Country Reports
2018
April 26, 2018
Vanuatu: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Three years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction efforts are near completion with full recovery in sight. However, capacity constraints and coordination issues have hampered the use of committed funds by donors and development partners, thereby slowing down recovery. Meanwhile, the government’s ambitious development agenda is making good progress with several major infrastructure projects completed or projected to be completed in the next year.
April 25, 2018
West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Common Policies for Member Countries - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the WAEMU
Description: This report reviews the discussions between the IMF and the regional institutions of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). It highlights that the economic activity in the WAEMU remains strong but vulnerabilities persist. Despite lower terms of trade, social tensions, and security challenges within the region, real GDP growth is estimated to have exceeded 6 percent in 2017, underpinned by strong domestic demand. The outlook remains positive but hinges critically on the planned fiscal consolidation and implementation of structural reforms by member countries. Growth is projected to stay above 6 percent with continued low inflation over the medium term. Risks are tilted to the downside.
April 25, 2018
West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): Selected Issues
Description: Selected Issues
April 18, 2018
Cabo Verde: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cabo Verde
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Cabo Verde is gaining momentum, reflecting a more favorable external environment and the payoff of ongoing economic reforms. In 2017, the economy is estimated to have expanded by 4 percent supported by the double digit-growth in tourist arrivals, the recovery in credit to the private sector, and stronger consumer and business confidence. These factors are expected to boost growth further to 4.3 percent in 2018. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected to stabilize at about 4 percent. Financial stability indicators have improved but the level of nonperforming loans remains elevated.
April 18, 2018
Cabo Verde: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of the nature and scope of corresponding banking relationships (CBRs) withdrawals in Cabo Verde and discusses policy options to address this challenge. The paper reports the results of a bank level survey and employs the minimum scope framework developed by Grolleman and Jutrsa (2017) on Cabo Verdean bank level data for 2014–2017. Banks in Cabo Verde have experienced a reduction in CBRs since 2013. Bank level survey shows that the terminations are broad based and involves both the central bank and commercial banks. The impact on the banking system has so far been minimal but banks reported facing increased cost of US dollar transactions. The results using the minimum scope framework shows that value of payment flows declined significantly between 2014 and 2016. There is a need for coordinated efforts by all relevant stakeholders at the institutional, national, and regional levels to contribute their knowledge and skills to the resolution of the problem.
April 18, 2018
Cote d'Ivoire: Technical Assistance Report-Modernizing the Analysis, Monitoring, and Disclosure of Fiscal Risks
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission about modernizing the analysis, monitoring and disclosure of fiscal risks in Côte d’Ivoire. It was found that existing practices for identifying, monitoring and disclosing fiscal risks are still limited and fall below emerging country standards. There is no centralized process, at the level of the economic and financial ministries, no comprehensive identification, quantification and, even less so, monitoring of fiscal risks. Efforts should continue in the direction of proactive management of fiscal risks. Such management would be a determining factor in maintaining the strong economic dynamic of the Ivoirian economy.
April 16, 2018
Jamaica: 2018 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Jamaica’s GDP growth is estimated to have been a disappointing 0.5 percent in 2017. Weakness in agriculture, slow recovery in mining, and a deceleration in manufacturing offset growth in tourism and construction. The growth forecast is being revised down to 0.9 percent in FY17/18 and about 2.25 percent in the medium term. Inflation remains well-anchored. Higher food prices resulting from flooding have begun to unwind. The current account deficit remains relatively low (at 2.8 percent of GDP in FY17/18) and it is expected to shrink over the medium-term, as oil prices remain contained and tourism earnings improve.
April 11, 2018
Republic of San Marino: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents scenarios to assess debt dynamics and discusses key considerations in developing a medium-term fiscal strategy and adjustments.in San Marino. San Marino faces new fiscal challenges. Recent interventions in the financial sector are set to increase the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) level, although the eventual level of public debt remains highly uncertain. The government has granted banks the right to convert tax credits to government bonds, thus creating contingent liabilities. Going forward a fiscal strategy is needed. The scenario analysis in this paper suggests that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 55–90 percent of GDP. Such levels would be high for San Marino and well above the level observed in other European microstates. At the same time, government deposits have been decreasing to a low level. A medium-term fiscal strategy could thus aim at containing the debt-to-GDP ratio and rebuilding deposits. The analysis in this paper offered considerations that could be helpful in determining fiscal adjustments needed to reach such targets.
April 11, 2018
Republic of San Marino: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of San Marino
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that San Marino’s economy rebounded in 2016, on the back of recovering domestic demand and important gains in employment. However, the growth momentum slowed in 2017 amid financial sector uncertainties around a sizable loss at the largest bank and a closure of a small bank. Only moderate growth is projected in the near and medium term. The economy is projected to grow at 1.3 percent in 2018, driven by domestic demand. Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, and an externally financed investment project will add a significant boost to investment, which otherwise lacks support from the deleveraging banking sector.
April 4, 2018
Mongolia: Staff Report for the Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia
Description: This IMF Staff Report discusses Mongolia’s Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility. Mongolia’s performance under the program thus far has been strong. The economy is recovering better than expected, with real GDP growth of 5.1 percent in 2017. The combination of strong policy implementation and a supportive external environment has helped the authorities over-perform on all end-December 2017 quantitative targets. However, the performance on structural reforms has been mixed with some delays on structural benchmarks under the program and reversals of three fiscal measures considered during previous reviews. Given the strong performance to date, continued improvement in the macro outlook, and still high public debt, the authorities committed to tightening the fiscal and reserve targets.