Country Reports
2017
July 7, 2017
Germany: Selected Issues
Description: This paper analyzes a very large database of corporate financial statements and ownership information published by Bureau van Dyck, to compare the profitability of German-owned firms located in Germany with that of German-owned firms located outside of Germany. The study relies on data for all nonfinancial, nonmining firms in the Orbis universe that are incorporated in a European country, have average annual sales of at least USD 25 million during 2006–2014, and have financial information available for each year during that period. Orbis coverage is generally considered to be good for continental European countries. For Germany, the coverage in our raw data is between 45 and 55 percent of total sales, using data published in Deutsche Bundesbank (2016) as a reference. The pattern in nonmanufacturing nonretail/wholesale sectors broadly follows that of manufacturing. The only difference is that German-owned firms that are not part of a multinational group are less profitable than their multinational peers, at least in the balanced sample.
July 7, 2017
Republic of Latvia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Latvia’s economic growth eased to 2 percent in 2016, as gross investment contracted significantly by 11.7 percent on the back of lower than expected absorption of European Union (EU) funds. This effect was compounded by a drag from net exports, as import volume growth accelerated markedly, while export growth remained modest. Despite a strong rise in imports, the current account recorded a surplus of 1.5 percent in 2016 as the terms of trade, driven largely by falling energy prices, improved by over 4.7 percent. Growth is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2017 on the back of an accelerated pace of disbursement of EU funds and continued robust private credit growth.
July 7, 2017
Germany: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Germany’s growth momentum has remained solid, underpinned by robust domestic demand. In 2016, strong employment growth continued to support private consumption, while public consumption and investment in construction accelerated further. Following a soft patch for most of the year, exports and investments in equipment have rebounded in the most recent quarters. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.8 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018, increasing the already positive output gap and pushing up core inflation. Over the medium term, population aging and slow progress on structural reforms is expected to weigh on growth.
July 7, 2017
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses potential growth and its drivers for Latvia 6 years after the growth turnaround and presents projections for the medium term. As the labor force is projected to decline, implementation of policies to increase investment and support total factor productivity (TFP) growth will be essential to ensure income convergence going forward. The level of potential growth has direct consequences for Latvia’s convergence path. Latvia’s GDP per capita was about 62 percent of the EU-15 average in 2015. A better understanding of potential output is important for policy setting. For example, an estimate of the output gap enters the fiscal reaction function through the cyclical adjustment of the fiscal balance and therefore directly influences policy makers’ assessments of whether fiscal policy should respond to deviations from potential. Potential output is an elusive concept and can be defined in various ways. Potential output is generally defined according to the Okun concept as the level of output consistent with stable inflation, while short-run deviations of actual from potential output, due to the slow adjustment of wages and prices to shocks, reflect the output gap—or economic slack.
July 7, 2017
Zimbabwe: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Zimbabwe’s economy is facing difficulties. A severe drought and slow reform momentum have led to high expenditure levels since late 2015 despite subdued revenues. With limited access to foreign inflows, the ensuing fiscal imbalances have become unsustainable, and are being financed by rising domestic borrowing. Growth in 2017 is expected to be supported by a strong performance in agriculture mainly owing to exceptional rains. However, economic activity in the medium term is projected to remain subdued, pending adjustment and reform that tackle the structural challenges and enable the economy to restore fiscal and external sustainability and achieve its growth potential.
July 6, 2017
South Africa: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced and are set to increase further unless economic growth revives. Following near-standstill in economic activity in 2016, growth is projected to increase to 1.0 percent in 2017 and 1.2 percent in 2018. The current account deficit is projected to decline to 3 percent of GDP in 2017, boosted by mining and agricultural exports. Consumer price inflation recently returned below 6 percent, owing in part to the easing of the drought, and is projected to remain marginally below the upper threshold of the 3–6 percent target band for the remainder of 2017 and in 2018.
July 6, 2017
Botswana: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: This Technical Assistance Report presents an assessment of public investment management in Botswana. Botswana’s public investment has been consistently high for the past 25 years coupled with prudent fiscal policy and moderate debt at about 10 percent of GDP. Relatively high public investment spending has contributed to steady accumulation of capital stock—almost three times more per capita than peers and emerging market averages. More than 60 percent of investment is spent on economic affairs. While Botswana performed better than peer and emerging market averages up to 2010, more recently, indicators of infrastructure quality suggest significant bottlenecks, particularly in access to electricity supply and railways.
July 5, 2017
Norway: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy is slowly recovering from the oil shock as domestic demand grew stronger aided by accommodative macroeconomic policies. Inflation declined recently owing to the pass-through of krone appreciation, but expectations remain well-anchored. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. Mainland growth is projected to increase from just below 1 percent in 2016 to 1.75 and 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, supported by the recovery of exports and stronger private demand. Inflation is projected to edge down further in pace with the unwinding of krone depreciation, before converging to the target over the medium term as trading-partner inflation rises.
July 5, 2017
Norway: Selected Issues
Description: This paper examines various factors driving the uptrend in house prices, with a particular focus on institutional and structural factors. The extent of a possible valuation gap is gauged empirically in the context of a cross-country panel analysis of long-run fundamental determinants of house prices using data from 20 OECD countries. Norway has seen a long housing boom since the mid-1990s apart from a brief and mild downturn during the global financial crisis, with house price inflation exceeding income growth by a wide margin. Although real house prices have also been up strongly during the same period in the majority of advanced economies, Norway experienced one of the highest increases in the OECD. With house prices rising ahead of income, the average cost of a home relative to the median household income nationwide has almost doubled since the mid-1990s, rising much faster than OECD average. In absolute terms, the house price-to-income (PTI) ratio is also high relative to a range of countries.
July 5, 2017
Malawi: Ninth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
Description: This paper discusses Malawi’s Ninth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of performance criteria. Real GDP growth is expected to range between 4–5 percent in 2017 owing to a good agricultural harvest and its expected spillovers to other sectors of the economy. Growth prospects, however, will be constrained by persistent power blackouts, water shortages, and access to credit. Real growth is expected to gradually increase over the medium term as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and investment and consumption levels rise. The outlook remains challenging, reflecting uncertainties related to weather conditions, the impact of the fall armyworm infestation on food crops and risks of policy slippages.