Country Reports
2017
July 24, 2017
Paraguay: Selected Issues
Description: This paper highlights about a relatively large young population is a key strength for Paraguay’s pension and health systems, a demographic shock will pose a key challenge. Fertility rates, measured as the number of children per woman, have already dropped substantially—from 6½ children per woman in the 1950s to 2.6 children per woman over 2010–2015. A rise in social security coverage will also impact the Instituto de Provisión Social (IPS), pension program over the longer term. Contributors have risen from 13 percent of the labor force in 2010 to around 21 percent in recent years. The authorities are also proposing new legislation to reform pension’s oversight and investments. While Paraguay’s financial system remains bank-based, the IPS and other pension funds are key institutional investors. The projections are based on a mix of data and assumptions from local and international sources. Demographic projections are those of the United Nations Population vision while data on labor force come from the International Labor Organization.
July 24, 2017
Jordan: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Jordan has made significant progress since the 2014 Article IV Consultation but pressing challenges remain. The gradual pick-up in growth from 2010 to 2014 ended in 2015, with real GDP growth decelerating from 2.4 percent in 2015 to 2 percent in 2016. Labor market conditions have remained challenging, particularly for youth and women, with the unemployment rate increasing to 15.8 percent in the second half of 2016. Despite considerable progress and recent improvements, the outlook remains challenging. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 2.3 percent in 2017, while inflation is expected to stabilize at about 2.5 percent by year-end.
July 24, 2017
Paraguay: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Paraguay has grown robustly despite a more challenging external environment. The economy gained momentum toward the end of 2016 and expanded by 6.5 percent (year-over-year) during the first quarter of 2017. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017, reflecting a more moderate pace of activity in the second half of the year. Investment will likely be a crucial driver of growth, as major infrastructure projects are undertaken. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is expected to remain near potential of just below 4 percent. Risks around the outlook are to the downside, especially from heightened political uncertainty in Brazil.
July 24, 2017
Jordan: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses the Syrian Refugee Crisis (SRC) and conflicts in Syria and Iraq have weighed on investor sentiment, tourism, and exports but the influx of Syrians is likely to have increased aggregate demand. Labor market conditions deteriorated after the massive influx of refugees and nontradable prices accelerated. The balance of payment suffered pressures on the non-oil current account, owing to lower exports of goods and services and higher imports. The SRC has increased the direct fiscal costs persistently by above one percent of GDP, which could double after counting for quality and capital deterioration. The negative impact is decreasing as the influx of Syrian refugees slowed and the stock pushed up aggregate demand. The influx of more than 10 percent of Jordan’s original population may have certainly increased consumption, particularly, over time as the incomers settled and the likelihood of returning to their home country diminishes. Unemployment grew the most in governorates that host most of the refugees.
July 24, 2017
Senegal: Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for an Extension of the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
Description: This paper discusses Senegal’s Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for an Extension of the PSI. Performance under the PSI-supported program has been satisfactory, with all end-December 2016 assessment criteria and indicative targets met and four of the seven end-March 2017 indicative targets met. Of the five structural benchmarks set for the period from December 2016 to March 2017, three were met. Of the two unmet structural benchmarks, one was implemented with delay and one has not yet been implemented. The IMF staff recommends completion of the fourth PSI review and approval of the one-year extension of the PSI.
July 20, 2017
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures required to improve the national accounts of Suriname, including consistency with the System of National Accounts 2008. The General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) is expected to implement the recommendations of the IMF mission progressively over a five-year period. Given the staff time wasted on data entry and potential transcription errors, the GBS should give high priority to requesting the Ministry of Finance to provide the Government accounts data in Excel format for 2015 onward. With the support of the Finance Minister, the GBS also needs to implement a formal agreement with the Tax Department to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.
July 20, 2017
Greece: Request for Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: This paper discusses Greece’s Request for Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The program will be narrowly focused on policies that can help restore macroeconomic stability in the medium run and facilitate market access in Greece. It seeks to provide breathing space to mobilize broad political support for the deeper structural reforms needed for Greece to liberalize its economy and prosper within the euro area in the long term. The program will also provide a framework for Greece’s European partners to deliver debt relief to restore Greece’s debt sustainability.
July 20, 2017
Guinea-Bissau: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Guinea–Bissau’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Financing Assurances Review. Program implementation for the third review has been satisfactory. Four of five PCs, three of four indicative targets, and six of eight structural benchmarks were met. Corrective measures have been taken in the remaining areas, with several steps already completed. Economic activity has remained robust and there has been good progress in improving public financial management. Maintaining the positive economic momentum will require further strengthening of public financial management to reduce the fiscal deficit and support macroeconomic stability.
July 19, 2017
Republic of Armenia: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Fifth and Final Review Under the Extended Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Armenia
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Armenia’s growth has been satisfactory with inflation under control, the fiscal situation broadly well managed, and foreign exchange reserves enhanced. In 2016, GDP growth was only 0.2 percent, deflationary pressures persisted, and the fiscal deficit rose to 5.6 percent of GDP. Economic activity in 2017 has shown signs of recovery, accompanied by a pickup in inflation and private sector credit growth, supported by monetary policy easing. With improving outlook in major trading partners and a pickup in private sector activity, real GDP is projected to grow by about 3 percent in 2017, while inflation would reach about 2 percent by end-2017.
July 19, 2017
Republic of Armenia: Selected Issues
Description: This paper describes that with the global downturn in 2007–2009, some of these achievements were partially reversed due to severe negative shocks to growth and changes in the composition of growth. While compared to peer countries, inequality in Armenia remains low; it has increased somewhat since 2009. Poverty has marginally declined after the global crisis, but unemployment remains high. Creating jobs, reducing poverty, and higher inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and implementing pro-poor policies. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness. Poverty declined during the 2000s, supported by high growth. Poverty rate decreased by one third and the extreme poverty declined by half during 2004–2008. In addition to strong growth which created many job opportunities, higher social expenditures played a key role in lowering poverty. Regional disparities of poverty levels remain very high. These disparities, however, are geographical and not across the urban/rural divide. Indeed, contrary to the common perception, poverty rates in urban and rural areas are almost the same.