Country Reports
2016
May 31, 2016
Maldives: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of Maldives’ economy. Maldives living standards have risen to middle-income levels over the past two decades driven by tourism development. The country’s geography creates fiscal challenges, and the economy has faced persistent fiscal deficits over the past decade. The economy is highly exposed to climate change, a fact that further adds to fiscal costs. The real economy outperformed its peers in the past few years, but tourism slowed last year. Public debt is high and on a rising trajectory. A detailed national development strategy would ensure that investment plans are well coordinated and bring about bigger growth dividends.
May 27, 2016
Somalia: Staff -Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Somalia. Since 2012, Somalia has been recovering slowly from nearly 25 years of civil war. Weak institutional capacity, complex clan politics, and a challenging security situation have complicated economic reconstruction. As a result, social and economic conditions remain dire. To help Somalia’s economic reconstruction efforts and establish a policy implementation track record as an important step toward an eventual fund arrangement, the authorities have requested an IMF staff-monitored program. It focuses on strengthening macroeconomic policy management and reforms to strengthen economic governance and institutional capacity and keep up the pace of restoring key economic and financial institutions.
May 27, 2016
Mexico: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement-Press release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in the economy of Mexico. The economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. Growth reached 2½ percent in 2015 and is projected to remain at a similar level in 2016. Global financial volatility has increased sharply over the last year, with significant spillovers to Mexico’s financial markets. The flexible credit line (FCL) has served the Mexican economy well. The previous FCL arrangements provided valuable insurance in the immediate aftermath of the 2008–09 global financial crisis and during the euro area crisis and the recent turbulent period in the run-up to the start of U.S. monetary policy normalization.
May 25, 2016
Colombia: Selected Issues
Description: This paper presents an assessment of the monetary policy stance and broad financial conditions in Colombia, which provides insights about macro-financial linkages. It also discusses how nonfinancial corporate debt and leverage have increased in recent years, supported by easy access to capital markets, abundant global liquidity, and low interest rates. While some sectors look somewhat more strained than others (oil, gas, and airlines), debt servicing capacity has also improved with recent economic growth. This paper explores three possible drivers of inflation dynamics in Colombia: exchange rate pass-through, the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, and wages. The Colombian peso depreciated in line with the decline in oil prices, pushing up tradable-goods inflation.
May 24, 2016
Grenada: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waiver of Non-Observance of a Performance Criterion, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper features Grenada’s request for waiver of non-observance of a performance criterion, request for modification of a performance criterion, and financing assurances review. The arrangement was approved on June 26, 2014, and the third review was completed on November 25, 2015. Grenada’s comprehensive public debt restructuring is nearing completion. The debt exchange with Grenada’s largest private creditor group was implemented, and an agreement reached with Paris Club creditors. Discussions focused on completing the programmed fiscal consolidation, finalizing reforms to Grenada’s fiscal policy framework, and improving competitiveness and growth prospects. Staff proposes to refine the structural benchmark on public sector modernization to focus specifically on public wage bill management.
May 23, 2016
Costa Rica: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
Description: This paper looks at the following important issues pertaining to the economy of Costa Rica: micro-financial linkages, financial sector vulnerabilities, monetary policy stance, financial deepening in Costa Rica, financial inclusion in Costa Rica, recent fiscal developments and medium-term sustainability, and female labor force participation in Costa Rica. This paper discusses linkages between the Costa Rican real economy and financial sector. Although increasingly diversified, the Costa Rican financial system is centered on banking intermediation. The banking system is highly segmented and heavily dollarized. To assess the adequacy of the current monetary policy stance, this paper estimates the neutral monetary policy interest rate.
May 23, 2016
Costa Rica: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Costa Rica
Description: This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Costa Rica. It bounced back quickly from the global financial crisis; growth has moderated below trend and macro vulnerabilities, mainly from the weak fiscal position, are rising. Policy actions have been broadly consistent with past IMF advice. A third year of growth below potential has resulted in a moderate output gap. The central bank took advantage of the favorable shock from lower oil prices to reduce its inflation target range. The exchange rate has been stable despite abandonment of band regime, and reserve accumulation has resumed strongly. The external position is close to equilibrium, with competitiveness largely unchanged in 2014–15.
May 23, 2016
Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis-Updated Estimates and Further Considerations
Description: This paper provides preliminary debt sustainability analysis (DSA) of Greece. Debt was deemed sustainable, but not with high probability, when the first program was adopted in May 2010. The much deeper-than-expected recession necessitated significant debt relief in 2011–12 to maintain the prospect of restoring sustainability. Serious implementation problems caused a sharp deterioration in sustainability, raising fresh doubts about the realism of policy assumptions, especially from mid–2014. Developments since last summer suggest that a realignment of critical policy, and DSA assumptions can no longer be deferred if the DSA is to remain credible. Staff believes that revised program targets remain sufficiently ambitious to warrant continued support from Greece’s European partners.
May 20, 2016
Colombia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
Description: This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.
May 18, 2016
Republic of Lithuania: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Lithuania
Description: This paper discusses key issues pertaining to the economy of Lithuania. Good policies and favorable business conditions have helped put Lithuania back on the convergence path with western European living standards. Last year, growth took a temporary hit from difficult external environment. External factors caused the price level to fall in 2015, but deflation is unlikely to take root. The external current account moved into moderate deficit in 2015 due to weak export markets and strong domestic demand. Lithuania needs to focus on raising productivity growth through structural reforms, securing continued competitiveness as labor market tightens, and reducing income inequality through fiscal measures while maintaining a prudent policy stance.