Country Reports
2016
May 18, 2016
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses the main characteristics and causes of Lithuania’s inequality differentials relative to peers, and suggests policies that may reduce them. Although Lithuania has recovered well from the 2008–09 crisis and developmental indicators look reasonably good, it features one of the highest levels of income inequality in the European Union. Low living standards, modest public expenditure on social protection, limited tax progressivity, and high income volatility are the main causes of income inequality. More recently, Lithuania has taken some moderate steps to address income inequality and to improve the condition of low-wage earners through large minimum wage hikes.
May 18, 2016
Algeria: Selected Issues
Description: This paper develops a structural macroeconomic model for Algeria that can help inform the discussion of the policy choices faced by the authorities. The model captures the core dynamics of Algeria’s macro-economy and provides an organizing framework for forecasting and policy analysis that can facilitate an assessment of the optimal policy responses to oil shocks and the implications for macroeconomic stability. This paper also examines Algeria’s main subsidies and proposes reform strategies, drawing on cross-country experiences, and discusses the channels through which a prolonged period of low oil prices may affect the banking sector, together with the policies needed to mitigate emerging financial stability risks.
May 18, 2016
Algeria: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses the recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policies required to foster sustainable economic growth of Algeria. Growth was sustained in 2015 while inflation picked up. The budget deficit reached a record high in 2015 because of the collapse in hydrocarbon revenues and a significant fiscal expansion. Beyond 2016, the outlook hinges on the strength of the policy response to the oil price shock. The collapse in oil prices points to the urgent need to reshape Algeria’s growth model. Algeria needs to undertake ambitious and sustained consolidation combined with a critical mass of structural reforms to diversify its economy and promote private sector-led growth and job creation.
Notes: Also Available in French
May 17, 2016
Kosovo: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing Social Protection Cash Benefits
Description: This paper assesses the sustainability of the public pension system, discusses recent and proposed changes to veterans’ benefits, and reviews the effectiveness of social assistance in Kosovo. The social transfer programs created in the wake of Kosovo’s independence are narrower in scope than similar programs in other European emerging economies. Poverty, the main policy challenge of the country, can be addressed through employment-friendly economic growth and pro-poor social spending. Kosovo’s highly inequitable current system of social cash transfer represents a departure from the fiscally sustainable and conceptually homogenous structure of the early 2000s.
May 17, 2016
Malawi: Request for an Extension of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses the Malawi authorities, request for a short extension (June 30, 2016) to their arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) that is currently due to expire on May 22, 2016. The extension is needed to provide time for the authorities to implement two prior actions for completing the seventh and eighth reviews. These comprise the reconciliation of government bank accounts for the first half of FY2015/16 and another on preparing a report on the flow and stock of domestic arrears at end-2015.
May 16, 2016
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
Description: This paper focuses on the following key issues of the Slovenian economy: export competitiveness, corporate financial health and investment, European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing, and financial sector development issues and prospects. Slovenia’s exports have been the main contributor to GDP growth in recent years. In particular, by 2015 exports of goods and services had increased by 20 percentage points of GDP compared to their postcrisis low in 2009. Preceding the global economic slump in 2008, bank credit in Slovenia fueled corporate investment. The past few years have witnessed substantial monetary easing by the ECB. With inflation running well below target, the ECB has been pursuing unconventional monetary policy-easing actions.
May 16, 2016
Republic of Slovenia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report for the Republic of Slovenia
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in Slovenia. Although strong demand in trading partners and large European Union structural fund transfers buoyed growth in 2014–15, the outlook is less reassuring. The short-term outlook is broadly balanced, while medium-term prospects are subject to downside risks. Significant structural reforms are needed to realize Slovenia’s growth potential, but political tensions and coalition discussions may affect their pace and ambition. Slovenia needs to avoid complacency; with more ambitious reforms, growth can be faster and more sustainable. Concrete measures need to be taken to address binding constraints on growth and reduce financial and fiscal vulnerabilities.
May 16, 2016
Luxembourg: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Luxembourg
Description: This paper discusses growth prospects and downside risks of Luxembourg’s economy. Luxembourg’s small open economy plays a pivotal role in intermediating global capital flows. Deep-rooted traditions of fiscal prudence, business-friendly regulation, a skilled labor force, and low and predictable taxes have made Luxembourg a global financial center, home of multinational companies, and one of the richest countries in the European Union (EU). However, financial market stress could affect Luxembourg’s performance. In case of severe external shocks, unraveling financial exposures could prompt dislocations in markets or institutions beyond the scope of the national authorities. The European Banking Union and EU financial regulations frameworks are particularly positive for Luxembourg.
May 16, 2016
Luxembourg: Selected Issues
Description: This paper studies the two vital issues of Luxembourg’s economy: investment IMF-World Bank linkages and lessons and challenges in accommodating migrants and refugees. The Luxembourg investment fund industry, second in the world after the United States, has grown rapidly since the global financial crisis. Risks in investment funds are attracting global attention, and the linkages between Luxembourg funds and banks could contribute to transmitting financial volatility to the financial system and the real economy. Past experience of handling migration flows and a positive public attitude have helped the authorities to mobilize resources for accommodating sharply rising refugee inflows from mid-2015.
May 13, 2016
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses economic developments, outlooks, and risks in Afghanistan. The economy is in difficultly. Deepening uncertainty about the political transition following the 2014 presidential election, corruption and weak governance, and a weakening security environment have complicated the implementation of reforms, undermined confidence and economic activity, and contributed to increased emigration. The overall budget had a deficit in 2015 as a shortfall in grants more than offset higher-than-projected revenue and lower spending. The trade deficit remained large, but substantial inflows of foreign aid kept the current account in surplus. The financial sector remains fragile and plays a limited intermediation role.