengthen fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policy frameworks, Paraguay outlines structural reform agenda and measures. The national development plan places emphasis on inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
Notes: Also Available in Spanish
May 11, 2016
Romania: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses the following important issues related to the Romanian economy: inflation and inflation expectations, the need to bolster expenditure efficiency, minimum wage policy, and financial sector development. Headline inflation has decreased markedly in Romania in recent years. Key factors in this trend were oil and food price developments and, in particular, the recent reduction in the VAT rate. Romania has undertaken a strong fiscal consolidation since 2010, which reduced expenditure to among the lowest in the region. Minimum wages in Romania have risen sharply, which could directly affect wage distribution and improve income inequality.
May 11, 2016
Romania: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks related to the Romanian economy. Romania made important progress in addressing economic imbalances and restoring growth after the global financial crisis. Prudent policies, partly in the context of successive IMF-supported programs, reduced vulnerabilities, and the fiscal and current account deficits improved markedly. However, economic policies have weakened recently and hard-won gains are at risk of being reversed. Governance problems have received more attention recently, and Romania has made progress compared to its peers in the fight against corruption. Staff’s baseline projection is for growth to remain above potential in 2016–17.
May 10, 2016
Republic of San Marino: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of San Marino
Description: This paper assesses key issues related to the economy of the Republic of San Marino. It remains in transition following the implosion of its offshore banking model in the aftermath of the global crisis, resulting in the loss of a third of output. The impact of the global financial crisis, which led to a massive outflow of nonresident deposits and a sharp downsizing of its large financial sector, caused an extraordinary loss of a third of San Marino’s output—the largest in Europe. A number of important steps need to be taken for sustainable growth strengthening the banking system, realigning fiscal policy, and improving flexibility to enable the diversification.
May 10, 2016
Republic of San Marino: Selected Issues
Description: This paper offers elements of a possible strategy to deal with San Marino’s nonperforming loans (NPLs). It provides a brief overview of the reasons behind the accumulation of impaired assets by Sammarinese banks. This paper also presents some stylized facts regarding the nature and composition of San Marino’s problem loans. Further, it summarizes the experience of other small economies in dealing with weak banks and NPLs, with a view to drawing policy lessons. This paper also discusses recent measures implemented by the Sammarinese authorities to address weak financial institutions and their problem assets and examines the main impediments to deal with NPLs in San Marino’s legal and tax framework.
May 4, 2016
Zimbabwe: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation and the Third Review of the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe
Description: This paper discusses recent developments, outlook, and risks related to the economy of Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s economic difficulties have deepened. GDP growth slowed significantly to 1.1 percent in 2015, mainly because of the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural output, and power generation. The current account balance improved in 2015, because of lower prices for oil imports, subdued economic activity, and fiscal consolidation efforts. Fiscal performance in 2015 was better than programmed, despite the adverse macroeconomic environment. Despite spending pressures to mitigate the impact of the drought, the authorities remain committed to fiscal discipline; they target a primary cash deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.
May 4, 2016
Malaysia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia
Description: This paper discusses the extent to which the Malaysian economy has been hit by a number of external and domestic shocks since late 2014, including sharply lower energy prices, spillovers from China, capital outflows, and domestic political controversies. The 2016 budget, including January recalibration, reaffirms the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate in an environment of moderating growth and low inflation. Facing sizeable capital outflows and a sharp fall in oil and commodity prices, exchange rate depreciated substantially. The central bank deployed reserves; the effect on domestic interest rates was modest. Credit growth has moderated, a welcome development after several years of double-digit growth.
May 1, 2016
Republic of Mozambique: Technical Assistance Report on Requirements for Improving Budgetary Execution Controls
Description: The report contributes to the Mozambican authorities on strengthening budgetary execution controls.