Country Reports
2016
August 2, 2016
Japan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth of Japan has slowed owing to weak private consumption and sluggish investment and that inflation has lost its forward momentum. Although financial conditions remain accommodative, falling stock prices and the appreciation of the yen have resulted in a modest tightening. The outlook for growth and inflation remains subdued. The economy is expected to expand at a moderate pace of about 0.3 percent in 2016, before slowing to 0.1 percent in 2017, excluding the possible effect of the yet-to-be-adopted economic stimulus package.
August 2, 2016
Japan: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the findings of the IMF staff research focusing on labor market dynamics, economic growth, the financial sector, private investment, and monetary policy in Japan. Japan’s labor market has fared relatively well considering the occasional substantial output losses, with unemployment remaining low. Although Japan’s employment responsiveness to the cyclical position has been relatively low, it has been rising over time reflecting the higher share of the nonregular workforce. The lower employment response to output compared with other countries during the Great Recession reflects the quick implementation of an employment subsidy program, a more flexible wage system, and strong employment protection.
August 2, 2016
Morocco: Request for an Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s request for an arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and cancellation of the current arrangement. Morocco’s economic fundamentals and policy frameworks are sound. The country is implementing sound policies and remains committed to maintaining such policies in the future. The IMF staff assesses that Morocco performs strongly in four of the five areas of PLL qualification, does not substantially underperform in the fiscal area, and does not face any of the circumstances under which the IMF might no longer approve a PLL arrangement. The IMF staff recommends the approval of the authorities’ request.
August 1, 2016
South Africa: Technical Assistance Report-Petroleum Sector Fiscal Regime Reform-Additional Analysis for the Davis Tax Committee
Description: This Technical Assistance report lists key issues discussed between the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) and the Davis Tax Committee regarding recommendations for tax reforms in the oil and gas sector in South Africa. It is suggested that the royalty should have a single flat rate, rather than the current variable rate formula. The 5 percent flat rate proposed in the FAD report is modest by international standards. For corporate tax purposes, the current immediate expensing of capital expenditure and the 100 percent and 50 percent uplifts for exploration and development expenditure are overly generous and will lead to both a revenue loss and a long delay before revenue is collected.
Notes: See also the FAD 2015 Report
July 29, 2016
Guinea: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents the results of the application of the Debt, Investment, and Growth model to the case of Guinea. The model application allows simulation of the macroeconomic implications of scaled-up investment on growth, fiscal policy, and debt sustainability. A scenario analysis comparing the results under different investment paths is also presented. The results suggest that Guinea stands to benefit substantially from scaled-up public investment. Model-based estimates suggest that the GDP per capita benefits from the authorities’ public infrastructure program could be in the vicinity of 2–4 percent. However, ensuring that the expected growth and poverty reduction gains are realized requires the implementation of an accompanying fiscal strategy to preserve macroeconomic stability.
July 29, 2016
Guinea: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea’s economic performance over the past four years fell significantly short of the authorities’ ambitious projections. Economic growth averaged 1.8 percent during 2012–15, significantly below the performance of peers, and GDP per capita is estimated to have fallen, likely inducing an increase in poverty. The economy is recovering from the effects of the Ebola epidemic. Growth is projected to rebound to 3.7 percent in 2016, on the back of higher electricity provision from the Kaleta hydroelectric dam and a strong increase in bauxite production. The medium-term outlook is favorable, but continues to be clouded by downside risks.
July 29, 2016
Singapore: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economy continues to perform well despite being hit by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, originating both at home and abroad. Growth moderated from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015, and it was 2.2 percent in the first half of 2016. Unemployment has remained low, but net employment generation slowed rapidly in 2015, and headline inflation has stayed below zero since late 2014. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.7 percent in 2016 as the full impact of the global shocks experienced in 2015 is felt, and is expected to recover to 2.2 percent in 2017.
July 29, 2016
Singapore: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper develops a new calibrated model of the Singapore economy, the Singapore Global Policy MODel (SGPMOD), and uses it to conduct a variety of policy experiments focused on the conduct of monetary policy. The SGPMOD is used to illustrate the role of the monetary policy responses of Singapore’s monetary authority following a variety of domestic and external shocks. It is suggested that monetary policy can do little to prevent the trough in real GDP in late 2016, but it can definitely contribute to a speedier recovery. In the near term, there is general global turbulence in exchange rate markets, exacerbating the negative effects from Singapore’s transmission mechanism and its reliance on the uncovered interest parity condition.
July 28, 2016
Ireland: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for Ireland. The Irish financial system has strengthened significantly since the crisis and undergone major structural changes. Important vulnerabilities in the banking system relate to the real-estate sector, some parts of the corporate sector, the sovereign, and funding in pound sterling. Pockets of weakness remain, notably among highly leveraged households and smaller domestic firms. Over the medium term, technological innovations and shifts in competitive pressures will throw up challenges to the profitability of both banks and nonbank financial institutions. The U.K. vote to leave the EU is also very likely to have negative effects on the Irish financial system.
July 28, 2016
Ireland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews public expenditure efficiency in Ireland. Evidence suggests that while Ireland is a low spending country, it achieves a generally efficient use of public funds, with some key differences across sectors. Although the overall space for budgetary savings appears limited, further spending efficiency could help contain cost pressures coming from the demographic challenge of an aging population and improve the quality of public services. It could also help rechannel spending toward more productive uses, for instance by increasing public investment relative to current expenditure, and support the competitive position of the Irish economy and its growth potential.