Country Reports

June 16, 2016

Rwanda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Extension, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Faciltity-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda

Description: This paper discusses the economic performance of Rwanda. Despite an unfolding external shock, growth in Rwanda remained strong in 2015. Real GDP grew by an estimated 6.9 percent in 2015, buoyed by strong construction and services activity, and leading indicators suggest continued robust growth in the first quarter of 2016. However, in the absence of policy adjustment already underway, growth would remain at its potential, but the balance-of-payment situation would be unsustainable. The authorities are requesting to extend the current Policy Support Instrument (PSI)-supported program. The authorities believe the PSI framework has served well in anchoring their medium- and long-term growth and reform agenda, and signaling policy intentions and performance to investors and development partners.

June 16, 2016

Republic of Latvia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia

Description: This paper focuses on the key issues related to the economy of Latvia. Growth picked up somewhat last year despite a weak external environment. GDP growth rose to 2.7 percent, up about ¼ percent over the previous year. However, growth is expected to slow slightly in 2016 to 2½ percent. While Latvia continues to make steady economic progress, a key challenge will be to generate the growth necessary to sustain the pace of income convergence with Western Europe. Structural reforms will be required to improve state-owned enterprise governance and strengthen the business environment, upgrade public infrastructure, and modernize legal systems.

June 16, 2016

Kingdom of Bahrain: Financial Sector Assessment Program, Detailed Assessment of Observance Assessment of Observance of the CPMI-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures

Description: This paper provides a detailed assessment of observance of the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures–International Organization of Securities Commissions principles for financial market infrastructures (FMIs). Major achievements have been made to establish safe and efficient payments and securities settlement systems in Bahrain. The real-time gross settlement system is highly concentrated and has tight interdependencies with the securities settlement system, making risks management a top priority. The formal assessment suggests that most of the principles are broadly observed, and identifies areas to improve for closer alignment with international standards. The objective of the assessment has been to identify potential risks related to FMIs that may affect financial stability.

June 16, 2016

Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues Paper

Description: The aim of this paper is to examine selected issues related to Latvia’s economic development. Latvia experienced a large macroeconomic adjustment in the aftermath of the crisis in 2007. The adjustment was characterized by internal devaluation via a combination of wage restraint and productivity gains. Latvia’s creditless recovery has taken unusually long to turn compared to international experience. Although lack of credit has not undermined recovery so far, support from the financial sector will be crucial for its continuation going forward. Emphasis on resuscitating credit growth is key to maintaining recovery. Focus should be on facilitating access to credit for small- and medium-sized enterprises and first-time borrowers, where market failures are the largest.

June 15, 2016

Cross-Country Report on Minimum Wages: Selected Issues

Description: This paper provides a cross-country report on minimum wages. In the past few years, many countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) have increasingly turned to minimum wage policies. Throughout the region, statutory minimum wages had been in place at least since the early 1990s, but they were typically set at relatively moderate levels and affected relatively few workers. Minimum wages have risen sharply relative to both average wages and labor productivity. Minimum wages often affect relatively more workers in CESEE than in Western Europe. Governments are the key players in the minimum wage determination in CESEE countries.

June 15, 2016

Colombia: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement- Press Release; and Staff Report

Description: This paper focuses on recent economic developments as well as the role of the flexible credit line (FCL) arrangement. Despite a large external shock, Colombia’s economy showed remarkable resilience in 2015. The current account deficit reached a record level in 2015, but reserves remained stable. The banking system and corporate sector remained in good financial health. Growth will be subdued in the near future but is projected to gradually return toward potential. The FCL has served Colombia well. The previous FCL arrangements have been instrumental to cope with heightened external risks in recent years, complementing the authorities’ policy response to economic shocks.

June 14, 2016

Sri Lanka: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement, and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

Description: This paper discusses economic performance, outlook, and risks of Sri Lankan economy. Macroeconomic performance in 2015 reflected a mix between positive underlying growth momentum, the negative impact of unbalanced domestic policies, and an increasingly difficult external environment. The government fiscal deficit expanded to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2015. The overall balance of payments deteriorated significantly in 2015 despite an improvement in the terms of trade. Sri Lanka’s short-term outlook is challenging, but medium-term prospects are favorable if current macro-financial imbalances can be addressed. The key risks to the outlook stem from (1) government inaction on key policies and (2) a significant deterioration in the external environment.

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June 14, 2016

Sri Lanka: Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and policies required to stabilize the economy of Sri Lanka. Recent economic developments reflect a more challenging external environment as well as a sharpening of macro-financial imbalances that began emerging late in 2014. Fiscal consolidation has stalled, and public debt is set to rise in 2015. Monetary policy has been on hold since the last rate cut in April 2015, and there appears little room for additional easing. Quick action is needed to reestablish credible policies and restore confidence. Strong fiscal and monetary policies need to be implemented for sustainable economic growth in Sri Lanka.

June 13, 2016

Canada: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Description: This paper describes recent economic developments, outlook, risks, and policy challenges of the Canadian economy. After almost two years, the effects of the oil price shock continue to reverberate through the Canadian economy. Growth has decelerated, but inflation expectations remain well anchored. With the slowdown in growth, the output gap has reopened. Persistently low energy prices pose an important risk to the economy. The banking system remains sound, but exposure to the oil and gas sector will require higher provisions against expected losses. The policy mix over the near-term should cushion the adverse effects of lower oil prices on the economy while safeguarding financial stability.

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June 13, 2016

Mali: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Extension, Augmentation of Access and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mali

Description: This paper provides a review of Mali’s economic performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and requests for extension, augmentation of access, and modification of performance criteria. The political situation has continued to stabilize, following the signing of the peace agreement in June 2015. On the macroeconomic side, the recovery continued in 2015, with strong GDP growth, low inflation, and strengthening of the fiscal position. Overall, program implementation in 2015 was strong. All performance criteria and indicative targets for the fifth review were observed, generally with significant margins. The authorities are requesting a one-year extension of the current ECF arrangement, to December 2017.

Notes: Also available in French