Country Reports
2017
April 6, 2017
Republic of San Marino: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of San Marino
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the slow recovery of San Marino’s economy after a deep recession following a series of financial sector shocks. Growth resumed in 2015 and accelerated in 2016 to an estimated 1 percent, thanks to stronger domestic and external demand. Moderate growth is expected in the near and medium term. GDP growth is projected to reach 1.3 percent in the medium term, driven by continued expansion in nonfinancial industries and services. However, following the current trend, the pace of growth would not be strong enough to bring output to precrisis levels over the next five years as risks remain tilted to the downside.
April 6, 2017
Djibouti: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Djibouti
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Djibouti’s expansion of its transportation and utilities infrastructure to leverage its strategic location as a shipping hub and host to military bases. The authorities’ development strategy, Vision Djibouti 2035, aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy and a logistics and commercial hub for all of eastern Africa. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.5 percent in 2016, driven by major public sector projects: the railroad to Ethiopia, the construction of several new ports, and a water pipeline from Ethiopia. Inflation rose to 3 percent on average in 2016, reflecting increased food and service prices.
April 5, 2017
Nigeria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the role of lower oil prices in the recent deterioration in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators, the impact on corporate and financial sector performance. and the forward-looking aspects of promoting job-intensive growth and strengthening state and local government finances. Although the slump in oil prices contributed to sluggish growth, the lack of foreign exchange weakened corporate performance, setting the stage for nonperforming loans. Structural reforms to improve the business environment can have a positive impact on growth, while fiscal reforms would help strengthen finances of subnational governments.
April 5, 2017
Nigeria: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights low oil prices’ and falling oil production’s blow to the Nigerian economy. The country entered a recession in 2016, with growth contracting by 1.5 percent. Annual inflation doubled to 18.6 percent, reflecting higher electricity costs and fuel tariffs, a weaker naira, and accommodating monetary conditions. Even with significantly lower capital spending, the consolidated fiscal deficit increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016. Under unchanged policies, the outlook remains challenging and growth would pick up only slightly to 0.8 percent in 2017, mostly reflecting some recovery in oil production and a continuing strong performance in agriculture.
April 4, 2017
Ukraine: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
April 4, 2017
Ukraine: 2016 Article IV Consultation and third review under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Non-Observance of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation shows that following a severe crisis in 2014–15, the economy of Ukraine is growing again. The flexible exchange rate and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. The current account deficit fell sharply, from more than 9 percent of GDP in 2013 to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2016. The overall fiscal deficit declined to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2016. Growth will remain at 2 percent in 2017 due to the impact of the blockade in the eastern part of Ukraine, but is expected to reach 3 percent in 2018 as the economy adjusts and about 3.5–4.0 percent over the medium term.
April 3, 2017
Republic of Nauru: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Nauru
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Nauru’s growth and a substantial improvement in government revenue in recent years thanks to processing of asylum seekers by the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC), fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. In the near term, GDP growth is projected to be moderate at 4 percent in fiscal year 2017 (ending June 30) mainly due to a slowdown in phosphate exports and limited expansion of the RPC. The medium-term outlook is vulnerable to scaling down of the RPC following the expected transfer of refugees to other countries, which will produce a substantial decline in RPC revenue.
April 3, 2017
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper presents an assessment of financial system stability in the Netherlands. The country is home to a global systemically important bank and a global systemically important insurer. The banking system comprises half of the financial sector and is concentrated in four domestic banks. Major reforms, driven by the European Union and global developments, have significantly strengthened financial sector oversight. The authorities’ response to the global financial crisis was far-reaching and addressed many deficiencies. The Single Supervisory Mechanism has enhanced bank supervision, as have strengthened capital and liquidity regulations. Insurance supervision is also stricter thanks to Solvency II, and there is a new framework for the pension sector.
April 3, 2017
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on a steady increase in current account surpluses in ”Surplus 3” countries—Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland—since the mid-1990s. In Germany and the Netherlands, nonfinancial corporations seem to be behind the rising surpluses. In these countries, increasing corporate profits have not been converted into dividends, keeping a lid on consumption. In Switzerland, household savings seem to explain the bulk of the current account surplus: both mandatory and voluntary savings have been on an increasing trend since 2000. Trending net contributions to pension funds since 2000 and rising equity contribution for housing purchases are likely drivers.
April 3, 2017
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights broad-based economic recovery in the Netherlands, which has been gathering speed. Real growth is forecast to reach 2.1 percent in 2016 owing to strong consumption and investment, reflecting improving confidence and rising housing prices, while net exports are expected to slow as a result of weak external demand. Unemployment has been rapidly declining against the backdrop of an increasing labor supply. The economy is expected to keep its momentum in the coming years. Domestic consumption and investment are forecast to remain the main drivers of growth, prompting a gradual decline in the current account surplus. Inflation is expected to pick up along with the closing of the output gap.