Country Reports
2018
August 22, 2018
Chad: Second Review of the Program Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, And Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
Description: This paper discusses Chad’s Second Review of the Program Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Financing Assurances Review. All but one PC for end-December 2017 were met, as were all structural benchmarks Most indicative targets for end-March 2018 were also met. The continuous PC on the nonaccumulation of external arrears was missed. The authorities are requesting waivers for the two missed PCs. The final agreement to restructure the Glencore debt was signed in June (prior action); it is in line with the program and will restore debt sustainability and generate sufficient financing for the program.
August 16, 2018
Namibia: Technical Assistance Report-Assessing and Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Entities and Public-Private Partnerships
Description: This Technical Assistance report discusses measures proposed to assess and manage fiscal risks from state-owned entities and public-private partnerships in Namibia. Fiscal risks from public entities (PEs) materialize when funding requirements are higher than expected or revenues shortfalls occur. The government’s strategy for managing PE related fiscal risks should be informed by the likelihood of PE experiencing difficulties and, in such an event, the magnitude of the potential impact on the government. A two-step methodology was proposed for assessing the likelihood of fiscal risks materializing from PE. The authorities are also considering legislative amendments to strengthen the institutional arrangements for supervising PE.
August 14, 2018
Liechtenstein: Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism-Technical Note
Description: This Technical Note evaluates the state of Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism in Liechtenstein. Liechtenstein has made significant steps and achieved considerable progress since the last mutual evaluation, particularly in bringing its legal framework more closely in line with the Financial Action Task Force recommendations, consolidating an overall robust institutional framework for combating money laundering and terrorist financing and moving toward greater transparency. Domestic cooperation is robust, and key stakeholders enjoy the trust of the financial and nonfinancial sectors. However, effective implementation is uneven and not always optimal. Liechtenstein’s proactive use of the in rem regime of confiscation of criminal proceeds has proven to be quite effective.
August 13, 2018
Cameroon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper aims at providing an empirical underpinning to fiscal policy reforms implemented by the authorities by estimating the size of fiscal multipliers in Cameroon, using a novel long quarterly data set and looking separately at the impact of changes in revenue, and government consumption and investment. The impact of government spending and taxes depends on country characteristics and the stage of the business cycle. The analysis shows that revenue and capital expenditure multipliers in Cameroon are small and comparable to those of other sub-Saharan African and low-income countries. The revenue multiplier is close to nil which implies that revenue-based fiscal consolidation would be less harmful to growth in the medium term. Compared to its peers in sub-Saharan Africa, Cameroon’s revenue multiplier is smaller as is its tax burden relative to the regional average. Conversely, government expenditure can more significantly affect output in the medium term, although the consumption multiplier is unexpectedly much higher than the investment one.
August 6, 2018
India: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses various aspects of goods and service tax (GST) on India’s tax policy. Dual rate structure with a low standard rate and an additional higher rate on select items can be progressive and preserve revenue neutrality, while streamlining exemptions would further contribute to progressivity and reduce compliance and administrative costs. Simplifying the GST is possible without imposing a significantly higher burden on the poor. There are likely significant benefits from lower costs of compliance and administration. The literature on value added tax (VAT) compliance costs shows that there is broad variation across countries; however, there is a consensus that compliance costs are regressive and administrative costs increase with complexity. While evidence on India is nascent and remains to be assessed as experience with the GST is gained, anecdotal evidence from large firms indicates sizable increases in costs, which may be even more burdensome for smaller firms. Streamlined rates would also weaken incentives to lobby for lower rates.
August 6, 2018
India: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that stability-oriented macroeconomic policies and progress on structural reforms continue to bear fruit in India. Following disruptions related to the November 2016 currency exchange initiative and the July 2017 goods and services tax rollout, growth slowed to 6.7 percent in FY2017/18, but a recovery is under way led by an investment pickup. Headline inflation averaged 3.6 percent in FY2017/18, a 17-year low, reflecting low food prices on a return to normal monsoon rainfall, agriculture sector reforms, subdued domestic demand, and currency appreciation. Growth is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 percent in FY2019/20, on strengthening investment and robust private consumption.
August 3, 2018
Hungary: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the headline inflation in Hungary has started to pick up, mainly owing to higher energy prices, while core inflation has been running sideways over the past six months, despite emerging capacity constraints. Unemployment remains on a decreasing trend, and labor shortages are intensifying despite the improvement in participation rates. The 2017 general government fiscal deficit narrowed to 2 percent of GDP, compared with the budgeted 2.4 percent. This outcome was mostly driven by strong GDP growth and reduced interest payments. The IMF staff projects the 2018 overall fiscal deficit at about 2.4 percent of GDP, in line with the budget’s target.
August 3, 2018
Brazil: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil
Description: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a mild recovery supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies is currently under way in Brazil. But the economy is underperforming relative to its potential, public debt is high and increasing, and, more importantly, medium-term growth prospects remain uninspiring, absent further reforms. Against the backdrop of tightening global financial conditions, placing Brazil on a path of strong, balanced and durable growth requires a committed pursuit of fiscal consolidation, ambitious structural reforms, and a strengthening of the financial sector architecture. Following the severe recession in 2015-16, real GDP grew by 1 percent in 2017. Growth is projected to be 1.8 and 2.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, driven by a recovery in domestic consumption and investment.
August 2, 2018
Colombia: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This fiscal transparency evaluation (FTE) report assesses fiscal transparency practices in Colombia against the first three pillars of the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code. Fiscal forecasting and budgeting—Pillar II—is the strongest area in Colombia’s FTE. Half of the related indicators are advanced, mostly in the areas of: (1) orderliness of the legislative process and the adequacy of powers and information available to Congress; (2) credibility of economic and fiscal forecasts; and (3) medium-term forecasts and policy orientation. Fiscal reporting—Pillar I—and fiscal risk analysis and management—Pillar III—also reveal clear strengths. Fiscal reporting practices are advanced in terms of the coverage of fiscal institutions in fiscal reports and timeliness of annual financial statements.
August 2, 2018
Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Princípe: 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Description: This paper discusses São Tomé and Príncipe’s 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. São Tomé and Príncipe’s GDP growth in 2017 is estimated at about 4 percent, similar to the previous two years. Inflation spiked to 7.7 percent at end 2017, caused by unfavorable weather conditions and an increase in import taxes on selective goods. Fiscal consolidation continued albeit at a slower pace than expected. The macroeconomic outlook is positive. Growth is expected to remain at 4 percent in 2018 and to accelerate to 5 percent in the medium term as new externally-financed projects get under way.