Country Reports

June 10, 2016

Côte d’Ivoire: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Côte d’Ivoire

Description: This paper describes the recent economic developments and economic outlook and risks of the Côte d’Ivoire’s economy. Over the past four years, Côte d’Ivoire’s economic performance has been impressive, in sharp contrast with the preceding 10 years marked by conflicts and economic stagnation. Growth has been accompanied by a modest decline in poverty, but other human development indicators have been slow to improve. Financial sector vulnerabilities could trigger a shock to the economy or reinforce the impact on the real sector of nonfinancial shocks, potentially generating self-reinforcing adverse spillover effects on the economy in the absence of countervailing policy action.

Notes: Also Available in French

June 10, 2016

Côte d’Ivoire: Selected Issues

Description: This paper examines Côte d’Ivoire’s growth experience and argues that the development of a manufacturing export sector, lower income inequality, and prudent fiscal policy would strengthen the sustainability of growth. This paper aims to draw lessons for Côte d’Ivoire based on experience of other comparable countries that are now emerging market economies. The financial sector could trigger a shock to the economy or reinforce impact on the real sector of nonfinancial shocks. The current economic conditions in Côte d’Ivoire offer a favorable opportunity to resolve the financial status of public entities facing difficulties and for banks to raise their capital buffers to absorb a possible rise of nonperforming loans in event of a growth shock.

Notes: Also Available in French

June 9, 2016

Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for a One-Year Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda

Description: This paper review Uganda’s economic performance under the program supported by the Policy Support Instrument. Despite sluggish growth in credit to the private sector, GDP growth has been supported by the implementation of large public investments. Inflation has started to decelerate toward the medium-term target, allowing for monetary policy easing. Adverse weather developments, regional and global-political and economic uncertainties, and post-election fiscal pressures may challenge the achievement of short-term growth and inflation objectives. However, provided progress on structural reforms is accelerated, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by future oil production, increased regional integration and inter-regional trade, and implementation of significant infrastructure projects.

June 9, 2016

Albania: Selected Issues

Description: This paper aims to determine how much of the economic slowdown of Albania is owing to cyclical conditions and how much to a reduction in potential growth. The analysis shows that average growth in 2009–14 dropped by 3.2 percentage points relative to 1997–2008, of which 2.8 percentage points are due to lower potential growth. Albania has significant potential to improve its export competitiveness. However, Albania’s competitiveness has shown narrow improvements over the past five years, with weak productivity growth and continued concentration in low-skilled labor-intensive sectors with limited value added. This paper also explores the factors underpinning Albania’s relatively low level of general government revenues.

June 9, 2016

Albania: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania

Description: This paper presents an overview of recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of the Albanian economy. Over the past few years, Albania has successfully maintained macroeconomic stability amid a turbulent external environment. A sizable fiscal consolidation is underway, and public debt is projected to start decreasing in 2016. However, growth remains sluggish due to a weak euro area recovery and risk-averse banks. The policy mix focuses on fiscal adjustment, while supporting growth through gradual monetary easing. The key policy priorities are to lower fiscal vulnerabilities through continued consolidation, revive private sector credit by cleaning up bank balance sheets, and continue implementing growth-friendly structural reforms.

June 8, 2016

Senegal: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of an Assessment Criterion-Press Release; and Staff Report

Description: This paper discusses key issues related to Senegal’s economy. Government proposals for constitutional reforms were approved by 63 percent of the vote in a referendum held on March 20, 2016. Growth was robust at 6.5 percent in 2015 and is projected to continue at a similar level this year. Although the economic outlook remains favorable, downside risks remain. Economic policies and structural reforms are needed to sustain growth and continued fiscal consolidation to meet regional convergence criteria. To keep growth buoyant, steadfast action is needed in following three areas: (1) improving business environment to open economic room for small- and medium-sized enterprises and foreign direct investment; (2) strengthening public financial management and governance; and (3) rebuilding government's fiscal space.

Notes: Also Available in French

June 7, 2016

Thailand: Selected Issues

Description: This paper discusses selected issues related to the economy of Thailand. The economy of Thailand is largely dependent on China. A 1 percent decline in China’s GDP lowers Thailand’s output by about 0.2 percent. Population aging is another major issue in Thailand. This Association of Southeast Asian Nations country will face the dual challenge of increasing the coverage of the social security system and ensuring its long-term sustainability. Thailand’s financial sector has expanded rapidly over the last decade, and important changes in its structure have taken place. While corporate debt has remained broadly stable, household debt has increased to one of the highest levels among emerging markets, raising concerns about household debt overhang.

June 7, 2016

Thailand: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand

Description: This paper discusses recent developments, outlook and risk, and policies required for a long-lasting recovery of Thailand’s economy. Thailand remains resilient in the face of external and internal challenges. However, political uncertainty and structural bottlenecks cloud long-term prospects. The economy recovered in 2015 after a slowdown induced by political uncertainty. Public investment supported economic activity, particularly through community-based infrastructure projects. Monetary policy was eased in the face of below-target inflation. The credit cycle moderated, but household debt reached a historic high. Implementing high-quality fiscal stimulus, easing monetary policy, and safeguarding financial sector stability can strengthen long-term sustainability, equity, and efficiency of Thailand’s economy.

June 7, 2016

Suriname: Request for Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname

Description: This paper mainly discusses the IMF-supported program aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and confidence in Suriname’s economy. The proposed 24-month Stand-By Arrangement (265 percent of quota, or SDR 342 million) aims to support Suriname’s adjustment to the fall in commodity export prices and restore external and fiscal sustainability. It foresees an improvement of the fiscal balance by 7.4 percent of GDP, which would reverse the rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio; restore foreign reserves to adequate levels—four months of imports; and reflect a monetary policy stance calibrated to reduce inflation to single digits. It also strengthens the foundations for private-sector growth.

June 2, 2016

Tunisia: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia

Description: This paper presents an overview of the macroeconomic condition of Tunisia. Tunisia has managed to preserve macroeconomic stability and initiate fiscal and banking reforms in a context marked by a prolonged political transition, spillovers from the crisis in Libya, and numerous exogenous shocks, including terror attacks. However, important vulnerabilities remain: economic activity is weak, employment is low, social tensions linger, spending composition has deteriorated, and external imbalances are high. To tackle these issues, Tunisia formulated a five-year (2016–20) economic vision in 2015, which is being developed into a detailed plan. The vision aims at promoting stronger and more inclusive growth in Tunisia.

Notes: Also Available in French