Country Reports
2017
January 18, 2017
Arab Republic of Egypt: Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
Description: This paper discusses Egypt’s Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The EFF-supported program will help Egypt restore macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth. The risks to the program mainly emerge from the difficulties inherent in implementing a strong and wide-ranging reform program. Fiscal slippages could undermine the program’s debt sustainability objective. There is a risk that regional conflicts could intensify and domestic security conditions deteriorate, which could affect confidence, investment, and tourism. These risks are mitigated by the authorities’ commitment to the program. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the EFF arrangement.
January 17, 2017
Kuwait: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes budget financing options and their potential macro-financial implications for Kuwait. With large financial buffers and low debt, Kuwait has substantial room to finance the emerging fiscal deficits. The financing strategy should be underpinned by sound institutional and legal reforms and geared toward the development of the domestic debt markets. A balanced mix of asset drawdown and borrowing from a diversified investor base (nonresidents, domestic banks and nonbank financial institutions) would help mitigate negative implications for the economy and develop the corporate debt market.
January 17, 2017
Kuwait: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in the non-oil sector in Kuwait has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices. Nonhydrocarbon growth slowed from 5 percent to an estimated 3.5 percent in 2015, as higher uncertainty weighed on consumption. Labor market reforms and efforts to promote the role of the private sector are important to foster diversification and boost job creation for nationals. Better aligning labor market incentives is necessary to encourage nationals to take on private sector jobs and private firms to create opportunities for them.
January 13, 2017
Republic of Estonia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Estonia’s recent growth has been subdued. Labor productivity and external competitiveness have weakened. Growth in 2016 is estimated at only 1.3 percent, driven mainly by private consumption on the back of strong wage growth in a tightening labor market. Exports are gradually recovering, but investment continues to contract. Import growth is accordingly low, keeping the current account in small surplus. Inflation rose moderately to about 1 percent. The economy should gradually strengthen going forward, as the external environment improves and existing pro-growth policies come to fruition. Growth is projected at 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent for 2017 and 2018, respectively.
January 13, 2017
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of fast unit labor cost (ULC) growth in Estonia. ULCs in Estonia have now reached a level at which further unmitigated wage growth risks material damage to competitiveness and income convergence prospects with western Europe. This highlights the importance of making Estonia’s pro-productivity policies a success, but in the nearer term the onus is on mitigating excessive wage growth because in this area, Estonia, together with the other Baltics, distinguishes itself from the rest of central and eastern Europe. Tax policy can provide short-term relief.
January 12, 2017
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that with a soft global trade environment and a downturn in tourism arrivals from Mainland China, the growth rate of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is expected to have slowed to 1.5 percent in 2016. Growth is likely to pick up modestly to about 2 percent in 2017, with private consumption continuing to be a main driver supported by a steady labor market. The current account surplus remained below 3 percent of GDP. Over the longer term, aging pressures may weaken the structural fiscal position, requiring fiscal planning to alleviate the decline, and a housing supply shortage also needs to be tackled.
January 12, 2017
Central African Republic: First Review of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Financing Assurances Review and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion
Description: This paper discusses Central African Republic’s First Review of the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Financing Assurances Review and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PCs). Program implementation through the end of August has been satisfactory. All quantitative and indicative targets were met, with the exception of the criterion on nonaccumulation of external payments for which the authorities are taking corrective measures. Improvement in tax revenue, albeit in line with the program target, remains fragile. The IMF staff supports completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement and the authorities’ request for a waiver for the nonobservance of a PC. The IMF staff also recommends that the financing assurances review be completed.
January 12, 2017
People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) banks’ exposure to nonbanking businesses in Mainland China. Hong Kong SAR banks are generally less exposed to riskier Mainland businesses. Despite that, a sharp deterioration in the balance sheet of Mainland businesses, as well as a sharper-than-expected downturn in the Mainland economy could negatively affect Hong Kong SAR banks, raising debt at risk well above suggested estimates. As Hong Kong SAR banks generally have sizable buffers against downside risks, the best approach to such a scenario is vigilance, including maintaining high origination and underwriting standards.
January 12, 2017
United Republic of Tanzania: United Republic of Tanzania: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Tanzania’s Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Tanzania’s macroeconomic performance remains strong. Economic growth was robust during the first half of 2016. Inflation came down below the authorities’ target of 5 percent and is expected to remain close to the target, while the external current account deficit was revised down on account of lower imports of capital goods. Nevertheless, there are risks that could adversely affect economic growth going forward, emerging from the currently tight stance of macroeconomic policies, slow implementation of public investment, and private sector uncertainty about the government’s new economic strategies. The IMF staff recommends completion of the fifth review under the PSI.
January 11, 2017
Finland: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Contingency Planning and Crisis Management
Description: This Technical Note discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Finland in the area of contingency planning and crisis management (CPCM). Finland’s CPCM framework rests on a strong foundation. In addition to the new European Union framework, Finland can build on a cooperative culture among its financial oversight agencies, which can help in times of crisis. Furthermore, the Finnish financial oversight architecture ensures the functional separation of potentially conflicting CPCM responsibilities: supervision, resolution, and emergency liquidity support. The clear separation of functions also helps crisis preparedness. Moreover, Finland also has a strong tradition of testing systemwide operational risks.