Country Reports

November 17, 2016

Sweden: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Sweden’s strong economic performance, with real GDP growth heading for about 3.4 percent in 2016 on the heels of an expansion of just over 4 percent in 2015. Employment has increased by 1.5 percent so far in 2016, pushing unemployment down to about 7 percent. Growth is expected to moderate to a still solid 2.4 percent in 2017. The fiscal deficit is expected to be small in 2016, even as migration-related government spending has almost doubled to about 1.4 percent of GDP owing to the surge in refugee inflows in 2015.

November 16, 2016

United Kingdom: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Description: This report assesses fiscal transparency practices in the United Kingdom in relation to the requirements of the IMF’s new Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Across all pillars evaluated in the code, the United Kingdom scores very highly when compared with other countries that have undergone an assessment. Of the 48 principles in the FTC, the United Kingdom meets 9 principles at the basic level, 10 principles at the good level, and 23 principles at the advanced level. Fiscal transparency practices are strongest in the area of fiscal reporting and resource revenue management. In four principles, the United Kingdom’s transparency practices do not currently meet basic practice.

November 16, 2016

Republic of Equatorial Guinea: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Director for the Republic of Equatorial Guinea

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Equatorial Guinea’s overall real GDP growth has been weak in recent years averaging –0.5 percent from 2010–14, largely owing to a trend decline of the dominant hydrocarbon sector. Economic performance deteriorated substantially in the wake of the 2014 oil-price shock. In 2015, the pace of the contraction intensified, and economic activity declined by 7.4 percent. The near-term outlook is very challenging, given prospects for depressed energy prices and a continued decline in hydrocarbon production. Weak oil revenues and limited buffers will require further cuts to public investment, leading to a deep contraction of the large construction sector and public administration.

Notes: Also Available in Spanish

November 15, 2016

Brazil: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

Description: The economy is still in its deepest recession in decades, partly the result of the failure of past policies. The recession has been aggravated by a political crisis, which had, until recently, paralyzed policymaking and further damaged confidence. President Rousseff was impeached for responsibility crimes related to fiscal practices on August 31, and the government that took office in May will remain in charge until January 1st, 2019. Markets have responded positively to the new government’s reform agenda, bolstering asset prices and confidence and helping the country ride a positive wave of sentiment toward emerging economies. However, while some high-frequency indicators suggest the recession may be nearing its end, the implementation of much-needed reforms to durably restore policy credibility is subject to risks.

November 15, 2016

Jamaica: Request for Stand By Arrangement and Cancellation of the Current Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release and Staff Report

Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s Request for Stand By Arrangement (SBA) and Cancellation of the Current Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Fiscal discipline and proactive debt management have helped reduce public debt by more than 25 percent of GDP since the start of the extended arrangement under the EFF. Macroeconomic stability is becoming entrenched as evidenced by low inflation, the buildup of foreign currency reserves, and a decline in the current account deficit. Important reforms are also being undertaken to unlock Jamaica’s growth potential. In view of the country’s recent track record and authorities’ commitment to reforms and maintaining an open dialog with the IMF, the IMF staff supports the request for the precautionary SBA.

November 15, 2016

Brazil: Selected Issues

Description: This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.

November 15, 2016

Liberia: Public Investment Management Assessment

Description: This Technical Assistance Report presents an evaluation of the public investment management (PIM) in Liberia. The overall performance of PIM in Liberia is in line with that of comparable low-income countries, and reflects the country’s post-conflict status, which severely damaged its infrastructure, and heavy dependence on external loans and grants. About 80 percent of Liberia’s public investment is financed through external sources. grants and concessional loans, and executed outside the budget. These sources of funding are not within government’s control and have contributed to the volatility of public investment in recent years.

November 10, 2016

Dominican Republic: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report

Description: The Dominican Republic remains among the most dynamic economies in the region, benefiting from a strengthened macro-policy framework and external tailwinds. It does not face significant internal or external imbalances: inflation is low, fiscal deficits and debt moderate, and the external position is broadly in line with fundamentals. Vulnerabilities remain, however: public debt is set to increase over the medium-term and the tax ratio is one of the lowest in the world, reserves are below the Fund’s suggested metric, legacy bottlenecks in the electricity sector remain unresolved, and social challenges persist. The consultations focused on policies to address these vulnerabilities and strengthen the economy’s resilience to external shocks.

November 10, 2016

Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper

Description: This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.

November 10, 2016

Bulgaria: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria

Description: The Bulgarian economy has shown resilience since the last Article IV consultation. Growth over the last 4 quarters exceeded expectations. The authorities took concrete steps to correct the fiscal slippage in 2014 and efforts are underway to strengthen confidence in the health of the financial system. Looking ahead, risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Downside risks stem mostly from weak external demand, possible regional tension, and reversal in domestic policy reforms.