Country Reports
2017
June 20, 2017
Seychelles: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses measures to enhance resilience to climate and natural disasters in Seychelles. Rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns, increasingly intense and frequent tropical cyclones, and massive coral bleaching are compounding economic and social risks in Seychelles. A policy mix focused on combining adaptation and mitigation strategies is ideal for Seychelles. Such policies should not only be aligned with Seychelles’ Nationally Determined Contribution, but also with the technical and financial capacity of the government. Experience from other small states suggests that small policy changes can still have a significant impact. To the extent adaptation and mitigation measures are inadequate, insurance policies and innovative financial instruments need to be exploited further.
June 20, 2017
Seychelles: Climate Change Policy Assessment
Description: This paper takes stock of Seychelles’ plans to manage climate change, from the perspective of its macroeconomic implications. It suggests macro-relevant reforms that could strengthen the plans’ likelihood of success. It highlights high public awareness and a body of existing sustainable development planning, which puts Seychelles several steps ahead toward preparedness. Next steps would be to ensure that climate change planning is integrated with the forthcoming National Development Plan. Disaster preparedness is a relatively strong point, but there is much still to be done—from improving warning systems to resilience building to contingency financing.
June 15, 2017
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Aruba: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Aruba’s recession, which began around mid-2015. Real GDP contracted by 0.5 and 0.2 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Weakness in activity was broad based in 2016. Domestic demand contracted by 3.0 percent. Exports grew only 0.3 percent owing to weak tourism and shrinking nontourism exports. Imports contracted by 3.5 percent, reflecting weak demand on the back of fiscal consolidation and weak tourism growth. Monetary policy was unchanged during 2015–16. The banking system remains resilient. Banks maintain elevated capital buffers, have relatively low nonperforming loans, and are profitable.
June 14, 2017
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2017 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses key points of 2017 Discussions on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Favorable external conditions continue to support economic recovery in the ECCU, but flat tourism receipts and falling revenues from citizenship programs have weakened growth. The fiscal position has deteriorated slightly, and public debt remains high. Despite progress on financial sector reform, bank lending continues to decline while indigenous banks’ profitability is adversely impacted by increasing costs to secure correspondent banking relationships. The short-term outlook is favorable and risks are broadly balanced, but strong structural policies are needed to address impediments to medium-term growth.
June 14, 2017
Multi-Country Report: Building Fiscal Capacity in Fragile States-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This report reviews the IMF’s effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs Department in collaboration with the Legal Department, in countries including Afghanistan, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste. The details in the case studies in various areas of fiscal policy management shed light on country-specific characteristics, how well IMF TA helped countries address fiscal capacity in the past, and lessons learned that could improve TA strategies and delivery in the future.
June 14, 2017
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes productivity in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union by exploring two complementary exercises. It computes total factor productivity by extending standard growth accounting frameworks with (1) the impact of natural disasters on the stock and productivity of physical capital; (2) human capital accumulation; and (3) the impact of out-migration on labor and human capital. The paper also analyzes labor productivity, including across economic sectors. The results indicate that the historical deceleration in growth was driven mostly by the declining contribution of total factor productivity, which resulted in stagnation in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Labor productivity measures show that labor is largely allocated in the sectors with relatively lower productivity.
June 12, 2017
Indonesia: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for Indonesia
Description: This paper assesses the stability of Indonesia’s financial system. Since the 2010 Financial Sector Assessment Program, Indonesia’s macroeconomic performance has been robust and the financial system has been stable. Systemic risk is low and the banking system appears generally resilient to severe shocks. Market-based indicators point to relatively low levels of systemic risk. Under severe stress-test scenarios, banks experience sizable credit losses, particularly from corporate exposures, but high capital levels and strong profitability help absorb most of these losses. Many banks face relatively small shortfalls in liquidity stress tests, including in foreign currency, and these appear manageable for Bank Indonesia.
June 8, 2017
Cyprus: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cyprus
Description: This paper discusses the First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with Cyprus. Cyprus’s economic recovery has continued to strengthen in the 15 months since it exited from the IMF-supported program. Economic growth has been broad based and reached a robust 2.8 percent in 2016, supporting a sharp drop in the unemployment rate. Excluding large one-off imports, the current account deficit continued to narrow and earlier gains in price competitiveness have been preserved. The fiscal primary surplus reached a sizable 2.3 percent of GDP in 2016, supported by reforms undertaken in previous years and improving cyclical conditions. Over the medium term, the pace of growth is expected to gradually ease to just over 2 percent.
June 8, 2017
Bangladesh: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights steady monetary policy management and fiscal discipline in Bangladesh, which have supported macroeconomic stability, allowing the economy to benefit from favorable external demand, high remittances, and low commodity prices. The result has been strong output growth, falling inflation, moderate public debt, and a rebuilding of external resilience. In fiscal year 2017, output growth is expected to remain close to 7 percent. Over the medium term, maintaining output growth of about 7 percent a year would require increased public and private investment, as well as reforms to support capital market development and improved investment efficiency.
June 7, 2017
Morocco: First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review under the Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). Morocco’s economic fundamentals and policy frameworks are sound. The country is implementing well-constructed policies and remains committed to maintaining such policies in the future. The September 2016 quantitative indicative targets (ITs) were met. The end-March 2017 fiscal deficit ITs were met, but the end-March 2017 reserves ITs were missed owing to the widening current account deficit since July 2016. The authorities have not drawn on the arrangement and continue to treat it as precautionary. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the first review under the PLL arrangement.