Country Reports
2018
February 13, 2018
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2017 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Extension of the Arrangement, Rephasing of Purchases, and Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the macroeconomic conditions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) have remained stable. BiH has made progress in reducing internal and external imbalances in recent years, thanks to a prudent fiscal position, and a strong monetary anchor provided by the currency board. However, job creation has been limited, unemployment has remained high, particularly among the youth, and the income convergence with the European Union has stalled. Fiscal stability has been maintained, mainly through continued restraint on current government spending. Progress in improving budget composition has been limited and reforms of state enterprises have not progressed as envisaged.
February 13, 2018
United Kingdom: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth in the United Kingdom has moderated since the beginning of 2017, reflecting weakening domestic demand. The sharp depreciation of sterling following the referendum has raised consumer price inflation, squeezing household real income and consumption. Business investment has been constrained. In the medium term, growth is projected to remain at about 1.5 percent under the baseline assumption of continued progress in Brexit negotiations that lead to an understanding on a broad free trade agreement and on the transition process. The baseline outlook is subject to a number of risks, including developments with Brexit negotiations; uncertainty about the recovery of productivity growth; and the current account deficit.
February 13, 2018
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom finds that the main factors behind the slowdown include weak productivity growth, labor market slack, and low inflation. Recent labor market developments in the United Kingdom appear to point to disconnect between unemployment and wages. Although the unemployment rate has fallen to a 40-year low, wage growth continues to growth at a subdued pace. The analysis in this paper suggests that this puzzle is explained by persistent weak productivity growth and well-anchored inflation expectations, as well as by greater effective labor market slack than suggested by the headline unemployment rate. Broader measures of underemployment—accounting for involuntary part-time unemployment, inactive and self-employed people seeking regular jobs—suggest that slack in the labor market was higher than implied by the unemployment rate in recent years. Persistent tightness of the labor market should prompt some firming of wage growth in the coming year, everything else equal. A mild increase in unit labor costs would help bring domestically generated inflation in line with the inflation target.
February 12, 2018
Costa Rica: Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics (October 13-23, 2014)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations made by the IMF missions on the balance of payments and international investment position dynamics in Costa Rica. In view of the results of the economic survey, the mission recommended that the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance, follow up with respondents to raise awareness of the importance of reporting transactions by residency. Regarding the work on secondary income, the mission observed that the BCCR has a reliable estimate of income of seasonal and border workers in Costa Rica. It is expected that the BCCR will be able to collect information on pensions received by foreign residents who retire in Costa Rica.
February 12, 2018
Costa Rica: Technical Assistance Report-The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (March 6-14, 2014)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey in Costa Rica. It was observed that the practices followed to prepare external statistics employed adequate data collection instruments and appropriate methodologies. The mission stresses the importance of defining and implementing, in the short term, a work program to convert the complete balance of payments and International Investment Position historical series using the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) presentation. The conversion of time series to BPM6 should be accompanied by a methodological note explaining the characteristics of the new series and specifying which data were estimated in accordance with the new classification.
February 12, 2018
El Salvador: Technical Assistance Report-The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (April 21-29, 2014)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about the compilation of Coordinated Direct Investment Survey and Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) in El Salvador. The mission recommended the authorities to research the nature of the information available that may be useful for starting the CPIS. This entails discussions regarding the forms designed during the mission for requesting information from new sources. It was also recommended to continue efforts to improve the coverage of surveys applied to nonfinancial private sector enterprises, with emphasis on the largest enterprises that are still reluctant to respond to the balance-of-payments questionnaires.
February 12, 2018
El Salvador: Technical Assistance Report-Balance of Payments, International Investment Position, and Secondary Income Statistics (July 14-22, 2014)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission regarding the balance of payments, international investment position, and secondary income statistics in El Salvador. The mission reviewed progress made on the recommendations for the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). Although El Salvador is currently reporting data to the CDIS, there are some topics that need improvement, particularly the positions of the shareholders of the three most important financial groups and their subsidiaries to avoid duplicate entries. The mission agreed with the authorities regarding the monitoring of processing payment vouchers sent to the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador by banks and other entities paying remittances for amounts exceeding the threshold of US$500 to complete the personal transfers’ estimates.
February 8, 2018
Republic of Fiji: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Fiji
Description: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Fiji’s economy is recovering well after Tropical Cyclone Winston and is expected to record its eighth consecutive year of expansion in 2017. Growth is expected to pick up to about 4 percent in 2017, underpinned by reconstruction activities, a vibrant tourism sector, and the recovery of agriculture production. The growth momentum is projected to continue in the coming years. Inflation declined sharply in recent months as the supply of food items started to normalize and is projected to remain about 3 percent. Risks to the economic outlook are largely related to external developments.
February 6, 2018
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendation made by the IMF mission to support the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina in improving government finance statistics (GFS) for decision making. The mission recommends that the authorities give consideration to the full list of objects, whereby Bosnia and Herzegovina can successfully compile GFS on an organized and comprehensive basis and within a designated amount of time. As a first step, the authorities will review the object list. As a second step, the mission together with the authorities will attach projected timelines/milestones to each lowest level object. If an object is already in place, then it will be noted as complete, and no further action will be needed.
February 6, 2018
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the recommendations made by the IMF mission to assist the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) with the compilation of government finance statistics (GFS) in accordance with the guidelines of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the European System of National and Regional Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010). It was recommended that the CBBH that compiles GFS and the statistical office of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which compiles national accounts statistics, coordinate the coding to ESA 2010. The CBBH will also examine budget items in the chart of accounts for which no unique GFS code could be assigned during the mission.