Country Reports
2017
February 24, 2017
Niger: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the external stability of Niger. Niger’s real effective exchange rate has been depreciating recently, echoing fluctuations of the euro against the US dollar. A model-based analysis of Niger’s external sector suggests that the real effective exchange rate is broadly in line with macroeconomic fundamentals, which is also consistent with the findings of the 2014 external sector assessment. However, broader competitiveness indicators are worrisome, despite some improvement noted in recent years. The recent depreciation of the naira also suggests some weakening in competitiveness, at least with Nigeria.
February 22, 2017
India: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights strong growth recorded by the Indian economy in recent years helped by a large terms-of-trade gain and positive policy actions. Inflation has remained low following the collapse in global commodity prices, a range of supply-side measures, and a relatively tight monetary stance. Fiscal consolidation at the Union Government level resumed in FY2016/17 and has been complemented by measures to enhance the quality of public spending. Growth is projected to slow to 6.6 percent in FY2016/17 and then rebound to 7.2 percent in FY2017/18, owing to temporary disruptions, primarily to private consumption, caused by cash shortages.
February 22, 2017
India: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper evaluates corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India. The analysis shows that while corporate sector risks have subsided, debt repayment capacity remains strained, and high leverage continues to weigh on corporate resilience, which may pose further risks to banks’ asset quality. Public sector banks have stepped up recognition of nonperforming assets, but their debt recovery capacity remains weak. Simulations suggest that potential recapitalization needs, at current provisioning levels, should have a modest fiscal impact.
February 22, 2017
Portugal: Fifth Post Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
Description: The Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Portugal highlight a welcome upturn in growth in the second half of 2016 after a sluggish first half, boosted by stronger exports and a further decline in unemployment to precrisis levels. These developments point to an improved near-term outlook, but medium-term growth could be put on a more sustainable footing by reducing structural bottlenecks and high levels of corporate debt. The revised 2016 fiscal target appears likely to have been met, but prospective public outlays for banking sector recapitalization continue to weigh on public debt trends.
February 21, 2017
Seychelles: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: This paper discusses Seychelles’ Fourth and Fifth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification and Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria. All performance criteria as of December 31, 2015, and June 30, 2016, were met, and the macroeconomic program remains broadly on track for the second half of the year. The structural agenda is proceeding, albeit with some technical delays. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to the goal of a steady reduction in public debt over the medium term reflected in the draft 2017 budget.
February 21, 2017
Malta: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malta
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights an estimated nearly 4.1 percent expansion in Malta’s output in 2016, following average growth of nearly 8 percent in 2014–15, supported by strong domestic demand. Robust job creation drove unemployment to record lows, despite a rising supply of labor, while subdued wage pressures contributed to low inflation. The external position remains strong, with sizable exports of services keeping the current account in surplus. The outlook is favorable, though growth is set to moderate to 3.4 percent in 2017 and converge to its potential of about 3 percent over the medium term following a projected weaker impetus from domestic demand.
February 21, 2017
Malta: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the vulnerability of firms in Malta and investigates the effect of their balance sheets on investment in innovation. The results indicate that, while the financial health of medium and large firms has improved in recent years, vulnerabilities remain in the construction sector and for small and medium enterprises. Firms with weaker balance sheets tend to invest less in innovation, even during good times. Policy implications call for (1) accelerating the restructuring of corporate balance sheets of highly leveraged but viable firms, (2) improving the insolvency framework to allow a fast exit of nonviable companies, and (3) expanding corporate funding options for small and medium enterprises, including via nonbank financing alternatives.
February 15, 2017
Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People's Democratic Republic
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Lao People’s Democratic Republic is expected to moderate from 7.5 percent in 2015 to 7 percent in 2016. Domestic activity has slowed following a less favorable external environment, and credit growth has also moderated from a high level. As growth continues to moderate in the near-term, inflation is projected to remain in low single digits. The current account deficit is projected to widen to about 19 percent of GDP in 2017 owing to the execution of large infrastructure projects with foreign direct investment.
February 14, 2017
People's Republic of China-Macao Special Administrative Region: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real output for Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) is expected to contract for a third consecutive year in 2016. However, external demand has begun to recover with gaming revenues posting six consecutive months of positive annual growth. In 2017, a low base will help increase growth above 2 percent despite continued weak domestic demand. Further out, Macao SAR is well-positioned to record sustainable growth in the mid-single digits. In addition to its still highly valuable gaming monopoly within China, Macao SAR is an established tourist destination with significant geographic proximity to Mainland China. Macao SAR is now also investing aggressively in non-gaming tourism and financial services.
February 10, 2017
Indonesia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the capital inflows to Indonesia since the global financial crisis. Capital inflows to Indonesia have increased since the crisis. Their average volume increased from 3.25 percent of GDP in 2005–09 to 4.50 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2016. From the global perspective, driven by the liquidity released from the systemic economies’ unconventional monetary policies, a global search for yields has led to large capital inflows to emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), especially portfolio inflows. Although many EMDEs experienced a steady decline in capital inflows during 2013–16, capital inflows to Indonesia increased and reached a peak in late 2014, and then started to decline but remained at relatively high levels from the first quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016.