Country Reports
2017
June 5, 2017
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Afghanistan’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Program implementation has been satisfactory. All quantitative PCs and indicative targets were met. The authorities are planning to contract a limited amount of nonconcessional debt to finance an important infrastructure project and are seeking approval of a modification of the relevant PCs. They are also requesting modification of three PCs for June 2017. These were revised owing to updates of the macroeconomic framework and changes in methodology affecting monetary variables. The IMF staff supports completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement and the authorities’ request for a modification of PCs.
June 2, 2017
Kyrgyz Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses the Kyrgyz Republic’s Third Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Program conditionality has been broadly met. All end-June 2016 quantitative PCs and indicative targets have been met. All but two structural benchmarks were met. The review of subsidies was not completed on time owing to limited capacity. The authorities are requesting modification of PCs to reflect the revised macroeconomic outlook and the availability of the fourth disbursement on completion of the review. The IMF staff supports completing the third review of the authorities' program under the ECF arrangement.
June 1, 2017
Algeria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses options for financing future fiscal deficits in Algeria. Algeria needs to undertake sustained fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal sustainability. The authorities should consider borrowing both domestically and externally to finance future fiscal deficits. Increased government debt issuance would facilitate the development of domestic financial markets by creating a reliable yield curve that serves as a benchmark for private sector issuers. The authorities should consider external borrowing, which would not only mitigate crowding out effects but also strengthen international reserves, broaden the investor base, and raise awareness about Algeria’s economy.
June 1, 2017
Algeria: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Algeria
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Algeria’s continued challenges posed by lower oil prices. Overall economic activity was resilient, but growth in the nonhydrocarbon sector slowed to 2.9 percent in 2016, partly under the effects of spending cuts. Inflation increased from 4.8 percent in 2015 to 6.4 percent in 2016 and stood at 7.7 percent year over year in February 2017. Unemployment was 10.5 percent in September 2016 and remains particularly high among youth (26.7 percent) and women (20.0 percent). Despite fiscal consolidation in 2016, the fiscal and current account deficits remained large, and public debt increased, reflecting in part the assumption of government-guaranteed debt. International reserves, while still ample, have declined rapidly.
May 31, 2017
Thailand: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the Thai economy’s continued recovery in 2016. GDP growth reached 3.2 percent, driven mainly by exports of services and public investment. Amid subdued import growth and soaring tourism, the external current account strengthened further to 11.4 percent of GDP. Average headline inflation was 0.2 percent, below the tolerance band for the second year in a row, reflecting low energy prices and persistently weak core inflation. The recovery is expected to advance at a moderate pace in the near to medium term. Public investment should remain a key driver, rising over the next few years in line with the government’s infrastructure plans and crowding in private investment.
May 31, 2017
Thailand: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes factors that could bring inflation back to target in Thailand. The paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying parameters to gauge the quantitative role of (long-term) inflation trends, economic slack, and import price inflation in shaping inflation dynamics. The analysis reveals some important changes in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. It suggests that the impact of lower import prices was a major factor behind the decline in headline inflation in 2015, with low oil prices the largest contributor to inflation dynamics. Monetary policy easing, within a broader expansionary policy mix, should help bring inflation back to target.
May 31, 2017
Colombia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Colombia’s favorable outlook, underpinned by the peace agreement, structural tax reform, and the authorities’ infrastructure agenda. Economic activity will rebound slightly in 2017 as investment strengthens, boosted by reduced corporate taxation and confidence stemming from the peace agreement. Nontraditional exports are gaining steam thanks in part to ongoing efforts to reduce trade barriers, and this will help bring the current account deficit to its equilibrium level. Medium-term growth will be driven by economic diversification away from oil, which will benefit from the infrastructure agenda, and the peace agreement, which will improve competitiveness and regional development.
May 31, 2017
Colombia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the monetary policy stance and broad financial conditions in Colombia. It uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy to estimate the neutral rate. A financial conditions index is also constructed to assess overall financial conditions through three different transmission channels (credit, leverage, risk) of the financial sector to the state of the economy. Results reveal that both monetary policy and broad financial conditions in Colombia remained tight in 2016. The results also show that tighter financial conditions could have had a sizable impact on GDP growth.
May 31, 2017
Mongolia: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release: Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Mongolia’s promising longer-term prospects given its abundant natural resources. In recent years, however, the economy has faced substantial challenges, as external shocks and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have compounded structural weaknesses. Mongolia remains heavily exposed to external shocks, given its export profile, and a key challenge will be to avoid the boom-bust cycles of the past. The discussions with authorities have focused on improving the fiscal framework and strengthening policy discipline, complemented by structural reforms to boost diversification and competitiveness and by efforts to strengthen and better target the social safety net.
May 25, 2017
Romania: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Romania’s strong economic growth in 2016, resulting in a closed output gap. Private consumption was boosted by an expansionary and procyclical fiscal policy and wage increases. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit grew by 1.5 percent of GDP in 2016, reflecting large tax rate cuts and wage increases. Headline inflation remained subdued owing to indirect tax cuts, administrative price adjustments, and low euro area inflation and oil prices. There has been welcome progress in reducing banking sector nonperforming loans. Growth is expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017 and to moderate to 3.5 percent in the medium term.