Country Reports

August 24, 2016

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director

Description: This paper discusses the common policies needed for the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC growth was subdued in 2015. It slowed to 1.6 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2014, because of reduced public investment and lower oil production. Policies to counter the oil-price shock need to focus on fiscal consolidation and real-economy reforms. In the wake of the oil-price shock, monetary financing has been the primary response tool. Fiscal policy coordination among members should be strengthened, and fiscal discipline enforcement is needed. Real-economy reforms, focusing on improving the business climate and boosting private investment, are also needed to preserve macroeconomic stability.

Notes: Also Available in French

August 22, 2016

Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten: 2016 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the fiscal situation in Curaçao and Sint Maarten remains relatively stable, following the debt relief in 2010, but progress on necessary fiscal and structural reforms has been slow. Curaçao experienced modest growth in 2015 of 0.1 percent, reflecting a turnaround from the contraction of 1.1 percent in 2014. The economy of Sint Maarten expanded by 0.5 percent in 2015, a slowdown compared with the 1.5 percent recorded in 2014. Real GDP growth in 2016 is expected to reach 0.5 percent in Curaçao and 0.7 percent in Sint Maarten. Over the medium term, growth is expected to pick up moderately to 0.9 percent and 1.3 percent for Curaçao and Sint Maarten, respectively.

August 17, 2016

Chad: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the structure of the financial sector in Chad and describes the key macro-financial linkages. Macro-financial linkages in Chad are driven by a government sector that dominates economic activities in the more modern sectors of the economy, thanks to oil-related revenues. The main macro-financial linkages are indirect through the associated sharp fiscal adjustment and the government’s quest for additional financing. Direct credit risks linked to the oil sector appear limited. However, there seems to be a link between declining oil prices and deteriorating banking soundness indicators. The current economic conditions negatively affect private companies dependent on public contracts, potentially hitting the health of banks’ loan portfolios.

Notes: Also available in French

August 17, 2016

Chad: 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic outcomes in Chad continue to underperform, owing to the major impact of two exogenous shocks: lower oil prices and higher regional insecurity. Oil revenues have collapsed to a fraction of their previous level and are expected to recover only partially and gradually. Economic activity slowed sharply in 2015, with GDP growth estimated to have decelerated to 1.8 percent from 6.9 percent in 2014. The short- and medium-term outlooks remain challenging. Including a contraction of 1.1 percent in 2016, GDP growth is projected to average about 2 percent a year during 2016–18, compared with almost 5 percent during 2013–15.

Notes: Also available in French

August 16, 2016

Republic of Madagascar: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility: First Review Under the Staff Monitored Program-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar

Description: This paper discusses the Republic of Madagascar’s request for an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and first review under the Staff Monitored Program (SMP). Madagascar’s macroeconomic performance was broadly satisfactory under the SMP, which ran from September 2015 to the end of March 2016. The authorities’ ECF-supported program, anchored on their National Development Plan, aims to reinforce macroeconomic stability and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. It focuses on promoting robust and inclusive growth, combining improved access to education, health care, and social protection with infrastructure and private sector development. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an ECF.

Notes: Also Available in French

August 12, 2016

The People's Republic of China: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews China’s progress along various dimensions of rebalancing. External rebalancing has advanced well, while progress on internal rebalancing has been mixed—substantial on the supply side, moderate on the demand side, and limited on credit dependence. Rebalancing on the environment and inclusiveness has lagged. The high national rate of saving is expected to fall owing to demographic change and a stronger social safety net. The consumption ratio is expected to increase with a rising labor income share and less household saving. Supply-side rebalancing from industry to services is expected to advance further, helping reduce the carbon intensity of output and promote income equality.

Notes: Also available in Chinese

August 12, 2016

The People's Republic of China: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The People's Republic of China

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights China’s continued transition to sustainable growth, with progress on many fronts. Growth slowed to 6.9 percent in 2015 and is projected to moderate to 6.6 percent in 2016 owing to slower private investment and weak external demand. The economy is advancing on many dimensions of rebalancing, particularly switching from industry to services and from investment to consumption. But other aspects are lagging, such as strengthening state-owned enterprises and financial governance and containing rapid credit growth. The current account surplus is projected to decline to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2016 as imports increase and the services deficit widens with continued outbound tourism.

Notes: Also available in Chinese

August 10, 2016

Central African Republic: 2016 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in the Central African Republic has remained anemic since 2013 owing to structural rigidities, poor infrastructure, and limited energy supply. Inflation reached 11.6 percent in 2014 and receded to 4.5 percent in 2015 thanks to improved supply conditions and a fall in the prices of basic imports. Corrective measures implemented in 2015 allowed revenue to reach 7.1 percent. IMF Executive Directors have commended the authorities for the progress achieved under their economic program supported by the Rapid Credit Facility, which has helped stabilize the economy, rebuild core administrative capacity, and improve the management of public resources.

August 10, 2016

Central African Republic: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the underlying causes of the Central African Republic’s “fragility trap” and sheds light on factors linked to building resilience. The persist fragility in the Central African Republic can be attributed to several factors: lack of political cohesion and state weakness that led to protracted political crises and conflicts, weak capacity and poor commitment to building economic institutions, and the inability to generate or appropriately use fiscal buffers. The findings underscore the need for promoting peaceful and inclusive societies; strong international support; and building effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions—especially fiscal institutions—as a foundation for building resilience in the Central African Republic’s exit from fragility.

August 3, 2016

United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses performance and risks posed by government-related entities (GREs) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). GREs continue to be a major source of growth and development for the UAE, but they also pose significant fiscal and financial risks. GREs’ debt remains high in the UAE, although it is declining and remains actively managed. To mitigate GREs’ risks, the authorities should build on recent progress and develop an integrated approach, including implementing prudent fiscal policies, enhancing macro- and microprudential frameworks, controlling GREs’ borrowing and integrating them into the public debt management framework, and further strengthening corporate governance and transparency.