Country Reports
2016
July 21, 2016
Niger: Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the ED
Description: This paper discusses Niger’s Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC) and for Modification of PCs. Niger’s medium-term prospects are closely linked to returns on major projects in oil and mineral extraction that are under way. Two of the end-2015 PC for the eighth ECF review were missed (on domestic financing and domestic arrears repayment), as were several indicative targets. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for waivers for the unmet PC on domestic financing and domestic arrears repayments at end-December 2015.
Notes: Also available in French
July 21, 2016
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Regulation of Market Abuse and Issuer Disclosure Requirements
Description: This Technical Assistance report examines regulation of market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements in Ukraine. The Ukrainian regulatory framework for market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements has significant gaps, whose impact is compounded by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission’s (NSSMC) lack of sufficient supervisory, investigative, and enforcement powers. This has contributed to overall lack of transparency and widespread misconduct in the market, including through issuance and trading of “fictitious” securities. To address the current challenges, the Ukrainian legislation needs to be aligned with the international standards to provide the NSSMC with sufficient means to require enhanced disclosures and combat market abuse.
July 21, 2016
Sierra Leone: Sierra Leone: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper aims to measure the impact of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on economic growth in Sierra Leone. A novel empirical approach is used, which is based on a Difference in Differences setup, called the Synthetic Control Method. The model suggests that EVD had a severe impact on growth. In 2014, the first year EVD hit the country, the impact on real growth excluding iron ore is estimated to be more than 5 percentage points. It is suggested that in outer years, the severity of the impact will lessen, and growth will converge to its normal path by 2018.
July 20, 2016
Italy: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing Governance and Effectiveness of the Fiscal Agencies
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to enhance the effectiveness of tax administration system in Italy. The Italian tax administration system comprises multiple entities, which demands tight coordination. Tax revenues are high, but collection performance in the main taxes is mixed. The agencies’ accountability framework to the Ministry of Economy and Finance is very detailed and should be more strategic. The agencies have not been empowered to develop their own medium-term strategic plan. A holistic approach to managing risks to the tax system is needed, including targeted compliance strategies. The accumulation of tax debts is alarming, and structural issues need to be addressed urgently.
July 20, 2016
Dominica: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dominican economy was hit hard by tropical storm Erika in 2015. Agricultural output and manufacturing declined sharply, as the storm affected crops and access to arable land, and prompted the closure of operations of the main industrial plant. Inflation has remained subdued, mainly as a result of falling fuel prices. Notwithstanding weak exports of agriculture and tourism, the 2015 current account deficit remained contained on the back of lower oil imports. Output growth is expected to remain subdued in 2016 at 1.3 percent as the economy slowly recovers from the storm and investment in reconstruction picks up.
July 20, 2016
Dominica: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.
July 20, 2016
Liberia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Ebola epidemic and the fall in commodity prices have revealed the vulnerabilities of Liberia’s economy. After barely positive growth in 2014, GDP was flat in 2015 mainly owing to the decline in activity in the iron ore and rubber sectors. Although international gross reserves increased in 2015, the Central Bank of Liberia’s net foreign exchange position declined owing to operational deficits and exceptional support to the banking sector. In 2016, growth is expected to rise to 2.5 percent, thanks to a rebound in services and the start of gold production, while inflation should stay in the single digits.
July 20, 2016
Liberia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses initiatives to promote export diversification and growth in Liberia. Liberia’s exports have been very concentrated in the past, but some progress in export diversification has been made in recent years, mostly in the enclave sectors. The government has launched the Liberia Agricultural Transformation Agenda (LATA) to support diversification and transformation. LATA strives to build up the agricultural sector as well as adopt a supportive industrial policy. Improving business climate and external competitiveness could play an important role in increasing export diversification in Liberia. Efficiency could also be increased through better access to markets and technology, cheaper imported inputs, as well as more competition with imports.
July 19, 2016
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ recovery from the global financial crisis was hampered by a series of natural disasters, sluggish global demand, and slow implementation of key infrastructure projects. Economic activity appears to have recovered in 2015, led by strong tourism inflows and a rebound in construction. Inflation has trended down owing to falling food and fuel prices. The new airport, now foreseen for completion in 2016, is expected to sustain the near- and medium-term economic growth. Real GDP is projected to expand by 2.2 percent in 2016 and reach 3.1 percent over the medium term.
July 18, 2016
Vietnam: 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vietnam
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.