Country Reports

November 2, 2016

Panama: 2016 article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Panama’s expected continued growth—among the strongest in Latin America—against a backdrop of low inflation, a stable financial system, and a declining current account deficit. GDP grew by 5.8 percent in 2015, and growth is projected to remain at about 6 percent in 2016 and over the medium term. The economy will be supported by the expected opening of the expanded canal and lower fuel prices. The overall fiscal deficit is expected to consolidate to 1.2 percent of GDP over the medium term. Public debt is projected as sustainable.

October 31, 2016

Vanuatu: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Vanuatu

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vanuatu’s economy is gradually recovering from the extensive damages caused by Cyclone Pam, which hit the country in March 2015. The cyclone led to a decline in GDP of about 0.8 percent in 2015. The current account deficit widened to 11 percent of GDP in 2015 from an average of 3 percent of GDP in the previous three years. Near-term prospects are favorable, but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 4 percent in 2016 and 4.5 percent in 2017 driven by the recovery in tourism and agriculture, and further ramping-up of infrastructure projects.

October 27, 2016

Belize: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes macro-financial linkages for Belize. The banking system in Belize is facing significant challenges that could have a negative impact on the wider economy. Under adverse scenarios, the loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) could have a sizeable impact on Belize’s economy and financial stability as fewer CBRs, different local banks’ business models, or stricter due diligence requirements could kick many economic agents out of formal trade and finance channels. Threats to the financial system, including those related to money laundering and terrorist financing, should be tackled on multiple fronts, including through closer coordination with regional and global public and private partners.

October 27, 2016

Belize: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Excutive Director for Belize

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belize is facing multiple challenges. GDP growth slowed to 1 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil production and reduced output in the primary commodity sectors, and turned to negative 1.5 percent in the first half of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015. The decline in oil and other commodity prices led to deflation in 2015. GDP is projected to decline by 1.5 percent in 2016. The current account deficit would slowly improve owing to a gradual recovery in major commodity exports, but would remain high, indicating a weak external position.

October 25, 2016

Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release and Staff Report

Description: This IMF Staff Report for the 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) Member Countries highlights that the regional recovery in ECCU is gaining ground, supported by continued low oil prices, strong tourism arrivals, and robust citizenship-by-investment receipts. Risks to the near-term outlook are balanced, but growth in the ECCU continues to be hindered by weak competitiveness, banking sector fragilities, susceptibility to natural disasters, and large public debt. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to press ahead with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to decisively address these issues and strengthen the conditions for robust long term growth.

October 25, 2016

Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix

Description: Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix

October 19, 2016

Republic of Palau: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Palau’s economy has performed well in recent years. The economy grew strongly in FY2015 (ending September 30, 2015) at 9.4 percent, with tourist arrivals and construction activity expanding by 35 percent. However, the rapid rise in tourism activity strained infrastructure and was tilted toward low budget tourists, which led the authorities to limit the number of charter flights in FY2016. The outlook for Palau is also favorable. Economic growth is expected to slow temporarily to zero in FY2016 as tourist arrivals decline, but to rebound to 5 percent in FY2017 as tourism activity recovers with the entry of new hotels and construction picks up.

October 13, 2016

Pakistan: Twelfth and Final Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan

Description: This paper discusses Pakistan’s Twelfth and Final Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring. The authorities met most PCs at end-June 2016, but the PCs on the budget deficit and Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the State Bank of Pakistan were missed by small margins. They also met all program indicative targets. Structural benchmarks on financial sector reform, privatization, and energy sector reform were met. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the twelfth review under the arrangement and for waivers for nonobservance of the end-June PCs on the budget deficit and NDA.

October 13, 2016

Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the options for financing the government fiscal deficit in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government is working to develop a comprehensive strategy to meet its budget financing needs. Although external borrowing could alleviate pressure on the domestic market, it will also create new risks. Reliance on foreign investors may help further enhance transparency. Foreign investors’ demand for diversification could also allow the Saudi government to enjoy attractive yields. Broadening the investor base and ensuring that the government’s debt issuance supports the development of the private debt market could help alleviate some of the negative economic and financial effects of higher government debt.

Notes: Also available in Arabic

October 13, 2016

Saudi Arabia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth in Saudi Arabia is expected to slow to 1.2 percent in 2016, but recover to 2 percent in 2017 as the pace of fiscal consolidation eases. Inflation has risen in recent months to more than 4 percent owing to increase in energy and water prices. Bank deposits have declined, but growth of credit to the private sector remains strong. Capital buffers are high, nonperforming loans low, and banks are well provisioned against loan losses. The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 6.4 percent of GDP in 2016 and then move close to balance by 2021 as oil prices partial recover.

Notes: Also available in Arabic