Country Reports

November 10, 2016

Argentina: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina

Description: An inherited legacy of imbalances. Upon taking office in December last year, Argentina’s new government faced pervasive macroeconomic imbalances, microeconomic distortions, and a weakened institutional framework. These encompassed unsustainably high consumption levels, historically low levels of investment, and large fiscal deficits financed by money creation, which led to high inflation. Distortions at the micro level included an extensive network of administrative controls (for example, trade barriers, foreign exchange restrictions, and price controls) and a business environment that eroded competitiveness and undermined medium-term growth. There was also an important weakening of the institutional framework for economic policymaking, perhaps most evident in the loss of credibility of the national statistics agency.

November 10, 2016

Argentina: Selected Issues

Description: This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.

November 9, 2016

Republic of Moldova: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova

Description: Since late 2014, Moldova’s economy has been hit by a number of domestic and external shocks. Chief among them is the exposure of extensive and well-orchestrated fraud in the banking system, resulting in the closure of three banks at a public cost of 10 percent of GDP. During the following period, confidence collapsed, external concessional financing largely froze, and international reserves fell by one-third, prompting significant tightening of monetary conditions. Domestic political turmoil, marked by three changes in government, constrained solutions and delayed collaboration with the international community on possible financial support.

November 7, 2016

Morocco: Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy: Institutional Arrangements and Instruments

Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Morocco in the area of macroprudential policy, which can play an important role in mitigating financial stability risks in Morocco. The institutional framework is sound, but could be further strengthened. The current institutional setup comprising the Systemic Risk Surveillance and Coordination Committee provides a good framework, but remaining gaps could undermine its ability and willingness to act. Bank Al-Maghrib has recently taken important steps to advance financial stability analysis and develop a macroprudential policy framework. A risk mapping framework is now in place, a Financial Stability Report is now produced, and stress testing has been fine-tuned.

November 7, 2016

Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Crisis Management, Bank Resolution, and Financial Sector Safety Net

Description: This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Poland. Thanks to its sound policies, close links to the German supply chain, and substantial EU transfers, Poland is the only country in the European Union that avoided an outright recession during the global financial crisis. However, this strong performance has masked enduring regional disparities, which are undermining the quality of growth. Poland faces significant long-term challenges as an aging population weighs on potential growth and public finances. The new government, which took office in November, has approved a Responsible Development Plan, focused on spurring growth through innovation and reducing social and regional disparities.

November 7, 2016

Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Banking Supervision

Description: This paper describes mainly the introduction and performance of the Extended Fund Facility program for Pakistan. Since the start of the program in September 2013, economic growth has gradually recovered, inflation has fallen to low single digits, foreign reserve buffers have been rebuilt, social safety nets have been strengthened, and the fiscal deficit has significantly declined (although public debt remains high). Despite setbacks in privatization earlier in the year due to labor unrest and political opposition, the authorities remain committed to returning ailing public sector enterprises to a sound financial position, including through private participation, and to completing energy sector reform.

November 7, 2016

Tunisia: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Description: This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in the East, scaling up public infrastructure to attract investment to less productive regions, and facilitating labor mobility. This paper also discusses female labor participation in Poland and the potential impact on bank profitability of the recently implemented bank asset tax. Poland’s population is aging, yet it has an important underused source of qualified labor—its women. For Poland to unleash its full economic potential, it needs to embrace the vital contribution that women can make to its economy.

Notes: Also Available in French; See Also: Press Release

November 4, 2016

Morocco: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking System

Description: This Technical Note discusses the key findings of the stress testing of the banking system in Morocco. The stress tests examined the resilience of the Moroccan banking system to solvency, liquidity, and contagion risks. The global liquidity stress tests revealed that most banks in the system would be exposed to liquidity risks in the event of large deposit withdrawals, under a more severe scenario than the Basel III Liquidity Coverage Ratio metrics, or depletion of unsecured wholesale funding. Banks were found to be less vulnerable to direct contagion risk through bilateral exposure. The contagion risk analysis revealed that the risks stemming from domestic interbank exposures are very limited.

November 3, 2016

Cambodia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights growth in the Cambodian economy of about 7 percent in 2015, supported by strong garment exports, real estate and construction activity, and a reduction in oil prices. Inflation unexpectedly picked up at the end of 2015, to 2.8 percent, owing to higher food prices following extreme weather, but it remains well contained. Private sector credit growth has averaged nearly 30 percent over the past three years, doubling the credit-to-GDP ratio to 62 percent by the end of 2015. The near-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at about 7 percent for 2016–17, supported by strong garment exports and real estate and construction activity.

November 2, 2016

Panama: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the effectiveness of Panama's fiscal framework. The fiscal framework of Panama has played an important role in enhancing fiscal discipline since its establishment in 2009. Since the current fiscal framework went into effect in 2009, the primary balance and debt-to-GDP ratio of the nonfinancial public sector have improved significantly on average compared with those in 2000–08. The fiscal impulse given the output gap also shows that fiscal policy was less procyclical in 2009–15 than in 2001–08. However, there are options to better align the framework with best practice, including reducing unintended procyclicality, increasing transparency, and improving accountability.