Country Reports
2017
February 3, 2017
Ireland: 2016 Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report for Ireland
Description: This paper highlights the main points of 2016 Sixth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Ireland. Ireland continued to grow at a healthy pace in 2016, mainly driven by domestic demand. The current account surplus widened somewhat in the first three quarters of 2016. Exchequer data for December confirmed the positive trend in public finances. The headline general government deficit is expected to end the year on target at 0.9 percent of GDP, while the debt burden is on a steady downward path. Balance sheet repair of domestic banks has continued but profitability remains weak. Property market conditions have tightened further, mainly owing to a limited supply response.
February 3, 2017
Turkey: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Turkey has slowed following a strong performance in 2015. Investment is weak amid heightened uncertainty and a sharp deceleration of credit growth. Inflation has moderated but is still well above target. The current account deficit remains sizeable, as the decline in tourism offsets savings from low energy prices. Progress on structural reforms has been slow. Over the medium term, growth is projected to firm at about 3.5 percent. Inflation is expected to stay above target and the current account deficit to remain sizeable.
February 3, 2017
Turkey: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the new private pension automatic enrollment provisions in Turkey. The newly enacted automatic enrollment provisions have several advantages relative to the current voluntary private pension system. However, they have several weaknesses that risk endangering the reform in the long term. The hybrid input-output is not complete without the establishment of a public procurement board and periodic auctioning of pension services. Employers are unlikely to be more skilled than individuals in choosing pension plans for their workers. The IMF staff advice is to complete the hybrid input-output model along the lines recommended by the World Bank by establishing a procurement board for pension services for undecided participants.
February 3, 2017
Morocco: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Morocco’s macroeconomic conditions have improved since 2012, but growth has remained sluggish. In 2016, growth slowed owing to a sharp contraction in agricultural output and subdued nonagricultural activity. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2016 while youth unemployment remains high at 21.8 percent. Morocco’s medium-term prospects are favorable, with growth expected to rebound to 4.4 percent in 2017 and reach 4.5 percent by 2021. However, risks remain substantial, and relate mainly to growth in advanced and emerging market economies, geopolitical tensions in the region, world energy prices, and global financial market volatility.
February 3, 2017
Turkey: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This report discusses the findings and recommendations made in the Financial Sector Assessment Program for Turkey in the area of financial system stability. The assessment identified some important priorities for further improvement in the policy framework and in implementation. Steps are recommended to raise the effectiveness of financial supervision, enhance governance arrangements, strengthen systemic risk identification and the coordination of macroprudential policies, lower systemic liquidity risks, and address current gaps in crisis management arrangements. A stronger role for the Financial Stability Committee would support more coordinated and effective systemic risk oversight and management.
February 3, 2017
Indonesia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Indonesia has maintained macroeconomic stability, while adjusting well to recent shifts in the external environment. A prudent mix of macroeconomic policies and the launch of structural reforms have helped the economy weather slow global growth, the commodity down cycle, and several episodes of financial turbulence affecting emerging market economies. Growth in 2016 is projected at 5 percent on account of robust private consumption. In 2017, growth is expected to rise modestly to 5.1 percent, led by a gradual pickup in private investment in response to stronger commodity prices, low interest rates, and a recovery in external demand on the back of a pickup in global growth and trade.
February 2, 2017
Austria: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report for Austria
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Austria has strengthened in 2016. GDP growth in 2016 is estimated at 1.4 percent, an improvement over the average growth of 0.6 percent in 2012–15. Growth has been broad-based, driven by private consumption supported by income tax cuts, a recovery in investment, and higher public consumption owing to spending on refugees. Employment growth has picked up as well. The outlook for 2017 appears similarly robust, while in the medium term growth would decline toward its potential rate, which IMF staff estimate at slightly higher than 1 percent. Risks to the outlook are mainly external, with limited likely impact overall.
February 2, 2017
Austria: Austria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses structural and fiscal reforms in Austria that could increase potential output. Structural measures focused on further liberalization of professional services, and lowering of the barriers to trade and investment to increase potential output. Although Austria is among the countries with least restrictive business environment, there is a room for further improvement. The policy recommendations focus mostly on startups, professional services (legal, accounting, architecture, and engineering professions), competition in network industries, and barriers to foreign direct investment, resulting in an estimated impact of roughly 1.5 percent of GDP in the medium term.
February 2, 2017
Myanmar: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy grew broadly as expected in FY2015/16, at a healthy pace of 7.3 percent, despite massive floods during July–September 2015. Activity softened during the first half of FY2016/17, but is expected to recover in the second half on account of the resumption of construction in Yangon after a temporary halt for regulatory compliance purposes. The growth of agricultural production was softer than expected. The external environment has been weak owing to slowing demand from major trading partners and significant natural gas and other commodity price declines in 2015 and 2016. Macroeconomic imbalances persist, with continuing inflation pressure, an increased fiscal deficit, and a widening external current account deficit.
February 2, 2017
Kenya: First Review Under the Twenty-Four Month Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility and Requests for Waivers of Applicability, Rephasing of Disbursements, and Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
Description: This paper discusses Kenya’s First Reviews Under the Twenty-Four Month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility and Requests for Waivers of Applicability, Rephasing of Disbursements, and Modification of Performance Criterion (PC). Macroeconomic developments have been broadly in line with the program, including strong growth and lower current account deficits. On fiscal policy, revenue shortfalls in FY2015/16 were more than offset by under-execution of public investment. The IMF staff recommends completion of the first reviews and supports the authorities’ requests for waivers of applicability for SBA for end-December 2016 PC, rephasing of disbursements, and modification of PC.