Country Reports
2017
July 18, 2017
Turkey: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This paper discusses findings of the evaluation of fiscal transparency in Turkey. As a result of several reforms, Turkey has made significant progress against the 36 principles of the IMF’s new Fiscal Transparency Code. Of the 36 principles in the Code, Turkey now meets 10 principles at the basic level, 13 principles at the good level, and 6 principles at the advanced level. Fiscal transparency practices are strongest in the area of fiscal reporting. Moreover, in 5 of the areas where Turkey’s transparency practices do not currently meet basic practice, this could be readily addressed by publishing data that are already collected for internal management purposes.
July 18, 2017
Burkina Faso: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Economic growth rose to almost 6 percent in 2016, driven by increases in cotton and gold production, following two years of relatively subdued economic performance related to the political transition. Program performance continues to be satisfactory, with all quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks met for the seventh and final review; two indicative targets were missed by small margins. Based on the authorities’ program performance and assurances going forward, the IMF staff recommends the completion of the seventh and final review under the ECF arrangement.
July 18, 2017
Republic of Madagascar: 2017 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criterion and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex, Debt Sustainability Analysis, and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic developments in Madagascar were encouraging in 2016. Driven by public investment, increasing textile exports, and accelerating activity in agroindustry, economic growth reached 4.2 percent in 2016—the highest level since 2008. Reforms continued in revenue administration, and fiscal revenue exceeded targets. Inflation was contained at 7.0 percent at end-2016. The external position strengthened significantly, benefitting from a positive shock to vanilla export prices and strong growth in manufacturing exports. In spite of current challenges, the medium term outlook is favorable. Growth is projected to accelerate, driven by the investment scaling up, tourism, garments and other light manufacturing, mining, and productivity gains in agriculture.
July 18, 2017
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper surveys the economic costs of corruption in Madagascar, and provides a few ideas on how to advance anticorruption reforms. Madagascar’s governance indicators weakened significantly during the transition period 2009–13. Governance indicators that generally were on par with middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) ten years ago have regressed and converged to the average of fragile SSA countries. After the return of constitutional order in 2014, the government has started to address corruption, mainly through the introduction of new laws so far. More emphasis is needed on effective implementation and raising sufficient resources to fight corruption.
July 18, 2017
Republic of Madagascar: Economic Development Document
Description: This Economic Development Document describes the strategy adopted by the government of Madagascar to reverse the trend of modest economic performance, deteriorating social conditions, and persistent poverty observed in recent years. This strategy addresses the underlying causes of poverty. The primary aim of the fiscal policy is to increase revenue and rationalize budget expenditure to provide ample margins to finance priority spending, specifically social and infrastructure spending. The priorities are to expand the tax base and continuing reform of tax and customs administration, and to eliminate the causes of inefficient public expenditure. The monetary policy is given the role of regulating domestic liquidity to normalize trends in economic activities and achieve the inflation targets of less than 10.0 percent.
July 17, 2017
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
Description: This paper highlights the fact that to address the challenge of declining working age population, policies should not only aim to support fertility, but also to increase labor force participation rate, to improve labor allocation across sectors and to encourage net immigration. However, with some recent measures going in the opposite direction, even such mitigating policies may not fully offset the demographic headwinds. Poland faces profound demographic changes. The decline of fertility rate and growing life expectancy, mostly driven by longevity of older cohorts, will significantly change the demographic landscape. Demographics may soon pose a barrier for growth. The historical expansion of working age population appears to have been only partly utilized to boost potential growth, with increased unemployment and declined labor force participation rates dampening potential gains. Net migration was also a drag on the labor supply in the past, but this has changed recently. In addition to a steady outflow of permanent migrants, there was a sharp pickup in temporary migration after EU accession.
July 17, 2017
Republic of Poland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Poland
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s near-term growth momentum remains strong, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies and sizeable European Union transfers. The economy is operating above potential, with the unemployment rate at a historical low. Growth is projected to accelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017 and remain strong in 2018. Long-term growth, however, will be more subdued, unless adverse demographics and structural constraints on investment and productivity growth are addressed. Risks to the near-term outlook are broadly balanced. Monetary policy remains accommodative, with policy rate kept at a historically low level since early 2015.
July 14, 2017
United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues
Description: This paper outlines a consolidated Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), which is comprehensive and forward looking, could set a clear direction for fiscal policy for the country as a whole and better align resource allocation with local and national developments plans underpinned by goals embodied in the Vision 2021. High quality of public financial management systems overall is also key ingredient of an appropriate MTFF. The framework could consider explicitly expenditure needs in critical areas such as education and health care. Monitoring of contingent liabilities needs to be strengthened, including covering private and public partnerships (PPPs) and government related enterprises (GREs) including their global subsidiaries. Data sharing across all levels of governments, including the central bank, could also be strengthened. The federal government and the Emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai have started using MTFFs to inform their fiscal policy choices, albeit to different degrees.
July 14, 2017
United Arab Emirates: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report and Informational Annex for the United Arab Emirates
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic performance of the United Arab Emirates was subdued during most of 2016. Together with weaker oil prices and slower oil output growth, the postponement of some public infrastructure projects and a slowdown in global trade caused growth to moderate to 3 percent from 3.8 percent in 2015. Economic activity is expected to strengthen gradually in the coming years with firming oil prices and other global indicators, and an easing pace of fiscal consolidation. Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 3.3 percent in 2017 from 2.7 percent in 2016, reflecting increased domestic public investment and a pickup in global trade.
July 13, 2017
Rwanda: Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, and Second Review Under the Standby Credit Facility- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Rwanda has demonstrated strong macroeconomic policy management and implemented an ambitious development strategy that has resulted in high and inclusive growth, lower poverty and more gender equality, and improved living standards. Growth in 2016 was 5.9 percent, down from 2015, but comparing favorably to growth in the subcontinent. A recovery of growth is expected in 2017–18, owing to good rains and expanding domestic production. A spike in consumer price inflation in early 2017 was driven by food prices. Main risks to economic growth continue to be weather shocks affecting agriculture, regional security issues, and unexpected shifts in external development assistance.