Country Reports
2016
July 28, 2016
Ireland: 2016 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the rebound of the Irish economy has been exceptional. High frequency indicators suggest that growth momentum has continued in 2016. Solid job creation has reduced the unemployment rate below 8 percent. Inflation has hovered around zero as low commodity and food prices more than offset rising cost of services, particularly housing rents. Taking into account negative spillovers, real GDP growth is projected to decline to just below 5 percent in 2016 and converge to its estimated potential over the medium-term on the back of more moderate export growth and investment activity.
July 28, 2016
Republic of the Marshall Islands: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of the Marshall Islands
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Marshall Islands is estimated to have expanded by about 0.5 percent in FY2015 (ending September 30), as the fishery sector recovered. Following a moderate inflation of 1.1 percent in FY2014, headline inflation dropped to –2.2 percent in FY2015 amid falling oil and utility prices. The fiscal balance is estimated to have recorded a surplus of about 3 percent of GDP in FY2014–15, owing to record-high fishing license fees. Growth is expected to rise to about 1.5 percent and inflation to about 0.5 percent in FY2016, as the effects of the drought in earlier 2016 are offset by the resumption of infrastructure projects.
July 27, 2016
United Republic of Tanzania: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines productivity, growth, structural reforms, and macroeconomic policies in Tanzania. Tanzania experienced macroeconomic stabilization and significant structural change over the last three decades, including two major waves of reforms, first in the mid-1980s and more importantly in the mid-1990s. Both reform waves were followed by total factor productivity (TFP) and growth spurts. Over the recent period, TFP growth decreased, which coincided with a less strong reform drive. It is suggested that a TFP-led growth model is superior and that vigorous reforms are needed to foster further structural transformation of the economy and sustain high productivity gains and investment.
July 27, 2016
United Republic of Tanzania: Selected Issues-Macrofinancial Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the financial sector in Tanzania. The Tanzanian financial system has a number of characteristics commonly seen in other low-income countries. The system is relatively small, dominated by banks, and has not been particularly inclusive. Costs related to basic financial services have come down. However, in other areas, progress remains limited. Firms’ access to credit remains a problem, access to the financial infrastructure continues to lag, and market development remains at a low level. The banking system overall is well-capitalized and reasonably profitable, but there is considerable variation among bank categories.
July 27, 2016
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Description: This paper discusses Afghanistan’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The program sets out a structural reform agenda that focuses on institution building, fiscal and financial reforms, and measures to combat corruption to lay the foundations for scaled up private sector development. The envisaged reforms dovetail with Afghanistan’s National Development Framework currently being finalized. The program aims to preserve macro-financial stability by implementing prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and by maintaining external buffers and a flexible exchange rate regime. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF arrangement under an IMF-supported program.
July 27, 2016
United Arab Emirates: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that non-oil economic activity in the United Arab Emirates slowed to 3.7 percent in 2015. Negative effects on overall growth were partially offset by the increase in oil production. Despite the strong fiscal policy response to adjust to lower oil prices, the fiscal balance turned to a deficit of 2.1 percent of GDP, while the current account surplus declined to 3.3 percent of GDP. Banks remained well capitalized and liquid, though pressures on profitability are emerging as asset quality weakens owing to the economic slowdown and rising funding costs. Economic activity is expected to moderate further in 2016, before improving over the medium term.
July 27, 2016
United Republic of Tanzania: Staff Report for the 2016 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The United Republic of Tanzania
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Tanzania has remained strong and inflation moderate during the past two years. Real GDP grew by 7 percent in 2015, with activity particularly buoyant in the construction, communication, finance, and transportation sectors. Inflation remained in single digits throughout 2015, averaging 5.6 percent, despite the significant exchange rate depreciation in the first half of 2015. Inflation in April 2016 was 5.1 percent, close to the authorities’ target of 5 percent. The banking system appears sound overall, but there is wide variation within the system. The level of financial development has improved in recent years, though at a gradual pace.
July 26, 2016
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economy of St. Kitts and Nevis continued its strong growth at about 5 percent, recording the strongest growth in the region during 2013–15. Strong growth has been underpinned by construction and tourism sector activity and their favorable spillovers on the rest of the economy, supported by surging inflows from its Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) program. Large CBI inflows continued in 2015, albeit at a slower pace. The medium-term outlook is positive, but remains dependent on developments in CBI inflows. Growth is expected to moderate to 3.5 percent in 2016 and 3 percent, on average, over the medium term.
July 21, 2016
Sierra Leone: 2016 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Financing Assurances Review and Request for an Extension of the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic outcomes in Sierra Leone have deteriorated sharply over the past two years. Growth declined dramatically from 20.7 percent in 2013, to 4.6 percent in 2014, and further to –21.1 percent in 2015. The budget is under severe pressure. Between mid-2014 and end-2015, the Leone depreciated 22 percent against the U.S. dollar. Banking sector vulnerabilities have increased. Living standards have also deteriorated significantly since late 2014. The medium-term outlook is somewhat positive, with growth projected to recover to 4.3 percent in 2016, increasing gradually to about 6.5 percent by 2020.
July 21, 2016
Republic of Armenia: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Armenia
Description: This paper discusses Armenia’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Growth in Armenia is expected to remain subdued as recession in Russia continues and as the base effects of the 2015 one-off factors dissipate. The program performance has been broadly satisfactory. All end-December 2015 PCs, except for the fiscal deficit PC, and all the continuous PCs were met. The fiscal deficit PC was missed by 0.3 percent of GDP. The IMF staff supports completion of the review and the authorities’ request for a purchase in an amount equivalent to SDR 15.65 million.