Country Reports
2017
June 26, 2017
Ireland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of income distribution and the welfare system in Ireland, with a focus on the crisis and postcrisis periods. Ireland’s flexible economy and strong social safety net helped mitigate the adverse effects of the property-driven crisis. Although economic conditions are improving rapidly, lifting employment, ongoing efforts are needed to address the lingering impact on those hardest hit, including the long-term unemployed and unemployed youth. Consistent efforts are needed to support sustainable and inclusive growth and meet ambitious social targets, including the reduction of consistent poverty to 2 percent by 2020.
June 26, 2017
Czech Republic: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Czech Republic
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the strong Czech economy. It grew by 2.4 percent in 2016, and unemployment is now the lowest in the European Union. Headline inflation is at the target, and external deflation pressure has faded. In addition, nominal incomes are growing solidly. Given momentum in the economy, real GDP growth is projected to increase to 3 percent in 2017, largely driven by domestic demand. Strong economic growth and better revenue collection mean a surplus of 0.4 percent of GDP is expected for 2017; current policies and improved tax collection would imply continued small surpluses from 2018.
June 22, 2017
Iceland: Selected Issues
Description: This paper analyzes the explosion of tourism in Iceland, which has surged above all expectations. The number of tourists has almost quadrupled since the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions in 2010, establishing tourism at the heart of the economy. Tourists do not seem to be driven mainly by rising incomes at home, nor have they been deterred by rising costs on the back of króna appreciation—which leaves Iceland’s tourism boom largely unexplained by standard econometric models. Instead, Iceland’s natural wonders, welcoming atmosphere, general safety, improving connectedness, and social media outreach have drawn in visitors. Going forward, tourism is likely to grow less rapidly than in recent years, yet remain at strong levels.
June 22, 2017
Iceland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Iceland’s continued real GDP growth, driven by tourism. Growth reached 7.2 percent in 2016 and is projected at almost 6 percent in 2017 before tapering to about 2.5 percent over the medium term. Bank credit to the nonfinancial private sector remains muted, growing only 4.3 percent in 2016, but it is expected to pick up. Thus far, growth has been driven not by leverage but by exports, private consumption, and investment. Iceland’s current account surplus is projected to shrink modestly over time, with some export sectors suffering while others thrive.
June 22, 2017
Sierra Leone: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sierra Leone
Description: This paper discusses Sierra Leone’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). In the near term, this ECF is expected to support important but difficult policies: ending routine foreign exchange auctions and eliminating numerous tax and duty exemptions while increasing infrastructure spending and bolstering the social safety net. The ECF will also catalyze maintenance of external support. In the medium term, the proposed arrangement will provide the framework for structural progress on revenue mobilization, public financial management and financial sector reforms, and increased reserves. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the new ECF.
June 22, 2017
Cote d'Ivoire: First Reviews Under Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cote d'Ivoire
Description: This paper discusses Côte d’Ivoire’s First Reviews under Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and the Request for Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs) and Augmentation of Access. Growth is projected at about 7 percent a year in 2017–19, and inflation is expected to remain subdued. Falling world cocoa prices and rising oil prices are cutting into export receipts and fiscal revenues. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ requests for augmentation of program access under the ECF and EFF arrangements and modification of end-June 2017 PCs.
June 20, 2017
Denmark: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Denmark
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the recovery of the Danish economy, which is approaching potential, despite growth in recent years that has been markedly slower than before the crisis. Unemployment is low and close to its estimated structural level, and capacity constraints are gradually starting to bind in some sectors. The coincidence of low output growth and increasingly binding constraints highlights Denmark’s reduced growth potential, reflecting structurally weak productivity growth and low domestic investment levels. The outlook is for continued moderate growth, projected at 1.5 percent in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Activity is expected to be driven by strong and increasingly balanced private demand.
June 20, 2017
Denmark: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes household balance sheet structure in Denmark and sensitivity to rising rates. Households in Denmark have gotten considerably wealthier in recent decades. High household assets, in particular in the mandatory pension system and housing, provide stability by funding future consumption and protecting against shocks. The high, but mostly illiquid, assets have a counterpart, however, in the high household debt, as households often need to borrow to consume or buy property. The resulting combination of large assets and liabilities on household balance sheets make the Danish economy sensitive to interest-rate changes. Sudden increases in interest rates can create macroeconomic instability via their impact on the debt service of households and knock-on effects on consumption.
June 20, 2017
Multi-Country Report: Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Banking-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This paper presents country experiences with reforms to strengthen regulatory oversight of the Islamic banking sector. Based on the selected country experiences, a number of important lessons and policy options can be drawn that have implications for the stable and sound development of Islamic banking. An enabling regulatory and institutional framework and a level playing field for conventional and Islamic banks is critical for the sound and stable growth of the Islamic banking industry. The country experiences also underscore the importance of providing an enabling framework while letting market forces determine the size of the industry.
June 20, 2017
Seychelles: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Seychelles’ continued strong macroeconomic performance in 2016. Economic growth reached 4.5 percent, reflecting increased tourist arrivals, stronger output in the fishing industry, and expanding credit to the private sector. Helped by low commodity prices and a stable exchange rate, inflation (year over year) was negative throughout early 2017. The external current account deficit remained largely unchanged, while gross international reserves at the end of 2016 reached four months of prospective imports of goods and services. With continued foreign investment and rising arrivals in the tourism sector, the growth outlook for 2017 remains positive.