Country Reports
2018
May 29, 2018
Colombia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the export growth in Colombia. Colombian exports are heavily concentrated in commodities but the large real depreciation since 2015 offers an opportunity to grow nontraditional exports substantially. Colombia’s comparative advantage in noncommodity products was weak in 2013-15, and export diversification was low, partly owing to the commodity price boom. Exports grew moderately in recent years but in line with historical relationships given fundamentals. The export outlook is positive. Given global growth assumptions, the IMF staff’s models predict acceleration in export growth. The historical experience of commodity exporters suffers large real depreciations also paints a positive picture.
May 29, 2018
Costa Rica: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program-Tax Gap Analysis for General Sales and Corporate Income Tax
Description: This Technical Assistance Report presents the estimates of tax gaps for general sales tax (GST) and corporate income tax in Costa Rica. The estimated GST compliance gap in Costa Rica increased from 29 percent in 2012 to 31 percent in 2016. The compliance gap in 2016 was equivalent to 1.9 percent of GDP. The estimated compliance gap is higher than the average value-added tax compliance gaps of European countries and Latin American countries. Large GST compliance gaps relative to GDP are observed in manufacturing, trade, and hotels and restaurants. The estimated GST policy gaps were at about 4 percent of GDP from 2012 to 2016. Most of the GST policy gap consists of the GST expenditure gap, showing the effects of policy choices.
May 28, 2018
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Netherlands
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Netherland’s economic recovery has taken hold. Real growth is forecast to reach 3.1 percent in 2018 owing to robust domestic demand. Private consumption has been supported by rising disposable income and positive wealth effects from increasing housing prices. Net exports have proven resilient to global uncertainties, pushing up the already large current account surplus. Unemployment has continued to decline rapidly, although most of the jobs have been created under temporary contracts or self-employment status. The economy is expected to keep its momentum in the coming years. Domestic consumption and investment are forecast to remain the main drivers of growth, prompting a gradual decline of the current account surplus.
May 28, 2018
Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the wage moderation in the Netherlands. Wage growth has been subdued in the Netherlands despite tighter labor market conditions in recent years. Besides various cyclical factors, rising labor market flexibility may have contributed to the wage moderation in the Netherlands. Like other advanced economies, slower productivity growth and lower expected inflation are important drivers to the wage moderation in the recent years. In addition to that, remaining slack in the labor market also weighed on wage growth. Going forward, wages are expected to grow faster given higher expected inflation, foreign wage spillovers, and tightening labor market.
May 24, 2018
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the drivers of wage growth and inflation in Estonia. The analysis reveals that the role played by the inflation and inflation expectations in Estonia is different from those of the EU15. The impact of inflation on wage formation is smaller than in larger and richer countries with lower inflation volatility. This has limited the downward pressure on wages during the period of very low inflation in 2014–16. Although there has been an episode of wage growth leading inflation before the global financial crisis, the current simultaneous acceleration in prices and wages is not evidence of a developing wage-price spiral, as a significant share of the increase in inflation is owing to exogenous factors.
May 24, 2018
Republic of Estonia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Estonia is gathering steam after several years of subdued growth. Real GDP grew by 4.9 percent in 2017, more than double the rate achieved a year earlier. Growth remains broad-based, and supported by strong private and public investment—the latter partly reflecting increased absorption of European Union structural funds—and favorable external conditions. However, output runs above its sustainable level, and supply-side constraints are becoming more binding. The outlook is positive. Over the medium term, growth is set to remain at about 3.5 percent, supported by the continuing recovery of main trading partners, domestic investment, accommodative financial conditions, and continued strong market sentiment.
May 21, 2018
Montenegro: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the long-term growth prospects and the output gap in Montenegro. Historical growth in Montenegro was driven mostly by capital with some contribution from labor, while total factor productivity (TFP) contributed negatively. Going forward, in the baseline growth accounting framework with no reforms, employment will likely have a slightly negative contribution because of demographic dynamics unless both labor force participation and unemployment improve significantly. The highway project will contribute to capital accumulation in the near term, but the contribution from capital accumulation will likely fall despite relatively high investment ratios. Based on historical performance, the contribution from TFP is likely limited and constitutes the main bottleneck for long-term growth prospects in the no-reform baseline.
May 21, 2018
Montenegro: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s economy is growing strongly, boosted by the implementation of large investment projects, including the construction of the Bar-Boljare highway. Growth should continue over the medium term, albeit at a more moderate pace as highway construction ends. The IMF staff projects the economy to expand by 3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019, with fiscal consolidation also acting as a moderate drag on growth. Although the implementation of large publicly financed infrastructure projects has added to economic growth, the accompanying use of fiscal resources has contributed to a large increase in government debt. Economic growth should remain strong in 2018, notwithstanding fiscal consolidation, and maintain momentum over the medium term.
May 21, 2018
Albania: 2018 First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions in 2018 with Albania. The Albanian economy has continued to strengthen, with real GDP growth at 3.8 percent (year-over-year) during 2017, reflecting strong domestic demand driven by a revival in construction, recovery in the labor market and household credit, and large energy-related foreign direct investment projects. Although the public-debt-to-GDP ratio declined, the pace of fiscal consolidation has slowed post-program, with arrears accumulating. Despite the favorable environment and positive short-term outlook, risks and vulnerabilities remain, emanating from high public debt, non-performing loans in the financial sector, and weaknesses in public institutions and the judicial system.
May 14, 2018
The Bahamas: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper makes the case for a rules-based fiscal framework for The Bahamas and discusses its design, calibration, and implementation. The IMF staff recommends adopting a headline deficit ceiling and a cap on current expenditure growth, both calibrated to guide debt toward a suitable medium-term anchor while allowing room for stabilization. A headline deficit target is simpler to communicate and monitor than a structural balance rule. Such a framework would allow expanding capital spending, up to the limit provided by the deficit ceiling, in the event of improvements in revenue performance. Moreover, in line with best practices, the framework should be anchored around a pre-defined medium-term debt target that will guide the calibration of proposed operation rules.