Country Reports
2017
February 2, 2017
Myanmar: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the strategy and priorities for reform in Myanmar’s financial sector. The IMF helped design and implement a foreign currency auction by the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM), as a first step to develop foreign currency price discovery and replace a heavily regulated formal market segmented from informal markets, with the ultimate objective of creating a unified market. Key achievements have included new legislation to establish an autonomous CBM with clearer authority for licensing, supervision and regulation of banks, and monetary policy, in line with a new mandate for price and financial stability. Significant progress has also been made in bank supervision.
February 1, 2017
Uruguay: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay is demonstrating resilience in the face of recessions in its large neighbors. The economic slowdown has bottomed out in 2016 and there are signs that the economy is on an incipient recovery path. Financial stability risks are limited. Nonperforming loans remain relatively low, at 3.5 percent of total loans, while provisions are high. Real growth is estimated at 1.2 percent in 2016 and projected to reach 1.4 percent in 2017, as the external environment strengthens, together with private consumption.
February 1, 2017
Uruguay: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents an overview of inter-sectoral exposures in Uruguay. The Uruguayan financial system has been characterized by solid balance sheets, a low level of credit, and continued high dollarization since the crisis in 2002. However, pockets of vulnerability remain, especially after the recent slowdown in economic growth. Nonfinancial public sector (NFPS) gross debt is fairly high at 48 percent of GDP. The NFPS as well as the public sector as a whole have a net open foreign currency position. The nonbank financial system also has a large exposure to government debt.
January 30, 2017
Papua New Guinea: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Papua New Guinea is facing headwinds stemming from low commodity prices and is recovering from a major drought; these factors have weighed on economic growth, weakened the external position, and created fiscal challenges. Foreign exchange (FX) remains in short supply, but inflows have recently picked up somewhat. Near-term risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, as fiscal retrenchment may have a greater impact on the economy than currently expected and the limited availability of FX continues to constrain imports and economic activity. A further drop in commodity prices would weaken the external and fiscal positions.
January 30, 2017
Spain: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Spain
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Spain’s economy has continued its recovery. Real GDP expanded by 3.2 percent in 2015 with the same growth rate expected for 2016, despite a prolonged period of domestic political uncertainty. Nearly 1.1 million jobs were created over the past two years. The rebound in private consumption, exports, and investment, aided by past reforms, has remained the main driver of growth. The current account is projected to record its fourth consecutive annual surplus. Private sector balance sheets have further strengthened, while public debt remains high at about 100 percent of GDP. Real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 2.3 percent in 2017.
January 30, 2017
Spain: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the drivers of firm productivity growth in Spain. Spain’s weak productivity performance has been linked to the dominance of many low-productivity small firms and inefficient allocation of resources. The biggest gain can be expected from lowering regulatory barriers to competition and the cost of doing business, including at the regional level. Further improving the access to equity and credit financing, in particular for innovative start-up companies, and addressing potential disincentive effects of size-contingent rules, can also make important contributions to raising productivity growth. Supporting innovation through increasing the efficiency of Research and Development (R&D) incentives and enhancing the private R&D investment should generate positive spillovers, which are difficult to capture empirically.
January 24, 2017
Lebanon: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper discusses findings of the assessment of Lebanon’s financial system. Lebanon has maintained financial stability for the last quarter century during repeated shocks and challenges. Over time, macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities have accumulated. Although central bank policies have helped to maintain confidence, fiscal adjustment is needed to reduce risks to financial stability. The banking system has thus far proven resilient to domestic shocks and regional turmoil, but the materialization of severe shocks could expose vulnerabilities. Significant progress has been made to further strengthen Lebanon’s financial integrity framework, with some scope for improvement remaining.
January 24, 2017
Lebanon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon’s economy. Output growth in Lebanon has fallen sharply since the onset of the Syrian crisis and is too low to accommodate new job seekers, or to address the needs of Lebanon’s more vulnerable population. Moreover, low growth is taking a toll on public debt dynamics, raising the prospect of higher borrowing costs and constrained social and investment spending—both are much needed to improve the quality of public spending and direct it toward more useful and productive uses. The authorities have presented an ambitious proposal to the international community, which centers on a multiyear effort to stimulate growth and employment through a targeted series of investment initiatives.
January 24, 2017
Lebanon: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Lebanon’s economic growth remains subdued. Following a sharp drop in 2011, growth edged upward briefly to 2–3 percent, but has now slowed again. The IMF staff estimates that GDP increased by 1 percent in 2015, and a similar growth rate in 2016 is projected. Lebanon’s traditional growth drivers—tourism, real estate, and construction—have received a significant blow and a strong rebound is unlikely based on current trends. In the absence of a turnaround in confidence, or a resolution of the Syrian conflict, growth is unlikely to return to potential (4 percent) soon.
January 18, 2017
Republic of Poland: Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director and Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
Description: This paper discusses Poland’s Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The FCL arrangements since 2009 have served Poland well, providing valuable insurance against external shocks. With the support of the consecutive FCL arrangements, Poland has weathered bouts of market turbulence well, and remains an attractive investment destination. The authorities intend to continue treating the FCL as precautionary and consider it a temporary supplement to reserves. In IMF staff’s view, Poland continues to meet the qualification criteria for continued access to the FCL.