Country Reports
2016
July 12, 2016
United States: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the United States is now in its seventh consecutive year of expansion. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9 percent, and household net worth is close to precrisis peaks. Nonetheless, the economy has gone through a temporary growth dip in the last two quarters. Lower oil prices led to a further contraction in energy sector investment, and a strong dollar and weak global demand have weighed on net exports. With activity indicators for the second quarter of 2016 rebounding, the economy is expected to grow at 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2016 and 2017, which is above potential.
July 12, 2016
France: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the causes and potential remedies for structural unemployment in France. Structural unemployment in France has long been elevated, and appears to have edged up further since the crisis. This reflects both demand and supply factors, including: high labor taxes, wage stickiness, a growing skill gap, hysteresis effects from the crisis years, a lengthy period of elevated economic uncertainty, inactivity traps created by the unemployment and welfare benefit systems, and demographic factors that have pushed up the labor force. The cyclical recovery is projected to bring down the unemployment rate only slowly. Reducing labor tax wedges can increase both output and employment.
July 12, 2016
France: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic recovery in France is solidifying. The economy is projected to expand by 1.5 percent in 2016, primarily driven by strong consumer spending. There are also signs of a cyclical recovery in investment, and the slump in residential construction appears to be bottoming out. By contrast, net exports are declining as demand from trading partners has slowed. Private sector job creation has remained lackluster, and the unemployment rate has hovered at about 10 percent. The government has continued to advance important reforms to help create the conditions for improved economic performance. As for budget policies, there are ongoing efforts to contain spending growth at all levels of government while easing taxes.
July 11, 2016
Italy: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Italian economy is recovering gradually from a deep and protracted recession. Buoyed by exceptionally accommodative monetary policy, favorable commodity prices, supportive fiscal policy, and improved confidence on the back of the authorities’ wide-ranging reform efforts, the economy grew by 0.8 percent in 2015 and continued to expand in the first quarter of 2016. Labor market conditions have been improving gradually, and nonperforming loans appear to be stabilizing at about 18 percent of total loans. Growth is projected to remain just under 1 percent in 2016 and at about 1 percent in 2017.
July 11, 2016
Italy: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the conditions under which Italian banks can earn sufficient profits to grow out of their asset quality problems, rebuild capital buffers, and finance the real economy. A bottom-up analysis of the 15 largest Italian banks suggests that restoring sustainable profitability depends heavily on the growth outlook. Many banks are expected to become more profitable as the economy recovers, but their capacity to lend depends on the size of their capital buffers. However, a number of smaller banks face substantial profitability pressures, highlighting the need to reduce the large stock of nonperforming loans and for further cost cutting and efficiency gains.
July 8, 2016
Euro Area Policies: 2016 Aticle IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Euro Area
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the recovery in euro area has strengthened recently. Lower oil prices, a broadly neutral fiscal stance, and accommodative monetary policy are supporting domestic demand. However, inflation and inflation expectations remain very low, below the European Central Bank’s medium-term price stability objective. Euro area GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 1.6 percent in 2016 to 1.4 percent in 2017, mainly owing to the negative impact of the U.K. referendum outcome. Growth five years ahead is expected to be about 1.5 percent, with headline inflation reaching only 1.7 percent.
July 8, 2016
Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the impact of workforce aging on productivity in the euro area. The euro area population has aged considerably over the past few decades, and the process is expected to accelerate in the years ahead. At the same time, labor productivity growth in the euro area has been sluggish, posing risks to long-term growth prospects. It is estimated that workforce aging could significantly retard total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the medium to long term. Given current demographic projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the aging of the workforce in the euro area could lower TFP growth by about 0.2 percentage points each year between 2014 and 2035. Appropriate policies can, however, mitigate the adverse effects of aging.
July 7, 2016
Czech Republic: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Czech Republic
Description: A favorable external environment, high utilization of EU funds, and supportive macroeconomic policies have boosted economic growth. The authorities’ medium-term fiscal objective is appropriate, but fiscal framework legislation that would anchor policy is yet to be approved by parliament. The central bank’s use of an exchange rate floor to achieve its inflation target has helped stem deflationary pressures, but inflation is still well below target. The financial system is sound and resilient to shocks. Policy recommendations. Policies should aim at comprehensively addressing obstacles to strong and sustained growth, while safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
July 7, 2016
South Africa: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
Description: South Africa has made considerable economic and social strides since 1994, but faces significant challenges. Deep-rooted structural problems—infrastructure bottlenecks, skill mismatches, and harmful insider-outsider dynamics—have kept unemployment and inequality unacceptably high. Also, a confluence of external and domestic shocks, combined with heightened governance concerns and policy uncertainty, have weighed on confidence and growth. Though private balance sheets are still strong, vulnerabilities are elevated. 2016 growth is projected at 0.1 percent. Only a muted recovery is envisaged from 2017, with rising unemployment. Downside risks dominate and stem mainly from China, heightened global financial volatility, and domestic politics and possible policy missteps. Shocks could be amplified by extensive macro-financial linkages, especially if combined with sovereign credit rating downgrades to speculative grade. On the upside, the recent dialogue between social partners could catalyze reform implementation and invigorate growth.
July 7, 2016
Guyana: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guyana
Description: This paper discusses recent economic developments, the outlook, and risks for the Czech Republic. The economy has been growing at an exceptionally strong pace. Driven by robust domestic demand, output expanded by 4.2 percent—the highest rate in the central and eastern European region—in 2015. Labor market performance has been strong. Fiscal performance was better than budgeted in 2015. The banking sector is stable, and credit growth continues to strengthen. However, economic activity is expected to slow in 2016. Private consumption will remain robust on the heels of higher disposable income and employment, but the projected slowdown in EU-fund absorption will weigh on growth.