Country Reports
2017
September 15, 2017
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Improving GDP Forecasting
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for improving GDP forecasting in Uganda. GDP forecasting, ranging from a quarterly to a five-year horizon, must be improved using the tools that are now available at the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED). The five-year forecast can be fruitfully used in the medium-term projections of government revenue, deficit and debt. The short-term forecasts should be systematically integrated within the (annual) sectoral forecasts currently being done at the MoFPED. While considering the set of tools under development, the IMF mission recommends the deployment of these tools in a more urgent manner, to stimulate learning-by-doing of local staff.
September 15, 2017
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Cash Management and Reviewing the Treasury Single Account
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses recommendations for strengthening cash management and reviewing of the treasury single account in Uganda. The Cash Management Guidelines in Uganda have been approved. The coverage of the cash resource pool must be precisely defined and non-budget flows excluded. The cash flow forecasting model should continue to be developed along the lines given in previous Technical Assistance reports. The publication and dissemination of the Guidelines will provide authority to the Cash Policy Department to implement a program of training and capacity building within the central government entities in coordination with other directorates of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. This should be started as soon as the Guidelines are released.
September 15, 2017
Federated States of Micronesia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Federated States of Micronesia
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Micronesian economy continued its gradual recovery in fiscal year 2016 (ending September 30), after three years of contraction during 2012–14. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.0 percent in 2016, driven by increased construction activity related to infrastructure projects. Consumer prices remained broadly stable. The fiscal balance recorded an estimated surplus of 9 percent of GDP, after another year of strong revenues from fishing license fees. In 2017, growth is expected to moderate to 2 percent, as the recovery continues at a slower pace. Despite the recovery, risks are tilted to the downside beyond the near term.
September 15, 2017
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Cash Management
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to strengthen cash management in Uganda. It recommends establishing a high-level cash management committee to provide the necessary authority to the Cash Policy Department (CPD) in maintaining its relationships, in constantly improving the cash flow forecasts, and in operating active cash management transactions. In the medium term, when cash flow forecasting has gained sufficient accuracy, the CPD must prepare for active cash management operations which will consist of short-term borrowing and investment. An appropriate cash buffer level also needs to be calculated which will define the necessary money market transactions to smooth government cash operations.
September 14, 2017
Montenegro: Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses the first phase, to be constructed from 2015 to mid-2019, comprises a 41-kilometer section that is to provide an efficient and safe transport link between Podgorica and the poorest northern region in Montenegro. It runs through the mountainous terrain in the center of the country that is economically undeveloped. Due to its large cost (25 percent of 2017 GDP), the first phase of the highway has used up most of Montenegro’s fiscal space and will crowd out other productive spending. For the foreseeable future, the second and third parts of the highway could only be financed with concessional funds, because loans would destabilize the debt sustainability of Montenegro. The government’s main motivation for this large project is the need to improve connectivity, particularly to Europe through Serbia, boost tourism and trade, improve road safety, and strengthen national security. The highway is a part of Montenegro’s plans to integrate the Montenegrin transport network with those of neighboring countries.
September 14, 2017
Montenegro: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release;Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. The growth should continue over the medium term, boosted by the implementation of large investment projects, including the construction of the Bar–Boljare Highway. The IMF staff projects the economy to expand by 3 percent in 2017 and 2.75 percent in 2018, with planned fiscal consolidation acting as a moderate drag on growth. Conditions in the banking sector continue to strengthen, with improving asset quality and recovering credit growth. Nonperforming loans, however, remain elevated, and the sector appears to be over-banked, presenting a challenge for bank profitability.
September 11, 2017
Kingdom of Swaziland: Selected Issues
Description: This paper highlights that banks and nonbank financial institutions, businesses and households have large exposures to the government and, in some cases, their own vulnerabilities. In this context, a fiscal shock can rapidly propagate into the economy through the financial sector. The financial sector is also likely to amplify the impact of shocks on the economy, possibly opening the way to deep recession. In the case of an extreme shock with difficulties in servicing debt, the banking system capitalization would be significantly hit. Staff analysis highlights the need for fiscal consolidation and for strengthening the CBS’s role in monitoring and managing macrofinancial risks. Since 2015, the government’s balance sheet, liquidity, and risk exposures have been rapidly deteriorating, raising concerns about the impact on other sectors of the economy. As in many countries, the government in Swaziland is a major economic player with strong linkages with both the financial and nonfinancial sectors.
September 11, 2017
Kingdom of Swaziland: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Swaziland
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic conditions have recently deteriorated in Swaziland. In 2016, two shocks—a prolonged drought and a sharp decline in South African Customs Union (SACU) receipts—severely hit the economy, while an expansionary fiscal policy worsened fiscal and external balances. Growth in 2016 stagnated, as agricultural productions declined, and headline inflation increased sharply, mostly owing to rising food prices. Fiscal policy remains on an expansionary course, while the monetary stance has tightened. Despite a pickup in SACU revenue, the 2017 budget envisages a continuation of large fiscal deficits, and further increase in public debt.
September 8, 2017
Morocco: Second Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line(PLL)-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s Second Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). Growth prospects for 2017 have improved, but nonagricultural growth is subdued. The current account deficit is projected to decline and international reserves are at a comfortable level. The IMF staff assesses that Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria and performs strongly in four out of the five areas of PLL qualification (external, monetary, financial, and data), does not substantially underperform in the fifth area (fiscal). The IMF staff recommends the completion of the second review under the PLL arrangement.
September 8, 2017
Microsoft Word - Morocco 2017 - Staff+Report EPE of 2014 PLL Arrangement (French)
Description: This paper discusses Morocco’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement. The case of Morocco demonstrated that with strong ownership, parsimonious conditionality can be effective in delivering on program commitments. The PLL arrangement with Morocco was successful in helping to reduce vulnerabilities. Fiscal balances improved, and the fiscal objective—a gradual reduction of the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2017—appropriately balanced the need to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down closer to 60 percent in the medium term, while allowing for necessary investment and social spending. Going forward, to achieve higher and more inclusive growth, Morocco will require continued strong policies and accelerated fiscal and structural reforms.