Country Reports
2017
May 25, 2017
Romania: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates a small open economy model that makes it possible to quantify the relative strength of the trade and financial channels in Hungary, Poland. and Romania. The Bayesian results indicate that both the trade and financial channels are strongest for Romania, possibly owing to the expansion of financial balance sheets and lower integration into global supply chains. For all countries, tighter domestic monetary conditions result in reduction of output and currency appreciation, although the magnitude of appreciation is less in Romania compared with peers. The trade channel is also dominant in the transmission of foreign monetary policy shocks, which result in output losses and currency depreciation.
May 25, 2017
Romania: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2013 Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Description: This paper discusses Romania’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2013 Stand-by Arrangement. Romania experienced strong economic growth in 2016, resulting in a closed output gap. Private consumption was boosted by an expansionary and procyclical fiscal policy and wage increases. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit grew by 1.5 percent of GDP in 2016, reflecting large tax rate cuts and wage increases. Growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017—supported by continued stimulus to private consumption from a new round of fiscal relaxation and wage increases—and to moderate to 3.5 percent in the medium term.
May 25, 2017
Uganda: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This paper evaluates the status of fiscal transparency in Uganda, where some key elements of fiscal transparency are in place. These have been augmented in recent years through a number of reforms. The Public Finance Management Act 2015 specifies the budget calendar, the main contents of budget documents, and the roles of the legislature and the executive in the budget process. There are some problems with the coverage, quality, and reliability of some information. Improving fiscal transparency will give the government a better understanding of the fiscal position and its exposure to fiscal risks, which will support effective fiscal and budget management in the face of these challenges.
May 23, 2017
Mexico: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Mexico’s Review under the Flexible Credit Line. Mexico’s very strong policies and policy frameworks have helped it navigate successfully a complex external environment characterized by the heightened risk of protectionism and financial market volatility. Inflation is above the central bank’s target, reflecting mainly the transitory effects of the liberalization of domestic fuel prices and the pass-through from the currency depreciation. Although the global environment and financial stability have improved somewhat recently, downside risks affecting Mexico remain elevated amid continued uncertainty about the outcome of the discussions with the United States on trade, as well as a possible renewed surge in capital flow volatility.
May 23, 2017
Grenada: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Grenada’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. The government met all continuous and end-December 2016 performance criteria and structural benchmarks. The economy grew by about 3.9 percent in 2016, reflecting continued strong construction activity and steady external demand for Grenada’s tourism services. The pace of restructuring of public debt has accelerated in recent months, and Grenada’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 83.4 percent at the end of 2016 from 108 percent in 2013. The IMF staff supports the completion of the Sixth Review under the ECF arrangement and the financing assurances review.
May 23, 2017
Bulgaria: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Description: This paper assesses the stability of the financial system in Bulgaria. Progress has been made in Bulgaria to strengthen supervision since the 2015 Basel Core Principles assessment, but more work and resources are needed. A more targeted strategy is needed to address high nonperforming loans (NPLs), which in Bulgaria’s banks stood at 13.7 percent of total loans as of June 2016—against the European Union–weighted average of 5.5 percent. Certain accounting, collateral valuation, and risk management practices have discouraged NPL reduction. Banks will also need to build provisions in preparation for the implementation of the forthcoming expected credit loss provisioning standards beginning in 2018.
May 17, 2017
Togo: 2016 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Togo
Description: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights the healthy rate of expansion in the economy of Togo in recent years. Growth was 5.2 percent in 2014–16. Inflation was well contained, explained by the lower food, energy, and transportation prices. Togo’s poverty rate declined from 61.7 percent in 2006 to 55.1 percent in 2015, though it remains geographically concentrated. Economic growth is expected to increase gradually in the medium term as the fiscal stance is put on a sustainable path. Growth is expected to pick up from 5 percent in 2016 to 5.6 by 2021, with the economy reaping the benefits of an improved transportation network and productivity gains in the agricultural sector.
May 17, 2017
Togo: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper provides an assessment of the redistributive impact of fiscal policies in Togo by estimating the impact of taxation and spending on household-level income inequality and poverty rates. Although the combination of direct taxes and subsidies is found to reduce inequality, it increases poverty rates, as the value of taxes paid by lower-income households outweighs the value of transfers they receive, increasing the share of the population living below the poverty line. These findings highlight the importance of targeting spending to lower-income households as the authorities progressively shift public spending from infrastructure to social expenditures.
May 15, 2017
Luxembourg: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper evaluates the stability of the financial system of Luxembourg. Financial soundness indicators for Luxembourg’s financial system, which plays a key role in the intermediation of financial capital, have remained relatively robust in recent years. Following rising asset prices and inflows, the investment fund industry has enjoyed strong growth in assets under management, while exposure to liquid assets has remained steady. An assessment of the financial system’s ability to withstand severe but plausible shocks suggests a good deal of resilience, albeit with some risks. Insurance stress test results indicate that strong initial levels of capital and low guaranteed product exposure offer insulation against market shocks.
May 15, 2017
Republic of Slovenia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Slovenia’s fourth year of steady economic recovery, following decisive measures to address a looming banking crisis in 2013. Output and employment have risen considerably. The external position has strengthened, reflecting robust exports and strong tourism. The financial system has substantially improved in the past few years. Rising domestic demand and continuing strong exports will support projected growth of about 3 percent in 2017. Over the medium term, economic growth will converge to the estimated potential GDP growth rate of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. Higher growth is possible if policies increase investment, reduce labor skills mismatches, and boost total factor productivity growth.