Country Reports
2016
June 28, 2016
Montenegro: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Banking Supervision and Regulation-Technical Note
Description: This paper discusses the current status of banking supervision and regulation in Montenegro in the context of select Basel Core Principles. It provides a brief overview of the financial system structure, bank system performance, and the framework for financial oversight. Laws, regulations, and supervision have improved significantly since the 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program to align more closely with Basel and EU requirements. The banking sector dominates the financial system and accounts for about 90 percent of financial system assets, equivalent to about 93 percent of GDP as of June 2015. There are currently 14 banks operating in Montenegro, up from 11 in 2013.
June 28, 2016
Montenegro: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial Crisis Preparedness and Management-Technical Note
Description: This paper provides assessment of the crisis preparedness and management framework of Montenegro. The banking sector dominates the financial system and accounts for about 90 percent of financial system assets, equivalent to about 93 percent of GDP as of June 2015. In 2010 the Financial Stability Council (FSC) was established to maintain financial system stability and avoid financial distress. FSC members are the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM) governor (chair), the minister of finance, the president of the Insurance Supervision Agency Council, and the Securities and Exchange Commission president. The CBM functions as the de facto resolution authority for banks.
June 28, 2016
Montenegro: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Banking Sector Stress Testing-Technical Note
Description: The main objective of this technical note is to assess bank’s balance sheet and profits, solvency stress test, and liquidity stress test. The financial system in Montenegro is dominated by the banking sector. By the end of 2014, 12 licensed banks operated in Montenegro, with total banking sector assets amounting to 3.1 billion euros or 88 percent of total financial system assets and 92 percent of GDP. The stress-testing exercise is aimed to test the banking system’s resilience to extreme but plausible shocks. The stress test is a tool to assess the vulnerabilities of the banking system that may expose it to risks.
June 28, 2016
Montenegro: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Framework for NonPerforming Loans Workout and Insolvency and Creditor Rights-Technical Note
Description: This paper examines the current state of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in Montenegro, assesses the regulatory and supervisory framework as well as the insolvency and creditor rights regime, and makes recommendations for strengthening the framework. The paper evaluates the legal, regulatory, and supervisory regimes in four key areas: (1) creditor rights and enforcement systems (for secured and unsecured credit); (2) debt recovery and informal enterprise workout practices; (3) formal insolvency system (liquidation and reorganization proceedings); and (4) effectiveness of the relevant institutional, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks in implementing laws, regulations, and supervisory requirements in this area. The local and regional boom-bust cycle has left a legacy of high NPLs in Montenegro.
June 27, 2016
Denmark: Selected Issues
Description: This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.
June 27, 2016
Denmark: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Denmark
Description: This paper discusses the economic performance of Denmark. Although Denmark has a longstanding track record of sound economic and social policies, economic performance has been relatively weak for an extended period. The economy continues to grow slowly. After recording 1.3 percent growth in 2014, the economy grew by 1.2 percent in 2015, driven mostly by private consumption on the back of rising employment and real incomes. However, relatively strong performance in the first half of the year was partly undone by flagging exports in the second half of the year. Denmark has consistently run current account surpluses in recent decades, mostly reflecting structurally high retirement savings in the context of its funded pension system.
June 24, 2016
Republic of Timor-Leste: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Timor-Leste
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, and risks in Timor-Leste. Growth has moderated while inflation has fallen sharply. Owing to a sharp fall in oil revenues and large development needs, Timor-Leste is facing difficult policy challenges. According to industry estimates, unless new oil reserves are developed, oil production is expected to decline further and cease by 2023. Prioritization of government expenditures to facilitate high-return infrastructure investments is key in tandem with structural reforms that catalyze nonoil private sector growth. The 2016 budget outlined a significant scaling up of the public investment in 2017–19, which will strain fiscal sustainability.
June 24, 2016
Malawi: Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers for NonObservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Augmentation of Access, Modification of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Disbursements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
Description: This paper provides a review of the economic performance of Malawi under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Malawi’s economy has been hit hard by weather-related shocks for a second consecutive year, further weakening growth and worsening food insecurity. Growth is estimated to have declined from 5.7 percent in 2014 to 3 percent in 2015 and is projected to drop further to 2.7 percent this year. Under the ECF program, the macroeconomic framework in the near term will be anchored on a policy mix incorporating a tight monetary stance and a level of domestic fiscal financing consistent with disinflation.
June 22, 2016
Iceland: Selected Issues
Description: This paper examines Iceland’s expenditure policy, especially five expenditure pressure points, as well as capital flows and monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies. The postcrisis fiscal adjustment demanded painful choices, with spending on healthcare, education, and investment suffering cuts in real terms. While expenditures in these areas have rebounded more recently, there is a room for further decompression. Using quarterly panel data for 18 advanced and emerging small open economies during 2002–15, it finds that monetary policy is focused on inflation developments, but also that domestic interest rates affect capital flows, raising concerns about a reinforcing loop between monetary policy and capital flows.
June 22, 2016
Iceland: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
Description: This paper provides an assessment of the economic conditions, outlook, and crises in Iceland. There is a mounting sense that capital controls hurt growth prospects, repressing local financial markets, scaring foreign investors, and impeding savings diversification, and that it is time for them to go. Recent settlements with the bank estates are a huge step forward, improving already favorable macroeconomic conditions. At 4 percent in 2015 and gaining pace, real GDP expansion is among the fastest growing in Europe, opening up a positive output gap. However, the biggest risk for Iceland is overheating. Large wage awards on top of already hot economic readings speak to Iceland’s boom-bust history.