Country Reports

September 14, 2016

Republic of Azerbaijan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic performance in Azerbaijan has been impaired by a number of negative shocks. Lower oil prices, weak regional growth, currency devaluations in its main trading partners, and a contraction in hydrocarbon production rapidly erased the large current account surplus the country enjoyed during the oil boom years. Near-term economic prospects remain weak. Under current policies, growth is expected to contract in 2016 and remain sluggish in the next few years, while inflation is expected to gradually decrease. The current account balance should improve as the devaluations work to limit imports and support nontraditional exports.

September 9, 2016

Albania: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release and Staff Report

Description: This paper discusses Albania’s Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria . All performance criteria at the end of April 2016 were met with comfortable margins, and good progress has been made on the structural reform agenda. The economic recovery is strengthening, supported by large energy-related investments and a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The current account deficit is widening owing to import-intensive foreign direct investment. Inflation is recovering from very low levels, although underlying inflation pressure remains weak. The IMF staff supports the completion of the Eighth Review under the Extended Arrangement.

September 9, 2016

Ecuador: Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador

Description: This paper discusses Ecuador’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The Ecuadoran authorities are requesting financial assistance under the IMF’s RFI to address the urgent balance of payments (BOP) needs associated with emergency and reconstruction efforts. Given the urgency of their request, they are not currently in a position to implement a full-fledged upper-credit-tranche program, and they believe they can make suitable adjustments to manage their medium-term BOP challenges. Given the nature of the emergency, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a purchase under the RFI.

September 9, 2016

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Description: This paper discusses Bosnia and Herzegovina’s request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. Growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina was 3.2 percent in 2015, despite fiscal consolidation as a result of financing constraints, and is expected to be about the same in 2016. The authorities adopted a comprehensive reform agenda in early 2015 that aims to address tepid growth and high unemployment in a sustainable manner. Given the commitment by the authorities at all levels to steadfastly implement their program and to adjust policies as circumstances change, the IMF staff expects the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina to progress in dealing with its present challenges. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for an extended arrangement.

Notes: Also Available in Bosnian

September 9, 2016

Kiribati: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release;Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Kiribati’s recent economic performance has been strong. Growth is estimated to have reached 3.5 percent in 2015, supported by record-high fishing revenue, donor-financed infrastructure projects, and reconstruction in the aftermath of cyclone Pam. The fiscal position has improved markedly in recent years. High fishing revenue contributed to a recurrent fiscal balance of almost 50 percent of GDP in 2015, more than offsetting the increase in recurrent government spending of 13 percent. Growth is projected to moderate somewhat to about 3 percent in 2016, while inflation remains subdued owing to low food and commodity prices.

September 8, 2016

Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the appropriate level of international reserves for the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa. The management of the regional central bank’s (BEAC’s) international reserves is governed by monetary cooperation agreements with France. In view of current risks, it is suggested that the BEAC should define its target level of international reserves. The BEAC should have a framework that reflects fairly each member state’s contribution to the pooled reserves. The enforcement of the surrender requirement should be based on a finding of noncompliance even if the target level is achieved. The institutional framework for reserve management should also provide for the achievement of the target level.

September 7, 2016

Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Contingency Planning and Crisis Management

Description: This Technical Assistance report makes recommendations regarding introduction of an effective framework for contingency planning and crisis management, including bank resolution and deposit guarantees, in Slovenia. It is recommended that a communication plan and strategy be developed, both within the Bank of Slovenia and at the national level, to speak with one voice during financial crises. The members of Co-ordination Group/Financial Stability Board (CG/FSB) must harmonize their efforts to carefully coordinate information, provide consistent communication to the public, and ensure that they use the same facts and assumptions. Whenever a crisis appears forthcoming, CG/FSB members should plan to deliver a media statement providing information in a constructive manner to reassure the public.

September 2, 2016

Republic of Serbia: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Rephasing of the Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia

Description: This paper discusses Serbia’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Rephasing of the Arrangement. The program is delivering good results, particularly in achieving key macroeconomic objectives. Significant fiscal tightening and efforts to address structural weaknesses have helped boost confidence and restore growth. This has been supported by a healthy credit recovery on the back of substantial monetary policy easing as inflation has been persistently low. Notwithstanding this progress, public debt remains elevated and delays continue in some structural reforms, in part owing to recent elections. Further structural reforms are required to improve the business climate and support Serbia’s medium-term growth.

September 1, 2016

Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes

Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.

September 1, 2016

Djibouti: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the fiscal reforms needed for fiscal sustainability and inclusive growth in Djibouti. Djibouti is experiencing a predominantly debt-financed scaling up of public investment, which the authorities consider vital to boost growth and reduce widespread poverty and unemployment. Fiscal reforms will be needed to support fiscal consolidation and open up space for propoor expenditures that promote inclusive growth. Reform of the investment incentive framework and overall tax regime is also required to support fiscal consolidation and to level the playing field for investors and enhance revenue mobilization.

Notes: Also Available in French