Country Reports
2017
December 20, 2017
Dominica: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Dominica’s recovery from Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated, with output growth of 1 percent in 2016, dragged down by a storm-related decline in manufacturing. Moreover, capacity constraints and unfavorable weather slowed public investment more than anticipated. Despite ample liquidity, bank credit to the private sector remains weak, although this is in part relieved by growing lending by credit unions. Growth is projected to accelerate to above 3 percent in 2017–18 on the back of a pickup in public investment and several large-scale private projects with citizenship-by-investment and grant financing.
December 20, 2017
Dominica: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses the optimal management of Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) program revenues in Dominica. Dominica’s CBI inflows have reached near 10 percent of GDP, increasing the country’s reliance on these revenues. It is argued that given their volatile and unpredictable nature, CBI revenues should be used prudently. Their use should be mindful of the chances of a sudden stop in these flows. It is therefore essential to prioritize investment, debt reduction, and saving in lieu of current expenditure, which is typically more difficult to reverse. Simulation analysis based on fiscal multipliers indicate that such combination of policies would boost GDP and help reach the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP by 2030 as committed by the government.
December 20, 2017
Niger: First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses Niger’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. Despite security challenges and unfavorable commodity prices, economic performance of Niger has been satisfactory against the backdrop of a good crop season, with real GDP growing by 5 percent in 2016 while inflation remained contained at 0.2 percent. Growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2017, mainly on the back of strengthening hydrocarbon and services sectors, and robust credit growth. The current account deficit will likely decline to 13.4 percent of GDP, reflecting rising exports of oil products, a rebound in uranium exports, and the winding down of import-intensive infrastructure projects.
December 19, 2017
Guinea: Economic Development Documents
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s 2016–20 National Economic and Social Development Plan (PNDES). The PNDES represents the second generation of planning under the Third Republic, after the 2011–15 Five-Year Plan. Through the 2016–20 PNDES, the authorities intend to address the various development challenges posed by the socioeconomic and environmental situation while ensuring post-Ebola public health surveillance and alignment with international development agendas. The principal beneficiaries of the PNDES are the Guinean populations, but particularly poor and vulnerable groups, the government itself, the private sector, and the regions, including urban and rural areas.
December 19, 2017
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Common Policies of Member Countries and Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: This paper discusses the common policies of the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC’s medium-term outlook remains challenging. It foresees a gradual improvement in the economic and financial situation in the region, assuming full implementation of policy commitments by CEMAC member states and regional institutions. Policies to diversify the economies by improving the business environment, including through enhanced governance and transparency, would support higher growth in the medium term. The monetary policy stance would be kept tight as needed to support external stability and reserves accumulation.
December 19, 2017
Guinea: Request For A Three-Year Arrangement Under The Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The Guinean economy has rebounded from the adverse impact of the Ebola epidemic, and growth is expected to continue to be sustained supported by buoyant mining activity and the scaling-up of infrastructure investments. The three-year ECF arrangement will help Guinea address a protracted balance of payment need and implement economic policies and reforms to foster higher and broad-based growth. The program will also play a catalytic role in mobilizing donor financing, notably from the World Bank and the European Union.
December 19, 2017
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Selected Issues
Description: This paper discusses the CEMAC Regional convergence framework that aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. CEMAC Regional convergence framework aims at ensuring that national policies are consistent with a smooth functioning of CEMAC’s economic and monetary union. Established in 1999, a few years after the 1994 devaluation, as part of the Convergence and Stability Pact, it aims at addressing the coordination challenges posed by CEMAC’s common monetary policies and decentralized fiscal policies. Owing in part to the weaknesses, the fiscal convergence framework has not been sufficient to prevent a sharp deterioration in public accounts over the last few years.
December 18, 2017
Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Princípe: Third and Fourth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Extension of the Arrangement, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
Description: This paper discusses São Tomé and Príncipe’s Third and Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Extension of the Arrangement, And Modification of Performance Criteria (PCs). Program implementation is broadly back on track. After missing the end-2016 fiscal targets by large margins, the government adopted corrective measures and met all five end-June 2017 PCs. The implementation of structural reforms under the program is progressing, albeit at a much slower pace than anticipated due mainly to capacity constraints and delays in the delivery of technical assistance. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the joint third and fourth reviews, approval of the extension to end-2018, and rephasing of the program.
December 18, 2017
Republic of Belarus: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Belarusian economy is recovering after two years of recession, helped by better policies, a more favorable external environment, and stronger domestic demand conditions. In 2017Q3, the economy grew by 1.7 percent year-on-year, amid household consumption boosted by strong wage growth and recovering investment. The current account deficit has narrowed, reflecting growth in services exports, as well as recession and real exchange rate adjustment in 2015–16. Medium-term growth is expected to be about 2 percent, limited by negative demographics, weak credit conditions, and lagging competitiveness under the state-centric economic model.
December 18, 2017
Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues
Description: The paper considers the relatively low level of diversification of Belarusian exports relative to peers, and barriers to higher export potential. Belarus faces different trade regimes vis-à-vis its largest trading partner, Russia, in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU); and its second-largest, the European Union (EU). The paper discusses tariff and nontariff barriers within the EEU; the more restrictive trade relations with the EU; and other potential barriers to trade, including logistics and limited trade facilitation. WTO accession would help improve export competitiveness. Further EEU integration could also boost trade potential, but with the attendant risk that trading links become more concentrated rather than diversified. Belarus’s largest revealed comparative advantages are in areas where it is difficult to move into new products. Belarus’s trade patterns are significantly more concentrated than those of peer countries. Belarus has lowered tariffs in recent years, including in the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).