Country Reports
2017
May 15, 2017
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.
May 15, 2017
Samoa: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Samoa
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Samoa’s continued good economic performance. Economic activity picked up during 2015/16 driven by tourism arrivals, lower fuel prices, and new fish processing facilities, further boosted by two major sporting events and infrastructure projects. Although the pace will moderate in 2017/18 and in 2018/19 with the closure of a large manufacturing plant, growth is expected to remain buoyant. The outlook is moderately positive though subject to downside risks related to Samoa’s vulnerability to natural disasters, elevated contingent liabilities, and withdrawal of correspondent banking relationships. Given Samoa’s reliance on workers’ remittances, the closure of bank accounts of money transfer operators heightens the risk of a disruption to remittance payments.
May 12, 2017
Hungary: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Hungary
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Hungary’s several consecutive years of high growth and debt reduction. The pickup in growth was supported by high use of EU funds, a favorable external environment, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. However, despite robust private sector consumption, GDP growth temporarily slowed in 2016 to an estimated 2 percent, mainly because of a decline in investment. Output growth is projected to accelerate to about 2.9 percent in 2017. The recovery in EU funds disbursement and related investment, together with planned projects in the automotive industry, will be the main drivers of growth.
May 12, 2017
Hungary: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper reviews the relationship between real GDP growth and domestic bank lending to the private sector in Hungary after the global financial crisis, It draws on a cross-country analysis of European countries. The recessions that followed the crisis were deeper and lasted longer than the average recession. Hungary, like some other countries, experienced a creditless recovery. Although it is difficult to disentangle the causes, this analysis concludes that (1) both credit demand and supply were hurt by the crisis; (2) key factors influencing credit developments include loan quality, deposit funding, and bank capital, as well as the macroeconomic environment; and (3) lending by Hungarian banks to the private sector finally seems to be picking up.
May 12, 2017
New Zealand: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Detailed Assessment of Observance-Insurance Core Principles
Description: This paper presents an assessment of the Observance of Insurance Core Principles in New Zealand. Observance of these principles in New Zealand falls significantly short. In some areas, the implementation of initiatives that would improve observance is incomplete. Supervisory risk assessment and enhancement of regulatory reporting by insurers are limited, which compromises effective off-site supervision, macroprudential analysis, and publication of aggregate information on the market. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand should focus in regulation and supervisory work on setting standards on corporate governance, risk management, and internal controls. It should assess risk in these areas to promote the effectiveness of insurers’ governance.
May 10, 2017
Luxembourg: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper studies diversification in Luxembourg’s economy and the role of the government. The economy of Luxembourg appears to be more concentrated than that of comparable countries. Sectoral output is more concentrated than in other countries; this relative lack of diversification is true even when the financial sector is excluded and even compared with other European countries with a small population. However, employment concentration is similar to that in other countries. Luxembourg specializes in sectors whose labor productivity is somewhat higher than in several benchmark countries. The government should continue to further diversify the economy by fostering an environment for growth.
May 10, 2017
Luxembourg: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Luxembourg
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Luxembourg’s strong growth supported by the competitive advantages of fiscal stability, a qualified workforce, and business-friendly regulations and oversight. Economic growth reached 4.2 percent in 2016, well above the EU, and was driven by net exports of financial services. Growth is projected at 3.8 percent in 2017, with continued strong job creation and a pickup in inflation. Growth prospects are good but subject to downside risks, including a retreat from cross-border integration and policy uncertainty in the United States and related to Brexit and coming elections in Europe. These could result in financial market volatility affecting the financial system.
May 10, 2017
New Zealand: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Regulation and Oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures
Description: This Technical Note assesses regulation and oversight of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) in New Zealand. The regulatory and oversight framework for FMIs in New Zealand is undergoing a major reform. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) currently lack sufficient legal powers to identify and address risks building up in FMIs, partly because the regime is voluntary and the authorities do not have the appropriate toolkit to pursue their oversight objectives. It is recommended that supervisory practices be formalized and staff resources increased. The role of the FMA should be further clarified.
May 10, 2017
New Zealand: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Macroprudential Institutional Framework and Policies
Description: This Technical Note assesses the macroprudential institutional framework and policies in New Zealand. New Zealand has a strong institutional framework for macroprudential policy. This framework is based on a clear mandate for financial stability operationally clarified by a memorandum of understanding. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the single prudential regulator with responsibility and authority for supervision of financial institutions and macroprudential policies. A clear mandate for financial stability, independent decision making, transparent communication, and external accountability form the basis of the strong framework that was put in place. Institutional arrangements could be strengthened further by making the procedures to adjust the macroprudential framework more transparent.
May 10, 2017
New Zealand: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking Sector and Systemic Risk Analysis
Description: This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of the banking sector and systemic risk analysis for New Zealand. The banking sector, which dominates the financial system, has significant exposure to real estate. A sharp decline in the real estate market, a prolonged period of low dairy prices, deterioration in global economic conditions, and a tightening in financial markets would adversely impact the system. Despite these risks, the banking system is resilient to severe shocks. Results of stress tests and sensitivity analysis indicate that the solvency and liquidity of the banking system can withstand adverse and severe shocks.