Country Reports
2017
March 31, 2017
St. Lucia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights St. Lucia’s GDP growth, estimated to have reached 0.8 percent in 2016, down from 1.8 percent in 2015. Strong employment growth in agriculture and construction put a dent in unemployment, which declined to 20 percent in the third quarter of 2016. Youth unemployment also fell, but remains very high at 41 percent. GDP is projected to grow at 0.5 percent in 2017, driven mostly by continued strong performance in construction and agriculture. Higher import prices, including for oil, will cause inflation to rise temporarily and, together with weak tourism expenditures, will contribute to wider external imbalances.
March 28, 2017
Israel: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Israel
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the sound economic growth enjoyed by Israel, estimated at 4 percent in 2016 and supported by strong domestic demand and an export rebound. Unemployment declined to 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, and wage increases have picked up. Nonetheless, inflation remained below the 1–3 percent target range of the Bank of Israel, reflecting external factors and government measures to reduce the cost of living. Israel’s near-term economic outlook is positive. Growth is expected to settle at about 3 percent, and inflation is likely to rise gradually, although with significant uncertainty around the timing of such a rise.
March 27, 2017
Nepal: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the rebound of Nepal’s economy following a slowdown caused by the 2015 earthquakes and trade disruptions at the southern border. The growth of real GDP at market prices slowed to 0.6 percent in 2015/16 (mid-July 2015 to mid-July 2016). Due to trade disruption, shortages of fuel and other essential goods drove up inflation to 12 percent (year over year) in January 2016, but it eased subsequently to 3.2 percent in January 2017, mainly because of lower food prices. Growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2016/17, and inflation is expected to undershoot the central bank’s mid-2017 target of 7.5 percent.
March 23, 2017
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper uses the case of the Slovak Republic to investigate how European Union (EU) countries can make optimal use of EU funds to reduce regional disparities. The findings suggest that high-quality government and a more educated population lead to better absorption of EU funds. There is also evidence that absorption increases when spending is more decentralized. Regions with a sufficient level of human capital and adequate institutions are more likely to spend the allocated funds efficiently and to experience growth as a result. With appropriate administrative and governance capacities, fighting corruption should therefore be the priority to speed absorption and allow for higher-quality projects.
March 23, 2017
Slovak Republic: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex for Slovak Republic
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights projected moderate 2016 real GDP growth in the Slovak Republic, but still at a robust 3.3 percent. Growth continues to benefit from an improving labor market, low inflation, and strong household credit growth. The output gap is now closed. Fiscal consolidation resumed in 2016, and the fiscal deficit is estimated to have narrowed to 2 percent of GDP. The outlook is favorable, with growth expected to peak at 3.9 percent in 2019 and settle at about 3.5 percent thereafter, reflecting greater export capacity as a result of investment in the automotive industry.
March 23, 2017
South Sudan: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Sudan
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights the rapid deterioration of economic conditions in South Sudan since the beginning of the civil conflict in late 2013. Real GDP growth declined by nearly 20 percent during 2015 and 2016, and annual inflation rose to about 550 percent in September 2016 before declining to 370 percent in January 2017. The medium-term outlook faces challenges and significant downside risks. Without significant progress toward peace and economic stabilization, the economic trajectory for South Sudan is highly unstable, and the country risks spiraling into a trap of deteriorating economic performance and worsening security with continued high humanitarian costs.
March 17, 2017
Republic of Kosovo: Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Program Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo
Description: This paper discusses Kosovo’s Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-by Arrangement, and Request for Program Extension. Economic performance remains positive, with growth estimated at 3.5 percent in 2016 and projected at similar levels in 2017. Fiscal deficits remain contained, with strong tax revenues limiting the impact from rising pensions for war veterans. All performance criteria and indicative targets for December 2015 and June 2016 were met with comfortable margins. Given this progress, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews.
March 17, 2017
Belgium: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper explores key features of Belgium’s corporate income tax (CIT) regime as background for potential growth-enhancing reform options that also safeguard revenues and limit distortions. Comprehensive reform of business and investment income taxation in Belgium is both promising and challenging. The challenge arises from the need for fiscal consolidation and the limited scope for shifting the tax burden away from the CIT to other taxes. The absence of capital gains taxation undermines tax neutrality between different forms of businesses, leading to organizational inefficiencies and a misallocation of capital. Overall, there appears to be scope for a broader reform that could raise Belgium’s growth potential without undermining fiscal revenues.
March 17, 2017
Belgium: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Belgium’s recovery, which is expected to strengthen modestly in 2017, with real GDP projected at 1.6 percent. The medium-term outlook remains constrained by structurally weak growth in advanced economies. Downside risks are significant, including those related to global and regional uncertainties that could affect trade and financial markets. Fiscal sustainability therefore remains tenuous and sensitive to potential shocks. Although private employment has been recovering, there is entrenched high unemployment and inactivity among certain groups, including the young, those with few skills, and immigrants from outside the European Union.
March 15, 2017
Paraguay: Technical Assistance Report-Establishing a Structural Balance Rule and a Public Debt Objective
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to establish a structural balance rule and a public debt objective in Paraguay. The analysis suggests that the authorities’ structural balance formula should be more conservative and—to mitigate the risk of unwarranted expenditure growth—should assume that future structural revenues will grow at the same pace as trend GDP. Under this assumption, the structural balance rule is broadly equivalent to an expenditure rule, constraining spending to grow at trend GDP—a formula that is simpler to implement and easier to communicate to the public. Moreover, the formula should account for new revenue measures more explicitly, provided there are safeguards to ensure that they are estimated fairly.