Country Reports

December 19, 2016

Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe: Settlement of Overdue Financial Obligations to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust,Lifting of Declaration of Noncooperation, Lifting of Restriction on Fund Technical Assistance, and Restoration of Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust Eligibility-Press Release; and Staff Report

Description: This paper discusses Zimbabwe’s Settlement of Overdue Financial Obligations to the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), Lifting of Declaration of Noncooperation, Lifting of Restriction on IMF technical assistance, and restoration of PRGT eligibility. In light of Zimbabwe’s settlement of its overdue financial obligations to the PRGT, the IMF staff proposes that the Board remove the remaining remedial measures. Zimbabwe is eligible to return to the PRGT-eligibility list. The IMF staff also proposes that the Board lift the declaration of noncooperation, remove the remaining restriction on the provision of IMF technical assistance, and reinstate Zimbabwe as a PRGT-eligible country.

December 19, 2016

Cote D'Ivoire: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cote D'Ivoire

Description: This paper discusses Côte D’Ivoire’s Requests for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Extending the gains of 2015, solid economic and fiscal performance continued in 2016. Strong investment and private consumption contributed to real GDP growth estimated at about 9 percent in 2015. In 2016, booming extractive industries and rising domestic demand supported activity in the commercial sector, which should sustain GDP growth at about 8 percent. The macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, but structural bottlenecks pose challenges to sustained strong growth. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the ECF and EFF arrangements.

Notes: Also Available in French

December 15, 2016

Switzerland: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Switzerland withstood relatively well the sharp appreciation that followed the exit from the exchange rate floor. Economic performance has continued to firm in 2016 with support from domestic and external demand. GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.5 percent in 2016, and to stabilize at 1.7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory in 2017 and to continue to rise to the middle of the target band. However, important external and domestic risks could affect this outlook, including resurgence in global financial market volatility, renewed concerns about the financial health of large global banks, and changes in Swiss–European Union economic relations.

December 14, 2016

Republic of Madagascar: Financial System Stability Assessment

Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment concerning Madagascar. The analysis reveals that the Madagascar’s banking sector is exposed to significant risks, though it has certain buffers, such as high profitability and a stable deposit base. Currently the economy is recovering, and enjoys the prospect of resumption in inflows of foreign aid and investment; inflation is coming down and the balance of payments has strengthened. Banking supervision is not yet able to proactively detect and address emerging risks; doing so will require additional resources and political will. Efforts are also needed to promote financial deepening and inclusion, consistent with the maintenance of stability and consumer protection.

Notes: Also Available in French

December 13, 2016

Republic of Armenia: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Armenia

Description: This paper discusses Armenia’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Growth is expected to reach about 2.5 percent in 2016, as the external environment continues to be weak and the effects of past positive one-off factors dissipate. Domestic demand is expected to remain subdued and inflation to remain slightly negative by end-year. The headline fiscal deficit is expected to widen to nearly 6 percent of GDP, although the cyclically adjusted primary balance is projected to fall slightly vis-à-vis 2015. The IMF staff supports completion of the review and the authorities’ request for a purchase in the amount equivalent to SDR 15.65 million.

December 13, 2016

Iraq: First Review of the Three-Year Stand-By Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of the Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq

Description: This paper discusses Iraq’s First Review of the Three-Year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria (PCs). Two PCs at end September appear to have been met on the basis of preliminary unaudited data. One PC at end-June 2016 was missed. One continuous PC was missed. Completion of some structural benchmarks was delayed, but progress is being made for each. Hence, program performance has been mixed, but understandings on sufficient corrective actions have been reached to put the program back on track. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first review under the SBA and the financing assurances review and modification of the PCs and related rephrasing.

December 9, 2016

Guatemala: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Description: This paper discusses key findings of the Fiscal Transparency Evaluation report on Guatemala. Guatemala has transparency practices that achieve the ratings of basic, good, and advanced regarding three-quarters of the principles established in the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code. The wealth of information available and the systems in place related to the public sector’s execution of its budget, finances, and accounts allow for easy access by the population to an impressive volume of fiscal data. However, there is much room for improvement in the area of fiscal transparency. Establishing a new fiscal pact in which the medium-term fiscal targets are defined would help create fiscal predictability and ensure that the major challenges of social and economic development are met.

Notes: Also Available in Spanish

December 9, 2016

Sri Lanka: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

Description: This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion (PCs). Performance under the program has been largely satisfactory. All end-June quantitative PCs were met, together with all indicative targets for June. The structural benchmarks due in July–September were not met, but the authorities have been making progress toward their completion which is now scheduled for December 2016. In light of the progress so far and the authorities’ policy commitments going forward, the IMF staff supports the completion of the First Review under the EFF.

December 9, 2016

Chile: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile

Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that GDP growth in Chile has been weak, with activity slowing in October. However, conditions are in place for the economy to recover. After expanding by a moderate 1.7 percent in 2016, growth is forecast to increase to 2 percent in 2017. Faster growth in main regional partners and more stable copper prices are expected to lift exports and investment. The recovery is, however, projected to be gradual, held back by slow wage and job growth and still low business confidence. The financial sector appears healthy. Banks’ profitability is declining, but capital buffers are adequate and nonperforming loan rates are low.

December 8, 2016

Namibia: Selected Issues

Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the impact of alternative fiscal consolidation strategies on Namibia’s growth. It uses a model developed at the IMF to gain insights on what would be a growth-friendly composition of the fiscal adjustment. The analysis suggests that a combined strategy of revenue and expenditure measures has lower negative effects on growth than a pure expenditure-based adjustment. Structural reforms improving the efficiency of public investment can further reduce the negative effect of consolidation on growth, and potentially strengthen growth. Overall, minimizing the negative impact of fiscal consolidation on growth requires combining revenue and expenditure measures, together with fiscal structural reforms.